PJ Stock

Data Analyst, @survation

[PJ Stock @pjsurvation]

Sure to be a good one!

[Compass @CompassOffice]

Tonight at 6pm we have a LIVE recording of our podcast focusing on the fallout of the Holborn & St. Pancras by-election!

Our Director Neal and Deputy Director Lena are joined by @DamianSurvation and @FayeBrownSky!

Listen wherever you get your podcasts.

[PJ Stock @pjsurvation]

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In January, 13% of people who voted Labour in 2024 said they would vote Green, and 54% would stick with Labour. Now 6% say Green and 75% say Labour.

[PJ Stock @pjsurvation]

How has Labour consolidated since Jan?

In late Jan, Survation had Reform on 31%, Labour 18% and Greens on 12%. Our latest poll (2 to 5 October) has Labour 30%, Reform 24% and Greens on 8%. Labour has gone from 13pp behind Reform to 6 ahead, now as a 22pp lead over Greens

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[PJ Stock @pjsurvation]

Where next for Greens? Our latest polling shows them at the lower range of their 2026 polling, and no longer most trusted even on environment

[Damian Lyons Lowe @DamianSurvation]

1/4 A difficult defeat for the Greens. Polanski lost 33% to Labour’s 45%: a 3-point gap in May (inc CPA) is now 12, despite standing their leader and flooding the seat with activists. The “22-point rise/swing on 2024” ignores Feinstein’s 19%. Against the combined 29%, it’s about +3.

[PJ Stock @pjsurvation]

@charliemansell @Survation Sadly no, just in the area!

[PJ Stock @pjsurvation]

The @Survation team were out and about in Holborn and St Pancras this afternoon

(The cat declined to say who it was supporting)

[PJ Stock @pjsurvation]

Labour now lead Reform by 9 points on average across the 16 issues.

Reform lead only on immigration, by 7 points (12 in July).

On the economy, Labour have gone from 1 point behind to 10 ahead.

On pensions, Labour lead by 9, up from level in July.

[PJ Stock @pjsurvation]

Looking at which parties voters trust on the issues:

In our 15 July poll, Labour led on 7/16 issues

The Conservatives led on the economy, defence and culture, and the Greens on the environment and climate change.

Reform led on 5 issues.

Today, Labour lead on 15/16

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[Damian Lyons Lowe @DamianSurvation]

Labour at 30% in our latest poll, the highest we've seen since December 2024. A six-point lead over Reform and the third lead outside the margin of error since Andy Burnham became PM. The Budget later this month is clearly the next test.

[PJ Stock @pjsurvation]

Labour are at 30% for the first time since December 2024 in our latest poll - at that time Reform were on 20%

https://t.co/b2R2BLFWDm

[Survation. @Survation]

NEW: Westminster Voting Intention

LAB 30% (+1)
RFM 24% (+1)
CON 19% (=)
LD 9% (=)
GRN 8% (-1)
SNP 2% (-1)
RB 2% (-1)
PC 2% (+1)
OTH 3% (-1)

F/w 2-5 October 2026. Changes vs 29/09/2026

[Damian Lyons Lowe @DamianSurvation]

NEW from Survation analyst PJ Stock on the current Conservative Party Fortunes:
Seventeen polls, no movement: Conservatives stuck between 18% and 21% since June 2025. That is despite Badenoch's net rating of +9 and her standing improving among Labour and Reform voters.

The Tories are winning almost no one new. Of their 19%, nearly 15 points come from people who voted Conservative in 2024 and fewer than 5 from everyone else.

Badenoch scores level with Farage as best Prime Minister, both on 21%. Both trail Burnham on 37%.

Conservatives on course for third place, outside both government and opposition for the first time in their history. The MRP projects 85 seats, behind Labour on 272 and Reform on 153.

However - tactical voting could put the Tories ahead of Reform: 131 seats to 62. In our MRP, 18% of voters say they would switch in a two-horse race, and 46 of the 91 seats Reform would lose go to the Conservatives:

[PJ Stock @pjsurvation]

New article - how does Kemi Badenoch's approval compare to her party's?

[Survation. @Survation]

Is Kemi more popular than her party, and what does this mean for the Conservatives?

The Conservatives are on 19% in Survation's latest Westminster voting intention poll, conducted for Mandate Research on the 29th of September, the day of Andy Burnham's conference speech

In all 17 of our polls since June 2025, the Conservatives have been between 18% and 21%.

Read the full story by @pjsurvation here:
https://t.co/xakjK9U0JV

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