We have companies spending trillions of dollars to try and build a human brain, that you were inherently born with and cost you absolutely zero dollars
Think about what a blessing that is. You didn't need to spend a single penny on pre-training, inference, or any of this stuff.
You picked up language naturally as a child. Mathematics, history, and English are all subjects that you learn as a toddler. A human can pick up driving at the age of 18 for 0.01% of the cost it takes for a machine to learn it
We were born with an incredible gift. Some use it better than others, but the potential that sits inside our brains is unbelievable
The immense amount of focus that we are seeing on cost per token amongst all the large LLM providers is a further sign that all the value will accrue at the application layer
The Zuckerberg Meta announcement just puts even more pressure on OpenAI and Anthropic to lower token prices
Classic case of capitalism doing its job to erode away pricing power and create customer surplus
All that surplus will accrue to the applications that are being built on top. Any reduction in token cost is a huge tailwind to every business
This is just the start of the golden age of economic activity. Insane to think about
Investing is one of the only roles where you can have a 55% hit rate and still end up rich
If you had that track record in medicine or law, you would lose your reputation and job pretty quickly
Being a good investor inherently means being okay with lots of mistakes
This is what Mumbai looks like after 96 hours of non-stop torrential rain.
My city has received 600 mm of rainfall this week, with another 400 mm likely over the next 48 hours.
That’s about 40% of its average seasonal rainfall in just one week. Most cities would come to a standstill under these conditions.
SpaceX IPO, listing, and beyond, is a true test for capitalism. The valuation does not fit any traditional matrix and is a huge bet on the future course of planet earth. Only time will tell whether we, the human race, have arrived into the fairy tale world we grew up in as children, or are in a mega bubble. Either ways, kudos to the man who came as an immigrant, and to the country that has allowed such boundless creativity to flourish despite all the risks it embeds.
I don’t think we have ever seen a capital race of this scale before. We have multiple trillion dollar companies spending like the world will end tomorrow if they don’t win this race
They don’t even know what the ROI might look like. They have no idea whether this is even a winner take all market, or not. They just know that they must spend. There is no alternative but to spend
They will obliterate every last dollar of free cash flow. They will take on whatever amount of debt is needed. They will stop every last cent of stock buybacks and dilute their shareholders to oblivion
It is all hands on deck to see who can build super intelligence the fastest. Cost discipline will get thrown out of the question. The amount of dollars that will flow around the economy just from these companies alone are mind boggling
In the process, many new trillion dollar companies are being created. Many new millionaires minted. Many fortunes being exchanged
Truly amazing to watch
Google which is cash surplus, just announced an additional capital raise of $80 bn.
Google annual profit is $160 bn, last quarter $62 bn, and market cap $4.5 trillion. That is close to total profits and market cap of all Indian listed companies put together.
It’s a wake up call to all companies to invest into the future, whatever the present maybe.
Now that IPL is done and dusted, time for India to focus on business of business.
Episode out now: https://t.co/Vrro6ktKWi
Sharp man at 80, i asked him how - he said puzzles.
For someone to have returned near 20 percent IRR for decades on a $100B corpus is ridiculous, lots to learn from this..
@Oaktree
Howard Marks runs Oaktree, a $120 billion+ firm built on distressed debt, has been writing the memos Warren Buffett opens first for over thirty years, and just changed his mind on AI after a single conversation with Claude — we got into where the $10 bill nobody has picked up is hiding right now, why he picked debt over equity for an entire career, and why the herd is almost always wrong. Full episode drops soon.
@Oaktree
Investing is by far one of the most rewarding jobs that exist
Every company and deal that you look at is a puzzle where you are slowly putting together each piece to form a mold. This mold is your viewpoint and thesis on the business
Once that mold gets formed, the goal is to figure out where your mold has the greatest delta vs what everyone else thinks the mold should be, which is informed by looking at the market consensus
The job is never constant. Every single day, both your own mold and the market consensus view moves along in different directions.
Each day, a new piece gets added to the puzzle. Whether that is earnings announcement, a CEO change, or a competitor product launch, everything is always fluid. The only constant is change
If you are an intellectually curious person, there is no other job that will satisfy your hunger in the same way.
Truly an incredible seat if you can get someone to pay you to do this all day. Cannot tell you how fortunate I feel to have done it