Thursday 🧵
The intermediate-term correction in precious metals is getting long in the tooth—but it’s not over yet.
Here are 5 charts I’m watching that could signal the end.
Let's Go!
The 1920-21 depression was the sharpest economic contraction in American history, yet you've probably never heard of it. Industrial production collapsed 32%. Unemployment spiked from 4% to 12% in twelve months. By every measure, this downturn dwarfed the initial shock of 1929.
President Warren Harding faced enormous pressure to "do something." Labor leaders demanded public works programs. Businessmen begged for bailouts and trade protection. Treasury Secretary Andrew Mellon advised Harding to slash government spending and let wages fall. Commerce Secretary Herbert Hoover (yes, that Hoover) pushed for massive federal intervention.
Harding chose Mellon. The federal budget dropped from $6.4 billion to $3.2 billion in two years. No stimulus packages. No bailouts. No alphabet soup of new agencies. Government employment fell 40%. When you let markets clear, they clear fast.
The recovery started in July 1921. By 1923, unemployment had dropped to 2.4% and industrial production reached new highs. The entire episode lasted eighteen months from peak to full recovery. Compare that to Japan's lost decade of intervention, or the European debt crisis that dragged on for years, or our own jobless recovery after 2008.
Most economics textbooks omit this episode because liquidating malinvestments and allowing price adjustments works exactly as free market theory predicts: a fact that destroys the Keynesian narrative that government must spend its way out of recessions. Politicians today claim they learned the lessons of the 1930s, but they studiously ignore the more important lesson of 1921.
🚜 Introducing our new series: Mining Machines — a closer look at the equipment that keeps our operations moving.
First up: the haul truck. At San Agustin, these 100-tonne trucks transport ore from the pit to the processing plant and play a critical role in daily operations. We currently operate five of these trucks on site.
Fun fact: It would take 60 fully loaded pickup trucks to carry the same amount of material as one San Agustin haul truck! 💪
REMINDER -- the gold & silver mining sector is nowhere near levels which previously corresponded with long term tops. The avg. miner would need to rise by hundreds to thousands of percentage points to reach previous top levels.
Remember, this ratio cannot go to zero... it is still bumping along generational lows.
Do not lose the forest through the trees.
FREE PODCAST with deeper analysis here ⤵️
https://t.co/KtmUgQuxRC
@brivael Would you like to know more?
Ordinary Men: Reserve Police Battalion 101 and the Final Solution in Poland: Browning, Christopher R.: 9780060995065: https://t.co/A8hh6Q4qfF: Books https://t.co/FuSo8Crk8E
Je me suis longtemps passionné pour la psychologie, et une période m'obsède plus que toutes les autres.
L'après-guerre.
Le moment où des chercheurs se sont posé la question la plus dérangeante du siècle: comment l'Allemagne nazie avait-elle transformé des pères de famille ordinaires en bourreaux de camp?
La réponse, ils ne l'ont pas trouvée chez des monstres. Ils l'ont trouvée chez des hommes parfaitement banals.
Hannah Arendt a appelé ça la banalité du mal. L'historien Christopher Browning, en étudiant le bataillon de réserve 101 (des policiers d'âge mûr, des pères, des commerçants), a montré que ce ne sont pas des fanatiques qui ont fusillé des civils, mais des hommes normaux incapables de désobéir au cadre dominant.
Puis vint Milgram. À Yale, environ deux tiers de gens ordinaires ont infligé ce qu'ils croyaient être des décharges mortelles, simplement parce qu'une autorité en blouse blanche le leur ordonnait. L'expérience de la prison de Stanford a montré la même chose sous un autre angle: donnez à quelqu'un un rôle et un cadre, et il s'y conformera jusqu'à l'inhumain.
La leçon n'est pas allemande. Elle est humaine.
Le mécanisme s'active dès qu'un cadre moral dominant fait craindre la sanction sociale plus que ne compte le témoignage de ses propres yeux. L'individu cesse de voir ce qu'il voit. Il voit ce que le cadre l'autorise à voir.
Maintenant, regardez Southampton.
Henry Nowak, 18 ans, poignardé, allongé au sol, répète aux policiers « j'ai été poignardé », « je ne peux plus respirer ».
Réponse de l'officier: « I don't think you have, mate. »
Pendant ce temps, son meurtrier retourne la situation d'une phrase: il aurait été victime d'une agression raciste. Quatre mots ont suffi pour déplacer le soupçon de l'agresseur vers la victime.
Et l'officier a obéi. Pas à un ordre. À un cadre.
Un cadre qui lui a appris, pendant des années, qu'une plainte pour racisme est l'accusation la plus dangereuse de sa carrière. Plus dangereuse, dans son réflexe conditionné, qu'un corps qui se vide de son sang devant lui.
Exactement le mécanisme de Milgram, de Browning. Un homme normal qui cesse de croire ses propres yeux parce qu'un cadre moral lui a appris ce qu'il devait craindre.
C'est précisément ça qui me terrifie.
Souvenez-vous: le monde entier s'est agenouillé pour quatre mots, « I can't breathe ». Des entreprises, des gouvernements, des stades entiers.
Henry a prononcé les mêmes mots, en train de mourir. Il n'y aura ni genou à terre, ni hashtag, ni minute de silence.
Parce que sa mort ne sert pas le cadre. Elle le contredit.
Et un système qui apprend à une société entière à faire passer l'accusation de racisme avant les faits, avant le corps, avant la vie, n'est pas une posture morale inoffensive.
C'est une machine à fabriquer des hommes qui, face à un enfant en train de mourir, choisissent les menottes.
$LG $LGCXF The Nevada-based company owns a historic mine that was previously in operation. It was mined from 1988 to 1994. They are bringing it back online and expect to receive full construction permits early next year. They will begin producing gold on-site in the third and fourth quarters. So this is a truly exciting time for the company and its investors.
In addition, their second facilities and a satellite operation will begin operations.
Lahontan Gold currently has 2 million ounces on paper, and there will be a new update on that next month. A massive catalyst for the entire year. Lahontan Gold is one of my top picks because it meets all my criteria. It has enormous scale and scalability and is located in a great jurisdiction. They have all the infrastructure in place. So it’s easy for people to understand, grasp, and invest in.
They will receive their permit in the first quarter, but construction will only take four to six months since the infrastructure is already in place. They will contract external construction companies.
For example, they have three drill holes with all the associated water rights and a substation on the property. So many of the things you typically have to do to prepare for mine construction aren’t even necessary for the company.
Lahontan Gold is also planning a resource update for Santa Fe this year. When such reports are prepared, data collection must be halted months in advance. They did that in January, but they have been drilling throughout the year. One should therefore read between the lines. And in September, there will be a PA update. That is the final document they need for their application to obtain the mining permit◽️
https://t.co/ecNVOWGkMT
@ThiedeInvests Well done. @DonDurrett loves this stock. And so do I, it's silly cheap. Kimberly is impressive, not only does she intend to take it all the way, she even talked about consolidating nearby properties into a district.
Evidence against the current interpretation of birthright citizenship (being challenged by the Trump admin before SCOTUS):
If anyone who is born on US soil is automatically a citizen, then why did Congress need to enact a statute granting citizenship to Native Americans?