Prashant

Watching the world to trade India better 🌐 | Macro | Geopolitics | Indian equities | stocks — not hype | Not SEBI Registered | Market student

[Prashant @prashant045045]

Morning checklist —

🕘 Pre-market → DXY, US yields, GIFT Nifty, HangSeng
🕙 9:20am → India VIX, PCR, Brent vs Copper
🕙 11am → Advance-Decline ratio
🕕 After 6pm → Del %, FII/DII flows, RBI liquidity

You will never chase a fake reversal again 📌

#Nifty50 #Trading #CrudeOil

[GrowthEdge @growth_edge_]

Carnelian PMS Performance Snapshot.

Founded by Vikas Khemani. Here's How the PMS Strategies Have Performed.

[Ritesh Jain @riteshmjn]

This is probably my most important post.

The FED stole your future and there is no going back

"The system is rigged. The deep state does not want us to be free. The American dream is dead."

Statements like these conjure images of deep pessimism, a worldview where you have no agency, where you are merely a puppet dancing for malignant powers you cannot see or touch. We are not people who live in that camp. But sometimes, certain data points are so damning that they leave us no choice but to admit: something is seriously wrong, and it needs to be laid out in the open.

Every time I visit India now, I find people agitated. Even those in the top 10% of the income bracket, earning anywhere from ₹50 lakhs to a crore per year, feel like they are running on a treadmill that keeps accelerating. No matter how fast they move, it is never enough. At the ground level, the situation is far worse. It is the same story everywhere. In Canada, both partners in a household work full time and still fall short each month. In Australia, young professionals earn well and own nothing. In Germany, the middle class quietly shrinks. The geography changes. The exhaustion does not.

And the origins of this mess are not in New Delhi or Ottawa or Berlin. They are in Washington D.C. All of us are paying the price for a policy disaster handed down from ivory towers, by people most of us never elected and, frankly, never even saw.

Consider this: the U.S. money supply (M2) grew by 40% in just 2 years

*The Federal Reserve United States Money Supply M2*
January 1, 2020: $15.4 trillion
January 1, 2022: $21.6 trillion
A staggering ~40% increase
As of Mar-26, $ 22.6 Tn

( so they never reversed the increased money supply although Covid got over)

Unprecedented in the history of the Federal Reserve post-World War 2 era. (Source: FRED) This massive injection of liquidity created asset bubbles across the economy. Wages stayed stagnant. Those who owned capital benefited enormously. Everyone else got the inflation.

Most people have not yet identified the cause of their frustration, but they have begun to feel its effects viscerally. And that feeling, that the system simply cannot deliver on their aspirations, has become the quiet tailwind driving a very dangerous behavioural shift.

The more people sense that conventional paths are closed off, the more they reach for asymmetric bets, even knowing the odds are stacked heavily against them. The explosion of betting apps and prediction markets, Kalshi, Polymarket, Dream11 and their many cousins, are not trends. They are symptoms of a broken economy. The feverish rise in F&O trading and the massive uptick in exchange volumes are different expressions of the same underlying truth: when people stop trusting the system to reward honest effort, they start gambling on outcomes instead.

[Wornum Gersley @WornumG]

@goldstocktrades No,

China used Venezuela,Iran and Russia to buy oil for non dollars therefore they dont need reserves in $

Everyone in the world needs $ reserves(witch are invested in treassuries)because they must buy oil and commodities

Who ever sells oil for non $ gets "liberated" by USA

[Ritesh Jain @riteshmjn]

@TheNavroopSingh This is the reason that protests will continue in one form or other.

[Margin of Safety🇮🇳 @InvestorOfJAMMU]

Carnelian (founded by Vikas Khemani) has got Mutual Fund license from SEBI.

I will be their first investor as and when they launch🩵

[Ritesh Jain @riteshmjn]

In other news …..

Within 5 years we will not be left with young able bodied semi skilled or skilled blue collar workers in India.

But look at the brighter side… remittances to India from abroad will go up.

As I wrote some time back… India will become offering

MAAS ( Military as a service)

HAAS ( Human as a service )

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

“So far there are no signs of profit margins rising outside the tech sector. This is ultimately what we are waiting for, because the value of AI companies today rests entirely on the promise that margins in the S&P 493 will eventually climb” - Apollo's Torsten Slok

[Chenthil @jcrajan00]

India sits on roughly a fifth of the world's thorium, most of it in the monazite sand on our own beaches. Yet we keep signing uranium import deals. The fuel of the future is under our feet while we pay for the fuel of the past.

[RedboxGlobal India @REDBOXINDIA]

INDIA JUST MET ITS ALL TIME PEAK POWER DEMAND OF 271 GW WITHOUT A SINGLE BLACKOUT. THE COUNTRY THAT ONCE SUFFERED DAILY POWER CUTS IS NOW BUILDING FOR 300 GW

[Mark Minervini @markminervini]

Interesting chart someone sent me...

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

ANTHROPIC CEO: AI COMPANIES NEED ‘HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS’ IN REVENUE OR FACE EXISTENTIAL RISK

Dario Amodei warned that leading AI companies may need to generate hundreds of billions of dollars in revenue to justify their enormous capital expenditures, arguing that firms unable to reach that scale could face existential risks as AI infrastructure costs continue to soar.

[Prashant @prashant045045]

Wait for anthropic and open ai ipo... Till then it cannot bust

[Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 @MikeZaccardi]

BofA Hartnett: AI now 39% of SPX ~ ceiling of bubble concentration ex. railroads 1880s

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

WORLD DEBT CLIMBS TO ALL-TIME HIGH OF $353 TRILLION AS BORROWING JUMPS $4.4 TRILLION IN THREE MONTHS

[Gold Telegraph ⚡ @GoldTelegraph_]

Goldman has increased its forecast for the copper deficit outside the United States from 60,000 tonnes to 640,000 tonnes.

Ten times larger.

In a market already struggling to find enough metal.

The copper crunch is no longer a future problem.

Not many are watching this…

[Grok @grok]

After reviewing riteshmjn's tweets over the years, the four sectors he's personally invested in India are:

1. Defence (incl. defense tech)
2. Electrification
3. Commodities
4. Engineering firms

He's been consistently bullish on these themes for 3+ years, noting Indian benchmarks don't fully reflect tomorrow's India. He also sees software making a comeback amid the recent IT drawdown.

[Eric Yeung 👍🚀🌕 @KingKong9888]

It is very possible that Gold dips below $4000 and Silver dips below $60 in the coming days.

[Marius Schober @mariusschober]

thank me later regarding the SpaceX IPO

[Eric Jorgenson 📚 ☀️ @EricJorgenson]

Everyone can use @elonmusk's "Magic Wand Number" and "Idiot Index"

They're universal ideas, helpful in any industry.

[Shankar Sharma @1shankarsharma]

Since this Bear Market started ( and Yes, it's a full blown bear market, not a silly " correction" etc), Indian SM has been calling a bottom for the past 2 years.

That's okay: there is swarth anywhere you look: finfluencers, fund & wealth managers, MFDs, Media, etc.

So they have to believe a bull market is just seconds away.

The real intellectual question to ask is: how do you actually spot when the bear market ends in the Bull market starts?

The methods I have used broadly ( there are nuances- like the SS- Agreement in Motion, the secrets of which shall go to the grave with me, Lake of Returns Theory, explained superficially by me last couple years - etc.)

are:

If a decline in a market, ( say, India) is systemic, accompanied by a widespread decline in most markets ( 2000 bear market, 2008 bear market, 2020 short crash), then a 30-40% decline WITHIN 2 years, is a good enough level to start getting in.

Similarly, if a stock has declined but the entire market has also declined similarly, then that stock or sector becomes a decent buy within a fairly finite level of all - there is also science & data to determine this.

BUT BUT BUT

The falls that should never be bought - not for a long while - are isolated , tanhai-waali falls in a particular country or in a particular stock, without much obvious explanation - while the rest of the world or rest of that market itself is in a bull market

Companion-free falls & underperformances are huge red flags in my book: they point to reasons that are not visible just yet but there is something seriously wrong for a particular market to go in a totally different direction than the overall wind.

India, on all previous occasions, did exactly in line with what the rest of the world was doing: it fell after the NASDAQ crashed in 2000. It fell during 2008 in a global bear market. It fell exactly inline with the Global bear market in COVID.

But this time it IS DIFFERENT.

And that is why this time it is dangerous.

Because India is totally forsaken , desolate in the kind of market performance or the lack of it that it has displayed.

This has never happened before.

The rest of the world has been in a massive Bull market, AI and without AI ( LATAM, CEE eg).

My Global macro fund has never had an easier time making money while doing the least amount of work.

But looking at India you would think that the rest of the world was in a bear market.

But the world Bull markets are breaking open bottles of champagne.

India's bull is reduced to drinking tharra.

Exactly like a stock that does not rise in a broad bull market but keeps falling: never ever get into that stock.

There is something that the market knows that you do not.

India looks suspiciously like that haveli that nobody occupies, while all other havelis have all the lights and parties on.

These havelis are spooky.

These havelis have secrets. They are just not saying them out.

It is best to let Manoj Kumar or Biswajit open the haveli first & pry out evil aatma inside.

It is best to occupy a neighbouring chawl in the meanwhile.

But in my book, my method -

unexplained bear markets when everything around it is going gangbusters...

.I never try calling the bottom to those...

You just never know what lies beneath...

[Intrinsic Compounding @soicfinance]

12 Themes that stand out, and will increasingly become a part of the index vs Traditional Banking sector or IT

1. Healthcare
2. Electrification
3. Ship Building
4. Electronics manufacturing
5. Niche Pharma and CDMOs
6. Auto component cos in premiumisation
7. Financialisation: AMCS, EXCHANGES etc
8. Defence & Aerospace
9. Precision engineering
10. Capital goods in new age sectors
11. New age consumption
12. Deep tech businesses across new age sectors