eismc2

Investing since 2008
2008 - 2017 real estate
2017 - 2025 crypto
since 2025 AI

[eismc2 @powdilicious]

The FUD checklist
❌ China caught up CXMT is 2-3 generations behind HBM3E
❌ DRAM export ban SCAs are with US hyperscalers, not subject to export rules
❌ Hyperscalers can't spend more Meta/Google/MSFT all raised Capex guidance in Q2
❌ Famous short Burry 2/50 on macro calls

[eismc2 @powdilicious]

MU is down ~30% from ATH. Feels awful. But we've been here before.

Sam Altman DRAM deal panic (Oct 2025): –30%
TurboQuant "6x memory compression" scare (Mar 2026): –30%
Current FUD — CXMT IPO + HBM export ban rumors: –30%

[eismc2 @powdilicious]

Both previous episodes had one thing in common: they felt material, they weren't.

What's different TODAY vs those episodes:
→ $100B in non-cancelable Strategic Customer Agreements
→ $22B in customer deposits already paid
→ CEO: "no line of sight" to supply catching up

[eismc2 @powdilicious]

Choose your fighter wisely

[eismc2 @powdilicious]

@alojohhardcore Let the winners run

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

And this report is just the tip of an enormous iceberg of evil

[eismc2 @powdilicious]

@_stockResearch @aleabitoreddit 💯

[eismc2 @powdilicious]

@christianoboria 💯

[eismc2 @powdilicious]

@_stockResearch @aleabitoreddit At a certain point, successful people are hated, especially when it comes to money, but that says more about the person.

[eismc2 @powdilicious]

Goldman Sachs CPO TAM: $91B by 2028. $SIVE is a critical CW laser bottleneck in that supply chain.

[eismc2 @powdilicious]

$SIVE — what needs to happen for a $10B valuation (currently ~$2.4B)

🔴 Must happen:
→ First CPO revenues H2 2026 (pipeline at $799M, +77%)
→ Nasdaq US listing must close, not just "evaluate"
→ ~83x P/S multiple must hold (or revenues must scale fast enough)

[eismc2 @powdilicious]

🟢 Would help:
→ Russell/MSCI index inclusion post-US listing
→ Tier-1 US analyst coverage after Nasdaq debut

The math: at 20x P/S (normal for semis) you need ~$500M revenue — that's a 2028 story. At current 83x you only need ~$120M.

[eismc2 @powdilicious]

@aleabitoreddit Thanks for sharing this all for free.

[eismc2 @powdilicious]

This structural shortage forces ecosystem partners (Ayar Labs, POET) to utilize independent suppliers.
Q1 reporting and MSCI rebalancing are complete, removing recent institutional selling pressure.

#SiliconPhotonics #CPO #Semiconductors #Sivers

[eismc2 @powdilicious]

$SIVE.ST: Indium Phosphide (InP) capacity bottleneck.

Nvidia requires a 20x increase in InP laser capacity by 2030. Top suppliers project only a 12x increase. The InP market is projected to expand from $1.9B to $22.75B.
Lumentum and Coherent are fully booked for the next 32 mon.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

$SIVE is the most compelling CPO/photonics exposure to me.

Addressing the disinformation: I haven’t sold and don’t plan to sell a single share.

I do think this ends up the next $80B+ $LITE one day from ~$2.1B.

And I personally have plans to acquire more ownership + support their M&A prospects.

I believe earnings transcripts will be strongly positive.

As in the part few months we’ve discovered:

> AlChip/Amazon private placements, which is positive for Ayar -> $SIVE implying Trainium 4 design in

> Wiwynn + Ayar CPO scale up

> $JBL 1.6T optical transceiver ramp with Sivers incoming faster than markets expected (with relatively dramatic moat + demand as much as they can produce)

> O-Net scaling up ELS efforts with $SIVE

> $YSS acquisition of $SIVE allspace lead partner, designing Sivers into Space defense primes

> New CHIPS ACT funding for $SIVE

> $POET H2 volume ramp and their new $50m -> $500m order (with $SIVE as light source)

> information discovery around $AAPL using $SIVE lasers for next gen consumer devices

> information discovery around links to Lightelligence (went public $10B+ MC) + Lightmatter as likely customers.

> Celestial volume ramp with $MRVL indicators.

> new customers working on TFLN with $SIVE like Lightium

> $AMD going with $GFS for CPO, and GFS listing sivers as one of two laser suppliers

> Ayar removing $MTSI / $LITE from their website and signaling $SIVE as primary source/sole source

> Ayar raising $500m for volume ramp (intel, Mediatek, Nvidia, amd etc)

> pluggable TAM expansion signaled from 2025 annual report

> Nasdaq listing expected soon

> MSCI small cap index / Nasdaq omx inclusion, making Blackrock, Vanguard and others passive buyers

> M&A signaled from 2025 annual report + 2 new board members that have experience in that area

> $NOK as likely customer from 2025 annual report.

> $LITE getting cw bottlenecked from EML contracts, $SIVE signaling capacity agreements in place with Win, making the a likely bottleneck owner + chokepoint in CPO sector.

All of this market research was done before earnings.

Any results is just confirmation of supply chain mapping done.

I don’t think anyone cares about former quarter revenue since $SIVE is an exceptionally compelling 2027 long, especially H2 onward.

Only thing I’m looking at are:

> TAM expansion of the overall photonics supercycle (eg. optical engine, ELS, pluggables) either from M&A or developments

> volume ramp expectations from existing companies

> Nasdaq listing timelines for more liquidity to support their M&A efforts

> any new customers signaled for CPO/Pluggables

[eismc2 @powdilicious]

You can copy a chip, but you can’t copy a patent. Sivers has spent decades securing the "How," making their current $1B valuation look like a bargain for a global IP powerhouse. 💎🚀
#Sivers #IntellectualProperty #AI #6G #Semiconductors #Investing $SIVE

[eismc2 @powdilicious]

In the semiconductor world, hardware is the body, but Patents are the soul. 🛡️
$SIVE isn’t just manufacturing; they are building a massive IP fortress. When you own the physics of how light and waves move, you own the market. 🧵👇

[eismc2 @powdilicious]

4/ The Valuation Moat: Analysts often look at revenue, but savvy investors look at the Intangible Assets. Sivers’ patent wall makes them an incredibly expensive target to bypass and a prime candidate for acquisition by US Tier-1 players.