'Jevons Paradox: More Evidence of a Positive Employment Effect of AI Adoption'
'A new study from Ramp, linking observed AI spending to workforce records across 21,559 US firms, finds that companies adopting AI grow their headcount 10% over the two years following adoption.
These gains are entirely driven by high-intensity adopters with entry-level jobs rising by about 12%, suggesting that heavy AI investment is complementing workforce growth rather than replacing workers'
- Apollo Chief Economist Torsten Slok
https://t.co/LdYlQ0QW8Z
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The real reason oil is below $100/bbl. It isn’t fundamentals. It’s capital aversion. Policy uncertainty has made oil too volatile to hold. Investor VaR has collapsed by c.$5B. Open interest is at the lowest level in years. Global oil stocks are still drawing 5-6mb/d; however, investors say they don't care.
Start with investor VaR - the best measure of how much capital is willing to engage with oil. It has collapsed to $1.4B (see chart). Not forced out by rising rates, sanctions or external margin calls. Investors are simply choosing not to hold. The policy noise - deal on/off, attack, not attack - has made the carry uncompensable.
VaR compression has one direct consequence: it drains open interest. Contracts are closed. Market depth disappears. 2026 YTD open interest decline is the worst on record. Unlike 2022, there’s no rates shock or sanctions forcing the exit. This is capital aversion.
Managed Money VaR and YTD OI Change
Oil is correcting/consolidating in the orange box after reaching our first target, just as forecast. The next stage of the forecast comes when it breaks to the upside in the next 12-24 months and heads to $200, $300 and probably more.
JPMorgan just drew a line no analyst wants to talk about.
Global oil inventories collapsing to 7,450 mb by July 2026.
Lower than every single year since 2017.
One question: Are you positioned for what comes next? 👇
Free newsletter: The dawn of token-based billing has shown that generative AI doesn’t have a return on investment. It's too unpredictable, too unreliable, you can't easily measure the cost of tasks, and organizations are already pulling back.
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