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So the better question isn’t “how hard can I afford to go?” It’s “where does more AI actually improve output?” Route cheap models for routine work, reserve frontier models for high-leverage gates, and measure marginal quality per dollar.
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The AI compute debate is confused because two curves are moving in opposite directions: tokens for fixed capability are getting dramatically cheaper, while total AI bills are rising because workflows now use more calls, context and agents.
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But at the application layer, token spend is not a moat. Customers multi-home, model capability converges, and spend can become a tax. The durable edge is distribution, proprietary data, workflow integration and trust.
Probably the realest thing I have heard Chamath say
"Possessions are BS. They are worthless. They are a sign of insecurity, a rampant ego, and an unsettled mind. And that is okay if you are going to be a mid."
Everyone thinks AI coding tools set founders free.
Watch what people actually build with them: rules, approvals, process, layers. The same cage, assembled faster.
The tool that can scaffold anything in an afternoon will scaffold your bureaucracy in an afternoon too.
Speed of construction is speed of calcification. Build the thing that lets you create new things: experiences that didn’t happen before.
Microsoft AI CEO, Mustafa Suleyman:
By the end of 2025, models will move from one-shot answers to continuous planning
With persistent memory and long-horizon planning, models will become deeply human-like
no new algorithm, mostly compute and scale
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang on Elon Musk and @xAI
“Never been done before – xAI did in 19 days what everyone else needs one year to accomplish.
That is superhuman – There's only one person in the world who could do that – Elon Musk is singular in his understanding of engineering.”
3. Love him or hate him, Trump at least tries to change the trajectory—through trade realignment, tariffs, or challenging the administrative state. It’s clumsy 🤷, but it’s not the same old status quo.
2. Both Avi Gilburt and Ray Dalio have hinted this could be the end of a long-term debt & political cycle. 📉📜 You can’t just keep layering on debt forever—eventually you hit a reckoning. And it’s not early innings… it’s the final act. ⚠️