Actualmente seguimos en uno de los períodos más fríos de la historia del planeta. Existen numerosos precedentes de calentamientos globales similares o más intensos y rápidos que el actual.
Esta es una adaptación del clip de la NOAA con la reconstrucción más reciente y aceptada de la temperatura media de la tierra en los últimos 485 millones de años (Emily J. Judd et al., 2024) .
La propia NOAA al final de la animación dice que en el calentamiento actual (que se enmarca en el calentamiento del periodo interglaciar actual desde hace 12.000 años) la influencia del hombre ha sido mínima.
Fossil fuels did not cause the CO2 rise. PERIOD.
Here is why we know, without wiggle room:
Every carbon source has an isotope fingerprint.
Fossil carbon: -28‰.
Ocean outgassing: -8‰. Standard values. Undisputed. In every carbon-cycle textbook. Used by the IPCC itself.
The Keeling plot reads the fingerprint of whatever is actually being added to the atmosphere. Pure mass balance. No models. No parameterizations. No assumptions.
Scripps measured it at four stations, Barrow to the South Pole, from 1978 to now.
Answer: -13.2‰.
Not -28.
Not close to -28.
Not fossil fuel.
Caribbean sclerosponges preserve that same fingerprint back to 1500 AD.
Same value.
About -13‰.
For five centuries.
Across those five centuries fossil emissions rose from essentially zero to roughly 10 billion tons of carbon per year. A ten thousand fold increase.
The isotope needle did not move.
If fossil combustion were driving atmospheric CO2, that needle would have swung hard toward -28‰.
It did not budge.
The two endmember mixing equation is arithmetic a middle schooler can do. Plug in -13.2 for the observed signature, -28 for fossil, -8 for ocean outgassing.
The fossil share of the net atmospheric addition cannot exceed 26%.
Then apply the five century constancy. In 1500 AD fossil emissions were essentially zero, so the observed -13‰ signature had to be the natural signature itself. That fixes the natural mix at -13‰. Plug that in with the modern -13.2‰.
Fossil share of the net addition: 1.3%.
Within noise of zero.
To escape the conclusion you must reject one of:
1. Elementary algebra applied to mass conservation
2. The isotope endmember values the entire carbon-cycle literature has used for sixty years
3. The Scripps and sclerosponge datasets the IPCC itself relies on
Nobody rejects any of them.
The rise in atmospheric CO2 is not the residue of your gas tank.
The isotopes rule it out.
Full stop.
«En rojas, los marcadores de Vinícius la ven cada 68 faltas graves y cada 11 los de Lamine. En Europa, Lamine y Vinícius empatan. Cada tres faltas los rivales de ambos ven amarilla. Cada tres. Los dos».
https://t.co/DD80KbEp27
The surface of the Greenland Ice Sheet has gained more than 500 billions tons of new ice over the past year, which is about 150 billion tons above the 1981-2010 average, and the largest increase in at least nine years.
https://t.co/Ekp80rmuR0
Recordatorio de que el salario real medio en España ha crecido solo un 2,8% desde 1994.
En la media de la OCDE ha avanzado un 30,9% y en Estados Unidos un 47,5%.
Treinta años de crecimiento que apenas se notan en el poder adquisitivo de las nóminas.
La productividad por hora estancada y una cuña fiscal que absorbe una parte creciente del coste laboral explican esta evolución.