Very excited to put up a draft of my paper with @AmritaKulka: "Agglomeration Over the Long Run:
Evidence from County Seat Wars"
https://t.co/5y63kUw4Pw
@instrumenthull A curiosity: if you make strong assumptions on independence (RCT), is it ever more efficient to do something other than OLS? The idea would be residualizing X just adds noise
More formally: GMM where you add lack of correlation with T and X as moments?
Unsurprisingly, Trump's immigration crackdown is still not delivering labor market improvements for the US-born
Over the last year, the native-born unemployment rate has increased from 4.2% to 4.3%, while native-born employment rates have decreased
When Obama sent Iran $400m + $1.3bn in interest in 2016 Trump called it "insane" and he and others spent a decade mocking the idea of "pallets of cash" even though it was Iran's own money, American prisoners were released, courts were likely to require the U.S. payment, and Iran had just agreed to significant and verified reductions and restrictions on its nuclear program for 15+ years. Now Trump is giving Iran up to ten times that amount of revenue--one of the most significant measures of sanctions relief provided to the Islamic Republic since its founding--in exchange for marginal and temporary relief from the big increase in oil prices his actions have caused, without any concessions from Tehran, and even as Iran continues to target the United States, its allies, and world oil supplies. No way to read as anything other than desperate recognition of the situation Trump's own actions have created and the lack of available alternatives for dealing with it.
Any U.S. citizen can end up in one of these horrific concentration camps.
Maybe they'll let you go once they realize their mistake, after 3 months of hunger, disease, and abuse, with no recourse.
All it would take to stop this is a handful of brave Republicans.
@BlatantlyDumb I half agree on #1: depends on who the next president is (we don’t know). Continuity with the admin is possible, change takes work
Fair on #2, but can be informative if you haven’t been following its actions recently (or just needed a reminder)
There is ZERO evidence that the Bureau of Labor Statistics is manipulating the data, not the CPI, not payrolls earlier this week.
I am not being naive and people are watching carefully for signs of tampering. Such accusations now are harmful to economic discussions.