Most People Will NEVER Own Meaningful Bitcoin.
Not because they can't.
But because they won’t - cognitively, emotionally, and behaviorally.
This thread will show you, with ruthless data, how IQ, time preference, and wealth concentration are forming a brutal flywheel that almost nobody is ready for.
By the time you understand it, the harvest will already be over.
🧵Let's break it down: 👇
gold and 117 other elements are made of atoms, but no one is confuses gold with other elements. analogously, bitcoin is made of cryptography, software, networks grounded to physical scarcity with proof of work; and no one should confuse bitcoin with an unlimited alt coins.
It's official:
The Fed's Reverse Repo Facility (RRP) is now down ~$2.5 TRILLION from its peak in December 2022.
The US is borrowing so much debt to fund deficit spending that the RRP has been DEPLETED to a 1,386 day low.
What does it mean? Let us explain.
(a thread)
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Bitcoin miner MARA embedded a portrait of President Trump in a BTC block to honor his upcoming inauguration.
The first pro-Bitcoin US president 🙌
5 years ago today, Bitcoin was trading at $17,415.
-no lightning network
-hashrate was 95% lower
-no legal tender status anywhere in the world
-no Bitcoin on the Tesla balance sheet
-no Michael Saylor
-no Paypal/Robinhood/Cashapp/SoFi
-no taproot
-China was biggest market
1/2
The $42 Billion "Saylor Put" on spot #Bitcoin, will impact market like this:
Bookmark this and let's see if the year works out like this.
Saylor is clearly running through this in a year, not 3 years. They've used $7bn in 2 weeks.
So assuming that is the pace, $42 Billion over approximately 252 trading days.
That's a bid in the market on average of $167m EVERY SINGLE DAY - from one buyer.
If we take the daily mined supply, 450 #Bitcoin and add 30% for a selling/trading float and to be conservative.
We have 585 #Bitcoin in play on average daily.
That gives us a floor price, because Saylor can buy all of those daily.
Of $285,000 per coin.
It will not immediately jump up there, it will take time to flush out sales, empty OTC desks etc
But, when it does, we will see rapid rises - probably more rapid than we're used to.
Should that happen, MSTR's valuation will expand 3x to $150bn - assuming no hysteria, no parabolic, no one else buying and no "bull run" coming.
Saylor can then issue $100bn against that and do the same thing, that would be a $100bn Put in the market guaranteeing a floor price of $686,000 per coin for the next year - in what would traditionally be known as "bear market".
Wall Street will understand this, cease up all selling from ETFs, Miners and then we go from 585 coin daily selling float, to 200 coins with OTC desks empty and thats when things get spooky.
This is assuming they do not do this faster, it assumes there's no other buyers - like America - entering the market, it assumes retail stays out and it assumes NONE of the "bull market" even happens.
This is JUST @saylor.
The S curve cometh.
9/ Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index (CBECI)
Understand Bitcoin’s environmental impact.
This tool tracks Bitcoin’s electricity usage and compares it to other industries. Designed by Cambridge University.