Professor Ratchet

seeker, builder, investor, father, biker

[Professor Ratchet @plasticmpire]

@DanielleFong Strong employment + hot inflation makes the anticipated interest rate cut less likely. Higher rates reduce the present value of future cash flows, especially very distant ones (like high growth/low current dividend stocks). Also got to flush some options degens before expiry.

[Professor Ratchet @plasticmpire]

@Neondancer People keep offering to sell me their 335i and I keep saying no but one of these days I’ll get another bmw. Just wondering if there’s a path to make these reliable or if it’s just a flawed design.

[Professor Ratchet @plasticmpire]

@KeystonePRIME @Neondancer Or 2jz…

[Professor Ratchet @plasticmpire]

@Howlingmutant0

[Professor Ratchet @plasticmpire]

So if you aren’t paying you aren’t going to get professional quality results. And despite headline performance numbers looking very close, different models have wildly different strengths and weaknesses. I frankly cannot stand chat gpt just because of the tone, but I use Claude daily and grok/Gemini occasionally to cross check and do specific things that they seem to handle better.

[Professor Ratchet @plasticmpire]

HS shop had one throw a 2x4 10ft back and punch through the cinder block wall so they left it there and painted a bullseye around it as a reminder. The shop teacher had cut off the same thumb twice in the bandsaw and had it reattached both times. And I have a friend who lost the end of his index finger in a jointer. Woodworking is no joke.

[Professor Ratchet @plasticmpire]

@mattbramanti I just wish it had a blade lock. I see someone on eBay makes a version with bamboo scales and a liner lock that isn’t too expensive but the blade is painted and looks like crap compared to the real deal.

[Professor Ratchet @plasticmpire]

Yeah, my folks have owned a place in the mountains west of DC for my whole life and it’s always a mix of excitement and trepidation when you see the dozers coming in. On the one hand you can now get a decent cup of coffee in the little town nearby and there’s like 3 new breweries - on the other you have to sit in traffic waiting to turn onto the main road because it wasn’t designed for 1000 cars a day. As long as I can still ride my dirtbike and shoot a 30-06 off the back deck without the neighbors calling the police it’s kind of fine with me but at some point that will not be possible and it will be time to sell.

[Professor Ratchet @plasticmpire]

@Empty_America Sending my 10yo to one of those in a few weeks. We’ll see how it goes! They do offer one power strip in each bunkhouse and the kids are advised to bring a small fan but otherwise no electronics.

[Professor Ratchet @plasticmpire]

@orthodoxmason Yeah out on the edge of cavendish and hoping to build a cabin soon so paying more attention than usual to the old + still standing buildings I see around there.

[Professor Ratchet @plasticmpire]

@Empty_America (demonic possession and heresy?)

[Professor Ratchet @plasticmpire]

@_DanielSinclair I want a big one (small tractor size) that has the backup battery for the house.

[Professor Ratchet @plasticmpire]

@AJA_Cortes So I believe the crude that comes from fracking has less of the precursor material for diesel so it’s relatively scarce in North America. If California allowed development of their heavy oil or we get more from Canada/Venezuela it could get cheap again.

[Spencer Pratt @spencerpratt]

@drealMstenberg They can have nothing

[Professor Ratchet @plasticmpire]

I’ve seen some worrying info about opaque/offshore/leveraged structures inside insurance companies. I think in general those types of businesses are pretty predictable and it makes some sense for part of their portfolio to be in illiquid stuff. So if they’re using leverage judiciously, understand what they’re buying and pay good prices for the risk adjusted return there’s no problem. But the related party nature of these deals makes me think the more aggressive asset managers may actually be pillaging these insurance companies and there’s some chance it blows up in a really ugly way. My guess about the shape of the next crisis is that it’s either that the USG doesn’t have the balance sheet capacity or it chooses not to do the bail out dance again for political reasons so effectively tightening monetary conditions into a deflationary collapse. Usually the root of a real crisis is the perception that the wrong people are getting rich and they need to be disciplined somehow.

[Professor Ratchet @plasticmpire]

@AcousticDetail @xwanyex $12/sqft a year in DC wasn’t bad at the time but the “amenities” were lacking. No HVAC just an overhead door, and the spooky basement where the bathroom was located would somehow fill with 4ft of water when it rained. The support columns were all spalling with rusted rebar too.

[Professor Ratchet @plasticmpire]

@a_favioli @Empty_America Yes and the prop tax rates are increasingly absurd.

[Professor Ratchet @plasticmpire]

@metroTM33 That thing was a potato chip

[Professor Ratchet @plasticmpire]

Yup it’s insane and the top motogp riders generally are prohibited from competing for safety reasons so there’s a few “specialists” who win it repeatedly because they have the 37mi course memorized. The Dunlop family is the prime example and has 3/4 members killed racing, but the survivor Michael has the most wins ever and is still competing this year.