PoliHorizon

Prediction markets, elections & the odds shaping politics.
Not a financial advice.

[PoliHorizon @PoliHorizon]

@PpollingNumbers Hinson +5 looks believable. Her prediction-market odds still look too low—especially with her already at 50%.

[PoliHorizon @PoliHorizon]

@KJVPopulist That wasn’t a small miss. NH’s final polling average overstated Republicans by 7.7 points in 2022.

A repeat would make today’s tight polls—and election odds—look very different.

[PoliHorizon @PoliHorizon]

@PolPredictions If it is true, the prediction markets are mispriced very badly

[PoliHorizon @PoliHorizon]

@PollTracker2024 HUGE amount of undecideds.

Reminds me some recent Democrat internals

[PoliHorizon @PoliHorizon]

@jeremybhughes The real question: will Lombardo's coattails be enough to flip House seats?

[PoliHorizon @PoliHorizon]

@BostonGlobe Calling the winners was the easy part. Massachusetts tested something more interesting: could Kalshi traders nail the margins, too?

[PoliHorizon @PoliHorizon]

@DumpTrump_45 “Might lose” is underselling it. Polymarket traders are already treating Shaheen as a long shot.

[PoliHorizon @PoliHorizon]

@1980Khoa Maine polling buried Collins in 2020. She won by nearly 9.

So a poll already showing her ahead may be worse news for Jackson than it looks.

[PoliHorizon @PoliHorizon]

One Kalshi election-odds market is quietly building a pretty good track record.

Not the winner market.

The margin market.

South Carolina was on point.

Massachusetts just backed it up.

With the 2026 midterms approaching, @KalshiPolitics may have found one of the more useful prediction-market products:

not just who wins an election — but by how much.

[PoliHorizon @PoliHorizon]

Massachusetts gave us one real scare last night.

And it was the one we kept pointing to: MA-08.

Stephen Lynch survived Patrick Roath, but this was clearly the most competitive of the three Democratic contests we tracked.

What does that change for November midterms?

Almost nothing.

Massachusetts still has only one House district that is even remotely interesting: MA-09.

And even that one usually needs a very red environment to become a real election contest.

Primary drama ≠ November battleground.

[PoliHorizon @PoliHorizon]

Polls are closed in Massachusetts’ Democratic primaries.

Now we get to test three very different market prices.

MA-SEN: Markey was priced almost untouchable.

MA-06: Koh’s price depended heavily on a fragmented field.

MA-08: Lynch carried the biggest warning signs.

Which market priced the primary best — and which one bought too much certainty?

[PoliHorizon @PoliHorizon]

Less than 90 minutes until polls close in the Massachusetts primary.

If tonight has a surprise, MA-08 still has the cleanest setup.

A long-time incumbent.

A funded challenger.

A rapidly narrowing contest.

And prediction markets still pricing Stephen Lynch with real confidence.

We’ve already seen 98% primary favorites lose this year.

Now we find out whether this is another one.

[PoliHorizon @PoliHorizon]

Massachusetts primary markets, four hours before polls close:

Markey: 99% — hard to argue with.

Koh: 89% — the split field still protects him.

Lynch: 80% — this is where I’m less comfortable.

Given Roath’s polling move and fundraising strength, is 80% still the right price for Lynch?

[PoliHorizon @PoliHorizon]

@PatriotLedger 99% doesn’t tell you how we got here.
Moulton was competitive early. The collapse in his market price is the more interesting story.

[PoliHorizon @PoliHorizon]

@metrowestdaily The odds are the easy part.
The real story is how a once-competitive Markey–Moulton market turned into near-total certainty.

[PoliHorizon @PoliHorizon]

@boston25 The headline race may not be the most interesting one tonight.
MA-08 is where the market still has the most to prove.

[PoliHorizon @PoliHorizon]

@KalshiPolitics That is a LANDSLIDE margin.

Is it overvalued?

[PoliHorizon @PoliHorizon]

@baseballot The progressive wing got more than Biden in EVERY congressional district

[PoliHorizon @PoliHorizon]

@WMassNews The statewide race may be the least interesting market tonight.
MA-08 is where the real uncertainty sits — and where traders could still be surprised.

[PoliHorizon @PoliHorizon]

Prediction markets are treating Massachusetts’ three Democratic primaries very differently today.

And for good reason.

MA-08: Roath has money, momentum and a real upset profile.

MA-06: Nguyen has a lane — but she’s still sharing it.

MA-SEN: Moulton had a viable challenge. It just collapsed.

The question now is whether traders are still giving Lynch too much credit at his current price.