PIL

The prisoner's dilemma is the map legend to Bitcoin's price.

[PIL @prisonersdim]

Technically is USD: 1068, 363, 1061, 376, 1050, ? October 28, 2026?

[PIL @prisonersdim]

@TheBTCTherapist Depends on where your entry is...

[Crypto Caesar @CryptoCaesarTA]

$BTC - #Bitcoin: The bearmarket won’t last forever.

Bull market: 1064 days
Bear market: 364 days

Currently we are already trading 259 days in the bear market.

105 days left.

[philarekt @philarekt]

THE TRAP HASN'T EVEN STARTED

$63K gone, $60K swept the path is clear

Bounce to $68K-$69K → rejection → $44K → cycle bottom $40K

Every rally from here is exit liquidity

Turn on notifications - I'll call each level before it hits

[PIL @prisonersdim]

@sairahul1 Nice work! I was writing a loop for my OpenClaw without even realizing it. Thanks for the article, very clear and concise!

[Rahul @sairahul1]

https://t.co/kZFYtIdHAj

[₿IRB @crypto_birb]

Bitcoin is testing 200W SMA.

What is it and why does everyone keep mentioning it?

Let me explain.

It is the average of every weekly close for the last 200 weeks - approximately 4 years.

It's always rising because Bitcoin's price history is heavily skewed to the upside by parabolic bull runs.

Since it has 4 years lag, it's not sensitive to cyclical bull or bear markets.

That's why 2026 bear will only be reflected in 2030.

So if your favourite influencer claims Bitcoin can't fall below 200-week trend because it's rising, they are wrong.

And 4 years late.

If you use 4-year lagged indicator for future predictions, you are basically stuck in previous cycle.

Currently 200-week SMA is at 62,023.

It can temporarily act as psychological support.

But smart investors don't use it to time entries or exits.

What is it telling us now?

We're currently testing this area after breaking below it to near bear market lows.

For anyone with 4-year investment horizon, it's a good buying opportunity when Bitcoin falls & stays below it.

It typically marks depression phase of market cycle.

We're not there yet.

Which means depression is YET to come.

Bottom line: prepare for further declines.

Makes sense?

[フ ォ リ ス @follis_]

Why the bottom for $BTC is not in

Bitcoin's Realised Price is the average cost basis for all holders

Currently it is 53.6k

Bitcoin has NEVER bottomed in a cycle without trading below the Realised Price

2011 → BTC bottomed at $2.1, about 58% below the Realised Price of $5

2015 → BTC bottomed at $152, about 49% below the Realised Price of $300

2018 → BTC bottomed at $3.2k, about 47% below the Realised Price of $6k

2022 → BTC bottomed at $15.4k about 34% below the Realised Price of $23.3k

58%, 49%, 47%, 34% – see a pattern forming?

My prediction for the next Bitcoin bottom is the Realised Price minus 20-30%

In other words → 37.5k-42.8k

Bookmark this because I know I'm right

[Stockmoney Lizards @StockmoneyL]

Bitcoin

WYCKOFF ACCUMULATION PROGRESS
▰▰▰▰▰▱▱▱▱▱ 50%

[PIL @prisonersdim]

Weekly says down 🤩 $btc

[PIL @prisonersdim]

Plan
https://t.co/PahnsfQBhc

[Jesse Olson @JesseOlson]

$BTC has bottomed near 900 days in every cycle.

Day 775, this is what we learned:
Super cycle.❌
5-year cycle ❌
M2 Global Fractal ❌
Talking heads ❌
Business cycle ❌
Banana zone ❌
Saylor will never sell ❌
Jesse Olson Charts ✅

Buy The Right Dip 🤝

[PIL @prisonersdim]

@TedPillows It's doing exactly what it was programmed to do.

[PIL @prisonersdim]

@puckrin Bitcoin cannot be manipulated. We are in a bear market and it doesn't care about anything else. Just like when we kick off the bull market by the beginning of 2027, it won't care about anything else.

[PIL @prisonersdim]

@wacy_time1 Finally

[PIL @prisonersdim]

@Cryptoze I guess the 4-year bitcoin cycle is too boring for people to make real money. We are in a bear market.

[PIL @prisonersdim]

@BoujeeFinances No

[PIL @prisonersdim]

@BTCBreadMan She is right

[PIL @prisonersdim]

@hicasamadim 72

[PIL @prisonersdim]

@Jacob__theGreat @CalebSol Facts

[PIL @prisonersdim]

@TedPillows Exactly

[PIL @prisonersdim]

@TheBTCTherapist @grok September 4th, 2033