TREND TO TRADE

Trends → trades
Stocks, social signals, market oddities
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@jinseongeo83473 https://t.co/TtpJYG1Jfp

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@AvisBulbulyan I hear you on the talent, but it still feels like leadership thinks they can out-maneuver the ecosystem instead of actually understanding it

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@Paramaz1932 I think the the stock may have got ahead of per-share cash earnings. Plus new supply is one of the classic reasons short interest jumps: more borrowable stock, more float, and a market that has to digest the raise

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@AvisBulbulyan This is excellent and thank you.

Question: Is the moat capital is still pricing in for regulatory capture (real, defensible, worth paying for) or is it just a habit from pricing prohibition as if it were a moat, or something else?

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@thesamparr treating your members as inventory?

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@thesamparr Somewhere a Hampton PowerPoint has a slide titled "Flywheel" and it's just a picture of Sam talking into a microphone

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@jinseongeo83473 a genuinely new entrant starting from scratch wouldn't make much sense on this timetable

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@AvisBulbulyan Isn't the narrative-hopping a mgmt-quality signal?

and the 5+ labor complaints in 2 yrs pre-raid

and the 'burner distro' allegations

Why even trust their numbers as a baseline at all?

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@thesamparr you got CopyThat'd on yourself 🤡

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4/ The setup I'm watching:

Korean incomes ↑
Consumer spending ↑
Won potentially strengthens
Coupang volumes ↑
Logistics utilization ↑
Margins recover
Coupang says Product Commerce margins should get back near pre-incident levels by mid-2027.
That's a catalyst with a clock.
The trend to trade may be Korea's semiconductor boom spreading far beyond semiconductors.

[TREND TO TRADE @preddegen]

1/ The next big Korea trade might not be semiconductors.

It might be what happens AFTER the semiconductor boom.

Chip profits → bigger wages & bonuses → more consumer spending → stronger economy → stronger won

That money has to go somewhere.

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3/ That's why I'm looking beyond Samsung and SK Hynix.

One name: $CPNG Coupang.

Think Amazon + DoorDash + Instacart for Korea.

The stock has been crushed after a data breach and regulatory problems, but customers are returning and spending is recovering.

Margins haven't recovered yet.

That's the opportunity.

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@Tim_Denning The creator economy is a digital sweatshop

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Ariel Emanuel is quietly building something interesting.

His new company MARI has been buying:

• Tennis tournaments
• Frieze art fairs
• Barrett-Jackson
• Collect-A-Con
• TodayTix
• Winter Wonderland
• And now 70 live theatre venues

MARI is private, so there's no stock to buy.
But the bigger bet is worth watching:
As more of life moves online and into AI, real-world experiences may actually become MORE valuable.
And social media isn't replacing them — it's becoming the discovery engine that makes people want to go.

The trade I'm interested in:
Who are the public-market winners if people increasingly spend on experiences instead of things?

$LYV $TKO

Digging.

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@jinseongeo83473 The company may ultimately do very well, but waiting for investors to rediscover the story isn't enough reason for us to hold indefinitely

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5/5
Pokémon is a real alternative asset with a 30-year demand story, but it is not a risk-free 8x S&P button.

Sealed product and PSA 10 grails do the lifting. The median raw single does not print S&P-killing returns.

Real risks: Wide spreads. Fakes. Print waves.

The 3,821% was a basket of cards that survived and got priced

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1/5
A VC who owns 500,000 trading cards just said the quiet part:

If the world ends tomorrow, the global currency the next day is Pokémon cards.

That’s not a shitpost. Pokémon’s price index is up 3,821% since 2004.

[TREND TO TRADE @preddegen]

4/5
The store-of-value pitch is getting weird.

One guy in Ohio used Pokémon profits to buy his fiancée a 3.5-carat diamond ring

Guys are proposing with a custom card instead of a speech

Japan even sells official Pokémon engagement rings from $2,100.

When cardboard starts funding the diamond you’re not in a kids’ hobby anymore