For years, Tradfi investors have treated Bitcoin like just another risk asset tied to tech and liquidity.
That relationship has reached the breaking point.
My new paper argues that Bitcoin is being pushed into its strongest regime by 3 powerful converging secular forces to dominate for the years to come:
AI disruption
Rising commodity inflation
Physical scarcity
At the same time:
• CPI is about to cross above 3M bill yields
• the best historical Bitcoin regime is getting close
• software is under pressure from Mythos and AI agents
• the fiat system is looking more vulnerable to exponential AI
• Bitcoin is starting to separate as the only growth asset built on code that may actually benefit
This is the regime Bitcoin was built for.
New Substack Post:
How AI, Inflation, and Scarcity Are Driving Bitcoin Into Its Strongest Regime
https://t.co/D7WPnM1vWe
For years, Tradfi investors have treated Bitcoin like just another risk asset tied to tech and liquidity.
That relationship has reached the breaking point.
My new paper argues that Bitcoin is being pushed into its strongest regime by 3 powerful converging secular forces to dominate for the years to come:
AI disruption
Rising commodity inflation
Physical scarcity
At the same time:
• CPI is about to cross above 3M bill yields
• the best historical Bitcoin regime is getting close
• software is under pressure from Mythos and AI agents
• the fiat system is looking more vulnerable to exponential AI
• Bitcoin is starting to separate as the only growth asset built on code that may actually benefit
This is the regime Bitcoin was built for.
New Substack Post:
How AI, Inflation, and Scarcity Are Driving Bitcoin Into Its Strongest Regime
https://t.co/D7WPnM1vWe
@jake_pahor Great writing! simple DCA buy needs to practice during various market, however selling seems against the purpose of accumulation so never executed, could advise? Thanks
Think back 10 years ago.
Do you feel better off financially today than you did back then?
On paper, you should.
Higher income. Career progression. Business growth.
And yet, many people feel poorer.
Every week it’s harder to pay the bills. The mortgage hurts more. Saving and investing feels further out of reach.
This isn’t a coincidence.
It’s the result of out of control inflation, reckless government spending, and a broken monetary system.
COVID lit the match and dropped it straight onto your hard earned dollars.
Never before has the cost of living been this high, yet governments continue spending as if there are no consequences, printing their way out of trouble.
And today, the RBA raised interest rates again.
At a time when much of the world is easing, Australia is still tightening.
Households and businesses pay the price.
Ten years ago, I was on a modest graduate engineering salary. Today, I earn more than double that.
And yet, I feel poorer.
Back then, rent, food and petrol were cheap enough that saving and investing felt easy.
Today, even on a much higher income, it feels harder just to keep up.
That’s not personal failure.
That’s systemic failure.
The fiat currency system is fundamentally broken and beyond repair.
And this is why I’m bullish on crypto.
Not the ponzi schemes.
Not meme coins.
Not rug pulls.
But the one asset that exists outside the system.
A decentralised store of value.
No central authority.
No money printer.
No politician pulling levers.
Bitcoin.
That’s the escape hatch.
That’s where I’m placing my bets.
I'm getting rekt by Impermanent Loss in CLMM, I'm building a system to fix it.
The Lab:
CLMM Platform: @orca_so
LP Position: Orca SPX/USDC LP
LP Range: 0.6413 — 0.715 (~3% below and ~6% above current price, 1:2 RR)
Amount: $100
Hedging Platform: Hyperliquid
Hedging Position: Short Order @ 0.6413 (the lower band of LP range)
Shorting amount: $100 USDC or 155.9 SPX (100/0.6413)
Order Type: Stop Market
The Shield:
A 1:1, non-leveraged short on @HyperliquidX that triggers AUTOMATICALLY if my range breaks.
This isn’t just about earning fees. It’s about hedging the downside
I’ll post the full logic and what happens when the hedge activates.
Will further elaborate the logic behind, and what next after short position activated.
#CLMM #IL #SPX6900 #Defi
Having a screen capture for visualization as of July 29
Key Pool Metrics
-Total Value Locked (TVL): $1,489,926
- 24-Hour Trading Volume: $5,139,457
- 24-Hour Fees Generated: $15,418
- 5% Price Range: $2.1498 - $2.2627
- 3% Price Range: $2.1914 - $2.2627
The active in-range yield is approximately 5.135% per 24 hours (equating to about 154% over 30 days). This is an exceptionally high return, though the price won’t remain within this range consistently for the full 30 days (hope so🤑)
When configuring positions, I have these factors in mind for optimal performance:
1. Position Across Key Edges: Consider ranges that straddle high-volume points, such as $1.9 - $2.1, where trading activity tends to be elevated around $2.0.
2. Overlapping and Efficient Ranges: Aim for overlapping ranges to target sweet spots for better capital efficiency. Examples include:
Tight Range: $1.29 - $1.51
Medium Range: $0.99 - $1.51
Broad Range: $0.49 - $1.51
3. Varying Liquidity Amounts: Allocate more capital to broader ranges (which offer lower earning rate but more stable yields) and less to tighter ranges (which may not always be active). Adjust dynamically based on price action
4. Duration and Impermanent Loss Mitigation: Ensure each position remains active long enough to recover from potential impermanent loss if the price moves out of range.
My SPX/USDC CLMM Strategy on Orca
https://t.co/WrT9L6ikmy
Market Direction Outcomes
• Bullish Scenario (price rises above range): The position converts entirely to USDC, effectively locking in gains from the upward move.
• Bearish Scenario (price drops below range): The position converts entirely to SPX, which fits my long-term conviction (details below).
Core Strategy
I allocate my funds across different price ranges to balance fee earnings and efficiency.
• 2/4 of the amount: Deposit in USDC just below the current price, using two tight ranges (3% and 5% widths with some overlap). The overlap “sweet spot” overlap boosts efficiency for higher fee generation.
• 1/4 of the amount: Deposit in a broader price range (10-15%, adjusted based on volatility). This provides more stable fee income by maximizing time spent in-range.
• 1/4 of the amount: Keep sidelined as dry powder. This is for scenarios where the position moves positively out of range, avoiding realized losses from premature adjustments.
Remarks
• In a volatile uptrend, I set ranges slightly above the current price (+5-10%) to stay in-range longer and reduce the need for frequent repositioning during price appreciation
• For tracking, I use Metric Finance to monitor total earned fees. There are other detailed position stats (like PnL, in-range percentage, and impermanent loss), but their calculations sometimes inaccurate, so I’ve stopped relying on them but only the total earned fee for reference
• I’ve experimented with various setups, including staggered ranges and auto-rebalancing tools like HawkFi. This strategy has performed the best so far.
• There are some great research papers on CLMM range strategies that have been super helpful and inspiring—definitely worth checking out if you’re into this.
• I run a daily AI prompt for technical analysis indicators (e.g., open interest, CEX/DEX volume, funding rates) to get a quick overview of price action for range setting
Assumption
I have conviction in $SPX so I’m comfortable holding it at a higher average cost if everything converts to SPX in a downturn.
Yield Harvesting (Daily, if have 😆)
Yields come out roughly half in USDC and half in SPX. Here’s how I handle them:
• SPX Yields: I accumulate for long-term price growth, aiming for SPX to hit $3 by year-end. Some might get redeployed into CLMM positions.
• USDC Yields: 1/2 as dry powder for other investments or deposited for interest once it builds up, 1/2 withdrawn as profit, converted to fiat for everyday living.
#SPX #CLMM #Orca #SPX6900
@thedefiedge Insightful and practical!
Echo to "Simply do the opposite" is pretty difficult to act in RL, would say do differently, and totally agree time is precious while your focus time is the top!
@calvintsaikm What should be the strategy when go to the expected highest price? DCA out or sell half/all? As seems cycling effect is diminished so the way to prepare is critical, thanks!
Imagine a community who
- Bullpost everyday
- Don't compare themselves to other memes
- Want to hold something longer than a year
- Has a mission to flip the stockmarket
- Wants to inspire people the same way GME did in 2021
- community who support each other #SPX6900#SPX