poly baby

[poly baby @polybabye]

@0xinternetchild absolutely. there's no way it gonna happen

[Internet Child @0xinternetchild]

Odds are going up for the fall off the Iranian regime.

Great spot to limit buy NO for +42% profit in 3 months

As i said before, the conditions for that market are extremely harsh.

For it to resolve to YES you would need all the institutions of the Islamic Republic of Iran to disappear and be replaced by something entirely different.

A change of government, even if it's forced by necessity and in favor of a pro israel/US government, would not suffice.

Israel/US doesn't have to power to force Iran to radically change it's constitution. If they did it would be as a result of a total ground invasion or a popular revolt, both showing no signs of happening

And even if they could, i don't really see why they would insist on new institutions when they could just put a friendly government in power within the current insitutions

The only reason why i don't buy YES for December is because June is higher APY.

I expect odds to drop to <10% before may

[Wu @wu_8686]

$FARTCOIN pumped while everything else bled

this doesn’t feel like alt season. just a few narratives getting attention.

$BTC is still moving up, but it looks more like steady buying from $MSTR $STRC, not money flowing into alts.

looking back, the trades that worked had a few things in common:
→ people were actually paying attention
→ there was a clear reason for the move
→ it wasn’t just empty volume

everything else faded pretty quickly.

a lot of the pumps I chased only lasted 1-2 days, then got sold.

so I’m cutting some positions tomorrow and being more selective. starting to look at shorts on the weaker narratives.

on a side note, my $TRUMP short is already in profit.

what are you looking at these days?

[poly baby @polybabye]

@Mellow_ do this need WL?

[Mellow @Mellow_]

how to earn $58,000 in a day as a founder:

- be konnex
- launch nft mint on opensea
- 3 mints per wallet
- set mint price at $1
- community minted over 62,000 nfts
- team made 5 figures from sales in a day
- mint started on march 16 and ends march 23

they might end up outperforming everyone this bear market imo

mint or pass?

[PolySuccubus @polysuccubus]

$37 ➜ $15,680 Turns Best Weather Trader on Polymarket Ever. Only 1 Position

Hey everyone, wanna introduce my bro and his Biggest weather trader on Polymarket.

@0xMarchyel is trading weather markets on Polymarket… yeah, just weather.
And I want to show you one of his CRAZIEST trade

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 15°C or below on March 13?

Investment: $37.38
Buy at 0.2c 15,681 shares
Result: WON

Profit: $15,144
ROI: +40,511%

I’ve seen a lot… but this? This is next level

Unreal. Insane. Legendary. Crazy. FOMO.
Wild. Massive. Explosive. Unreal gains. Next level.

[poly baby @polybabye]

@polymarketsuc nikita is destroying my timeline

[poly baby @polybabye]

@0xtarzan1999 @saurav_tweets feels like it's becoming tough for normie like us

[Saurav @saurav_tweets]

this psg fan printed 4.5 million in a single game yesterday

he made 2 predictions:

> psg to win 1.3m → 3.8m
> chelsea to not win 1.2m → 2m

psg completely dismantled chelsea across two legs, a clean slice of revenge after the club world cup final last summer

4 more ucl matches today, can we see even bigger wins than this?

[poly baby @polybabye]

@saurav_tweets how did you find him?

[Wu @wu_8686]

Someone just placed $150k on a 4% outcome on Polymarket.

The bet: Benjamin Netanyahu leaving office before March 31.

It doesn’t make much sense at first. But looking closer, it’s not random.

At 4% odds, it’s a straight bet with big upside.

You don’t put that kind of money in unless you believe the chances are higher than what the market shows.

The account is new, but the wallet isn’t.
On-chain history shows an active NFT trader from earlier cycles. Not a bot.

His wallet: 0xd3481a261f3ee307bf821a1d7a66a79bb8b6d759

Someone who has been around and understands how these markets work - and still chose to put $150k on this.

Meanshile, Netanyahu’s office released three “proof of life” videos within 24 hours.

Each one had small issues - a strange hand shape, a warping object, a ring that disappears mid-frame.

Any one of these could be brushed off. But three in a row, with no clear live appearance, start to stand out.

This also happening during an ongoing conflict with Iran that began on Feb 28.

Officials have dismissed the concerns, but statements don’t settle uncertainty.

What this bet shows is a gap.
A $150k position at 4% suggests the bettor sees something closer to 15-20%. That’s a big difference between the market price and one person’s view.

In these markets, gaps like that usually come from either better information or a different way of reading public signals.

Right now, those video details are part of what people are looking at.

The question isn’t whether the bet is right.
It’s whether the market starts to move.

If the odds begin to rise, it means others are starting to see the same thing.

[poly baby @polybabye]

@wu_8686 trade nothing beside hold BTC is my prioritzing rn

[PolySuccubus @polysuccubus]

POV: You became the most legendary weather trader on Polymarket, made more money than most people ever imagined, and now you wake up every day living your dream life

[poly baby @polybabye]

@polymarketsuc @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade @PolymarketMoney curious. do you know how these guy been playing weather niche so well?

[Saurav @saurav_tweets]

people who hate arguing in replies after this update

[poly baby @polybabye]

@saurav_tweets nikita is here to destroy the good vibe from old day

[poly baby @polybabye]

@Kropanchik @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade Kreo app

[rari @0xwhrrari]

I gave Claude one Polymarket equation and told it to find every mispriced contract

It hasn't stopped running in 4 months

$600 → $14,190

Every Polymarket contract is priced by one formula:

C(q) = b × ln(Σ e^(qi / b))

The pricing function inside it is softmax - the same math Claude uses to pick its next token

Claude doesn't just understand this equation, it thinks in it

So I gave it a task:
"Scan every open contract, compute fair value, flag anything the market has wrong 24/7"

It finds the gap, sizes the position by Kelly, enters before the crowd corrects

Market shows 0.38, math shows 0.57, bot buys

Resolution hits, bot collects

120 days
61.2% win rate
2.31 sharpe
-3.8% max drawdown
425 trades

87% of Polymarket wallets are underwater

They trade feelings against a formula that doesn't bluff, doesn't tilt, doesn't chase losses

The edge is having something that reads the math faster than any human - and never stops looking

[poly baby @polybabye]

@DmitriyUngarov gm, feel the grind in the air