Tim Yin

[Loren Adler @LorenAdler]

One of the most under-appreciated stories in health care

[Lisa Desjardins @LisaDNews]

AP: Darline Graham clearly beats Ralph Norman in SC GOP Senate primary.

She is winning by some 17,000 votes currently... which... is exactly the margin Horry County gave her, where the Trump rally happened.

(As friends in SC point out - he can claim an even more clear role in her victory.)

[Jay Van Bavel, PhD @jayvanbavel]

Social media discourse is driven by false #polarization

Analyzing 1.7 million social media posts, a series of controlled experiments, and a large global survey covering 40 countries (total N = 49,222), we find that

(1) strong ideologues post their opinions significantly more often than moderate individuals
(2) extreme attitudes are posted more often than moderate attitudes.
(3) This general pattern replicates robustly across 40 countries
(4) the opinions that users post are more hostile and toxic than the beliefs they keep to themselves.

Across studies we find extreme opinions are overrepresented on social media by at least 6% and up to 22% compared to their true prevalence in our samples.
https://t.co/NKovC9Uisj

This project was led by @small_schulz and @ClaireRobertson and includes @H_Sjastad @AshuAshok @LisaFOswaldo @junghwanyang @simonsaysnothin and @andyguess

[Foreign Affairs @ForeignAffairs]

“Data from organizations and governments tracking illegal activity suggests that the Chinese illicit economy generates nearly $1 trillion in revenue annually, about the size of Switzerland’s GDP,” writes @alvincamba.
https://t.co/c1W1QtPyBC

[Rosemary Kelanic @RKelanic]

Fighting over the Strait of Hormuz isn’t worth the cost. Trump needs to quit the war and leave, even if Iran assumes control of the strait, I argue in today’s @nytimes.

It’s a bad outcome, but it’s reality — the cost of a foolish war.

https://t.co/AXRXJc1Z5f

[Rush Doshi @RushDoshi]

NEW in @ForeignAffairs: For this issue's cover, Kurt Campbell and I challenge the new fatalism about American alliances. We argue:

1️⃣ The alliances have weathered forgotten shocks at least this serious before, and today's are about Trump, not a permanent new politics.

2️⃣ The threats that built the alliances are intensifying and converging as China and Russia draw together.

3️⃣ Deep economic, technological, and military currents are pulling allies toward Washington faster than they can de-risk away.

The new fatalism risks becoming self-fulfilling. Convinced the alliances cannot be saved, policymakers may stop trying to save them. But the question is not whether the alliances will endure but whether they can evolve into something new — platforms for building allied scale in a world where China, backed by Russia, outscales us all.

We think they can. The United States will need to launch a presidential effort to rebuild and refashion the alliance system. It will need to credibly declare that the current damage is the product of personality not enduring policy, repudiate threats against Greenland, and start small with allies.

That means modest, defined projects with ad hoc coalitions on the issues of greatest consensus (medicine, minerals, munitions). Quick wins build momentum for more ambitious efforts. And Biden projects like AUKUS and even Trump's effort on critical minerals provide a model.

None of this is guaranteed, but neither is it implausible. The United States and its allies have agency. As attention turns to the world after Trump, the debate over the future needs more pragmatism and less despair.

Thread below.

[FIRE @TheFIREorg]

The day of reckoning for Brendan Carr is finally here. Carr has repeatedly shown he won’t hesitate to weaponize the FCC against outlets the Trump administration dislikes. Snarky tweets and the president petting him on the back is not going to help him any longer.

ABC is right to stand up to Carr’s pressure tactics.

In America, government officials cannot abuse their regulatory power to threaten the First Amendment.

[Li Yuan袁莉 @LiYuan6]

In a Chinese Leader’s Death, Mourning for a More Hopeful Time
Tributes for former Premier Zhu Rongji reflect nostalgia for an era when China was opening to the world and the future seemed more prosperous and hopeful. My latest https://t.co/stXWsExTR8

[Perspectives on Politics @PoPpublicsphere]

NOW OUT ON FIRSTVIEW!!

I Read the News Today, but Why? #Media #Consumption, #Socialization, & #Autocracy

By Samuel A. Greene

https://t.co/BppurVUQXJ

[The Wall Street Journal @WSJ]

North Korea is building a secret workforce inside the U.S. We investigate how stolen IDs, deepfakes and American accomplices help funnel millions to the regime. https://t.co/XD689rQpBG

[Damien Ma @damienics]

Imagine a press conference like this today. Instead we have a lot relitigating the wisdom of having China enter the WTO.

But we forget just how political it was in China and how much someone like Zhu had to sell it back home to get it through. It wasn't like China just waltzed into it.

[The Economist @TheEconomist]

China averages nearly 100m riders a day on its metro systems, about half of the world’s total. Crimes, big or small, are vanishingly rare on them. But the layer upon layer of safety at the country’s stations is overkill https://t.co/mhYYKoWpFk

[OKC THUNDER @okcthunder]

RUSSELL 💙 🧡

To a legend on and off the floor, congrats on retirement and thank you for everything you gave to the city @russwest44

[Russell Westbrook @russwest44]

Sometimes you don’t even know when you’ve already watched the end.

You had to be there. And now it’s over.

[ESPN @espn]

The Lakers are being sold to American businessman Josh Kushner and Bob Iger for over $12 billion, a record-breaking price, multiple sources told @ramonashelburne.

[The New York Times @nytimes]

Breaking News: Zhu Rongji, the former Chinese premier who helped guide his country toward a market-based economy in the 1990s, died at 97. https://t.co/ieanXMysMw

[Jordan Weissmann @JHWeissmann]

People are like: "There's no way Mississippi is really richer than the UK."

Meanwhile:

[Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 @PollTracker2024]

Another polling miss in Minnesota but this time it underestimated the progressive candidate unlike Michigan and Wisconsin.

[Tim Yin @politimal]

"Alaska's new electoral system provided more choice for voters and appears to have driven changes in both electoral outcomes...winning candidates were more likely to be centrists willing to work across the aisle and espouse moderate policy positions" https://t.co/PyHa3hZVfH

[Taniel @Taniel]

Elon Musk is now pouring money into repealing ranked-choice voting in Alaska, per the Anchorage Daily News: https://t.co/4WSPLWXzSm

[Chad Jones @ChadJonesEcon]

Very happy to see "AI and Our Economic Future" published. Thanks to the team at the JEP, especially @TimothyTTaylor and @heidilwilliams_ . https://t.co/Rc8OWL6BlN