Polls to Seats

Translating the Irish and N. Irish General Election and Assembly polls from percentages to seats. Aggregates all polling companies to get seat projections.

[Polls to Seats @pollstoseats]

I have an excel document running calculating on a constituency basis what seats count each party should have based on the polling data (it also takes into account the polls typical inaccuracies). I check the sheet manually each time it updates with new polling data.

[Polls to Seats @pollstoseats]

I am currently looking into where and how this result could have been predicted based on my current method and data. Really interesting to compare.

[Eoghan Kelly @eoghankll]

I'm not going to wait for Cavan-Monaghan to finish this off.

Here are the final results for the projections by @pollstoseats @peterdonaghy @Ireland_Votes & @irishelectproj

SD & Lab were generally underestimated and Independents over estimated.

[Polls to Seats @pollstoseats]

@irishelectproj @eoghankll @peterdonaghy @Ireland_Votes Different data is probably true regardless. Aggregating polls v not aggregating, weighting polls, if and what data was used for transfers.

Great to see this in one place for anyone who’s comparing.

[Polls to Seats @pollstoseats]

Oh that’s interesting. Robbie Loughlin eliminated and Bryn Edwards not even though they have the same 2nd count in Dublin Fingal West.

[Polls to Seats @pollstoseats]

https://t.co/mT1Fz2lVtn

[Polls to Seats @pollstoseats]

This includes factors such as change in party leadership, retired incumbents, councillor, senator and TD status and change in party affiliations.

[Polls to Seats @pollstoseats]

The Exit Poll Projection (2nd try)

Taking the 2020 exit poll against the 2024 exit poll and putting the difference against each party (including independents) in each constituency, l have the following projection.

FF: 49
SF: 48
FG: 37
SD: 8
PBP: 5
L: 4
II: 2
A: 1
GP: 0
I&O: 20

[Polls to Seats @pollstoseats]

Hold up, there were some mistakes in the last one. Getting fresh figures now.

[Polls to Seats @pollstoseats]

This includes factors such as change in party leadership, retired incumbents, councillor, senator and TD status and change in party affiliations.

[Polls to Seats @pollstoseats]

@NeilGerardFox @JamesDonnellySF Waterford has 4 seats in the link, you might be looking at Tipp South. It’s not the most use friendly but it’s free and I’m not an organisation.

[Polls to Seats @pollstoseats]

📣 If an Irish General Election was called tomorrow 📣

This is the new aggregated seat projection after adding todays’ Red C poll.

FF: 48 (+12)
SF: 45 (+10)
FG: 36 (+6)
SD: 6
PBP: 3 (-2)
II: 3
A: 1
L: 1 (-5)
GP: 0 (-12)
I&O: 31 (+11)

https://t.co/A7xYhHm5fa

[Polls to Seats @pollstoseats]

@JamesDonnellySF Not specifically but the link shows the breakdown per constituency.

[Polls to Seats @pollstoseats]

@Brianokanecork There’s just a lot more factors. This is based on a 5.04% national vote, so a 73.9% increase. Thing is that they only got 3 seats above 10% 1st pref and 2 of those retired. Without as many SF transfers they need 10%. There’s 6 for me and all get in here, there’s more close to it.

[Polls to Seats @pollstoseats]

@Clearpreso This is based on the 5% polling number as stated. This is measured on a seat by seat (constituency) level but since this is not my standard prediction I don’t have track of the seats for this.

If 5% occurs for Aontu, that is a +150% compared to 2020.

[Polls to Seats @pollstoseats]

This is the prediction if you count only the most recent Ireland Thinks poll.

(Compared to current seats)

SF: 44 (+9)
FF: 42 (+6)
FG: 39 (+7)
A: 7 (+6)
SD: 6
II: 4 (+1)
PBP: 2 (-3)
L: 1 (-5)
GP: 0 (-12)
I&O: 29 (+9)

[Polls to Seats @pollstoseats]

@____theo___ Honestly mine is very different for Donegal with 9% higher for SF, 10% lower for FF, 6% lower for FG, and the rest within the MoE.

Galway West was entirely within the MoE.

[Polls to Seats @pollstoseats]

My projections using national polling are within the margin of error for all the below parties except from FF which polled here 5.5% above my projection.

[Ireland Votes @Ireland_Votes]

POLL/POBALBHREITH - Kerry

FF: 24% (+3)
SF: 15% (-5)
FG: 14% (-3)
GP: 3% (-2)
LAB: 2% (new)
AON: 1%
INDIRL: 1% (new)
PBP-S: 1% (new)
IFP: 0% (new)
INDs & Others: 39% (+6)

+/- vs. 2020 election

Via @NuachtTG4/@IpsosBandA
D: 21-22 Samh/Nov 2024
S: ~500

#GE24 #Ireland #Poll

[Polls to Seats @pollstoseats]

@____theo___ My Mayo Projection is very similar but 4.5% lower for FG

[Polls to Seats @pollstoseats]

However, this actually would not change my current projection of 1FF, 1FG, 1SF and 2 Independents.

[Polls to Seats @pollstoseats]

@LaymansScience That is already a potential possibility on current polling

[Polls to Seats @pollstoseats]

What %s are needed if you want a left alliance/non FF FG government?

(SF, GP, L, SD, PBP)

SF: 26% (+2)
FF: 17% (-5)
FG: 14% (-7)
GP: 6% (-1)
L: 9% (+5)
SD: 8% (+5)
PBP: 5% (+2)
A: 2%
II: 2%
I&O: 13% (+2)

This isn’t a projection nor considered likely to happen.

[Polls to Seats @pollstoseats]

@daithi232 One thing to note is that the bookies are not saying the 3 favourites are their likeliest ones to get in together, just that those are the 3 (by themselves) that are most likely to get a seat. If one FF candidate there does get in, the second does become less likely.

[Polls to Seats @pollstoseats]

@daithi232 Cork North West was where they won 8.36% of the vote in 2020. If they double the vote like they are predicted nationally then yes, in my model they are predicted to gain a seat over that second FF.

Bookies model is very different to a projection.

[Polls to Seats @pollstoseats]

@daithi232 I don’t keep a record of the constituencies for this prediction which is based on the single poll showing a 5% vote share for Aontu.

My main prediction, which aggregates the polls, comes back with 3 Aontu seats with gains in Cork North-West and Cavan Monaghan.