PredictorsReport

Real-time odds, breaking headlines, and data-driven insights that cut through the noise. Newsletter coming soon. Livestreams every Tuesday, Thursday & Sunday.

[PredictorsReport @predict_report]

At PredictorsReport, we foresee a shift in how news is delivered. Instead of endless debate or partisan spin, people will increasingly turn to markets for one simple answer: What are the actual chances this happens?

Prediction markets represent a new way of understanding the world. Even for everyday people who never place a single bet, they provide something that’s becoming increasingly rare: a sense of certainty in an uncertain world.

Maybe someone’s girlfriend wants to see the odds of Taylor Swift getting married this year. Maybe someone who wants to see the odds of a major geopolitical event in the area they live.

People are wired to understand numbers. Odds just make sense. A headline can spin a story, but “45% chance” or “80% likely” is instantly clear. That number sticks in your head.

Prediction markets are real time probabilities shaped by collective intelligence and updated with every new piece of information. They are a constantly shifting our reflection of reality.

That shift will fundamentally change how information is consumed, trusted, and acted upon.

[PredictorsReport @predict_report]

@thegreektrader Here ✋

[PredictorsReport @predict_report]

@PredMTrader I guess you aren’t a liar 🤷‍♂️

[PredictorsReport @predict_report]

This is one of those real-time moments that shows how quickly prediction markets react to breaking geopolitical headlines. Just yesterday, this market was trading under 40%

[PredictorsReport @predict_report]

🚨 BREAKING: Trump orders another lethal strike on a drug-trafficking boat in the Caribbean — killing four men aboard.

The market on whether Trump would hit “another drug boat by Oct 15” is confirmed at 99%

[PredictorsReport @predict_report]

🚨 NEW MARKET: Mr. Olympia 2025 Men’s Open Winner 🏆

Polymarket just listed odds on bodybuilding’s biggest stage. Current favorites:
•Hadi Choopan – 35%
•Samson Dauda – 28%
•Derek Lunsford – 21%
•Brett Wilkin – 20%

Traders leaning toward Choopan, but Dauda is close behind.

Market’s still small but could heat up as the stage gets closer. 💪

[PredictorsReport @predict_report]

@0xd1namit @Polymarket Game changer! Thanks for the heads up 🙏

[PredictorsReport @predict_report]

Join us for todays prediction market news update! https://t.co/zIgwT2PoU9

[PredictorsReport @predict_report]

Join Prediction Report Live - Prediction Market News https://t.co/u2xvTTDA8Q

[WasabiBoat Research 🎁 @wasabiboat]

New Accuracy Research on Polymarket

TLDR:

Polymarket:
- has a Brier score (stats method of measuring forecasting accuracy) of 0.0565, on par with the best predictoors in existence.
- is getting more accurate over time as more liquidity comes online
- volume boosts from one-off events like elections spread out into other markets after the big event ends
- as expected, there is a linear relationship between volume and accuracy: more volume = more accurate

[PredictorsReport @predict_report]

Nice for when you have some extra capital on the side and waiting on a good bet to come along.

[PredictorsReport @predict_report]

I’m surprised more people aren’t farming Polymarket rewards. It’s basically free money if you keep cash in the order book and make sure your orders aren’t filled. Minimal downside, steady upside.

[PredictorsReport @predict_report]

@cryptotweets Would you pay your taxes in BTC?🤔

[PredictorsReport @predict_report]

Farmers desperately need help!

Exports have dropped after tariffs triggered retaliation from China which hit soybeans especially hard. At the same time costs have risen on essentials like fertilizer and machinery. Low crop prices and weather shocks make it worse. The bailout is aimed at offsetting these losses and stabilizing Trump’s farm state base since the strain comes directly from his own trade policy.

[PredictorsReport @predict_report]

@0xpredboy What could be the next catalyst to bring in the masses and bump these numbers up?🤔

[PredictorsReport @predict_report]

@FridayNtrades If this is engagement farming then we’re here for the harvest 🤠🌽

[PredictorsReport @predict_report]

Taylor Swift pregnancy before marriage is going crazy!

Do you think Travis Kelce could come through for the win? 🤔

[PredictorsReport @predict_report]

@thenarrator

[PredictorsReport @predict_report]

US Department of Labor to delay Job loss report due to government shutdown.

ADP reports that private payrolls have dropped by about 32,000 jobs.

[PredictorsReport @predict_report]

Your daily reminder that prediction markets are for EVERYONE.

[PredictionMarketTrader @PredMTrader]

THE SWIFTIE STREAM - LIVE WEDNESDAY 7PM PST

Joined by a Swiftie who has never heard of prediction markets but has:
>Attended the Eras Tour concert TWICE
>Attended the 1989 World Tour concert
>Attended 40 total concerts in the past year
>Made me money

https://t.co/xfvtPHuVYS

[PredictorsReport @predict_report]

5. Shutdown (2025)
How many days will the federal gov’t be shut down in 2025?
🟠 10–29 days leads at 48%
🔵 4–9 days: 26%
🟡 30+ days: 16%
⚪️ 1–3 days: 4%

Markets are leaning toward a longer shutdown scenario, with short-term (1–3 days) seen as very unlikely.

[PredictorsReport @predict_report]

📊 Prediction markets are moving fast today. From the Fed to the shutdown standoff to Trump–Putin odds, here’s your market rundown for Oct 1: 🧵

[PredictorsReport @predict_report]

3. Jobs Report
Will the U.S. add between 0–25k jobs in September?
📈 41% (+16)
Markets price in weak hiring ahead of Friday’s jobs report, a key test for the economy.