Ron Yurko

Assistant Teaching Professor, Director of Carnegie Mellon #SportsAnalytics Center @CMU_StatDS

[Ron Yurko @Stat_Ron]

It's a privilege and honor to be able to work w/ @HeismanTrophy - I consider it to be the most prestigious award in American sports, and I'm beyond excited for #CMSAC to play a role in its rich history! #Heisman #CollegeFootball #sportsanalytics

[Carnegie Mellon University @CarnegieMellon]

CMU x @HeismanTrophy 🏈📊🏆

Heisman has partnered with Carnegie Mellon and the Sports Analytics Center to develop metrics and tools to make it easier for fans to access and evaluate performance data for all positions.

[Brian Pempus @brianjpempus]

Kalshi told the CFTC it's putting up gambling markets on the admissions rate at some colleges (CNN).

Nice, 18 year olds can FINALLY have some skin in the game by placing a bet on the school they just enrolled in.

The US really needed this to remain competitive with China.

[Ron Yurko @Stat_Ron]

@bburkeESPN When did I make that assumption?

[Ron Yurko @Stat_Ron]

Two things can be true:
1) Shanahan has historically been too conservative in 4th down situations
2) Analytics twitter is overconfident in their win probability estimates
REPORTING UNCERTAINTY MATTERS https://t.co/ZRhXaTSMgh

[katsu @katsuxbt]

Kyle Shanahan says a 51% analytics recommendation won’t convince him to go for it because he gets one shot, not an hour at a blackjack table

“I don’t want to hear about it if it’s 51% of the time we should go for it.”

“As I always say, I’m not sitting here playing Blackjack for an hour with no one else at the table, and eventually I’ll get 51% of it. Like, I have this one try, and I have a feel for it. I’ve been doing it too long.”

“But what I want to know from him, when it’s not a feel, when it, no, this is 98%. We don’t even need to talk about it. So we don’t need to talk about it. Tell me when it’s that, and I’ll just do it.”

[Sam Schwartzstein @schwartzsteins]

@Stat_Ron This was a game changing paper on how we approach 4th downs on the show.

I think the biggest takeaway is if teams don't practice and gameplan 4th down differently than 3rd down and short yardage we have a problem

[Ryan Brill @RyanBrill_]

@Stat_Ron Biannual reminder: when people say "probabilities" they often should be saying "estimated probabilities". Estimates can be (often are) far from rock solid: complex feature space & sample size is smaller than you'd think --> we're uncertain about the estimates we've produced

[Ryan Brill @RyanBrill_]

@Stat_Ron Biannual reminder: when people say "probabilities" they often should be saying "estimated probabilities". Estimates can be (often are) far from rock solid: complex feature space & sample size is smaller than you'd think --> we're uncertain about the estimates we've produced

[Ron Yurko @Stat_Ron]

@Timo_NFL I get the criticism on the 'only one shot' comment - but the fact he's bringing up the difference between the 51 and 98 tells me that he's implicitly thinking about the uncertainty and not accepting the numbers at face value (he's been more conservative historically regardless)

[Ron Yurko @Stat_Ron]

@Timo_NFL You're severely understating the uncertainty in the probability estimates

[Tej Seth @tejfbanalytics]

Was lucky to research the relationship between linebackers covering ground in the run game and not biting on play action with @ericeager_ before he joined the Panthers. Most linebackers have to make a trade-off on flowing in the run game vs. staying back when the run fake is happening. Very cool to see the research is being extended on!

[Ron Yurko @Stat_Ron]

@benbbaldwin @Matt_barlowe Ben, you still need to read this paper https://t.co/ZRhXaTSMgh

[Ron Yurko @Stat_Ron]

@StevePalazzolo_ @bburkeESPN C'mon Brian, there's a difference between knowing exactly and an estimate (w/ the latter being all we have, estimates w/ uncertainty) - even if Shanahan isn't saying that explicitly, he still knows the model outputs are not guaranteed

[Ron Yurko @Stat_Ron]

@KevinCole___ I'm confused by your confusion

[Ron Yurko @Stat_Ron]

Your votes this week count for more and are getting more valuable as we cross mid-season! Jeremiath Smith is closing in on Chambliss for the lead https://t.co/rGiCBxUjas #HeismanHopefuls #HeismanFanVote #CMSAC

[Heisman @HeismanTrophy]

The Week 7 #HeismanHopefuls Fan Vote leaderboard is live! 🔥

Vote now: https://t.co/O0uAXgL5z0

[Heisman @HeismanTrophy]

The Week 7 #HeismanHopefuls Fan Vote leaderboard is live! 🔥

Vote now: https://t.co/O0uAXgL5z0

[Heisman @HeismanTrophy]

For the first time, your vote will be the first official ballot for the Heisman Trophy. 🗳️

Vote now: https://t.co/O0uAXgL5z0

[Ron Yurko @Stat_Ron]

Great paper on this subject by @RyanBrill_ & @adiwyner https://t.co/ZRhXaTSMgh #analyticshavesomehumility

[Sam Monson @SamMonsonNFL]

YES!

This is a great take on the subject!

We talked about this on the show a few weeks back.

You can't just treat it like poker or blackjack, cos you don't necessarily get the time for the math to work in your favor.

What's that line, the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent? Same idea.

You want the information; you don't want to go with the edge lean every single time just cos it says 51%.

[Tangotiger 🍁 @tangotiger]

This is a VERY sweet way to both show observed data and the "shrunken" (estimated talent) data

I don't think I've ever seen that before?

Let me tag a few interested folks @Stat_Ron @StatsbyLopez @SchuckersM

[The Blown Lead Paradox @blownleadbot]

Steelers 26, Buccaneers 19. Oct. 18, 2026.

Tampa Bay (41.5%) reached 91.0% win probability, up 16–3 with 0:00 left in Q3.

Under our benchmark, a collapse this extreme occurs in 9.93% of games. For teams starting at 41.5%, 7.03% of losses are this extreme.

WP: @ESPN

[Tej Seth @tejfbanalytics]

Notre Dame going for a 4th & 4 and converting. Thank you Anthony Treash

[Stewart Mandel @slmandel]

In other news, UNC just beat Duke for the Victory Bell and is now 4-2. ... The turnaround is underway.