Umberto Profazio

Associate Fellow @IISS_org Maghreb Gulf Analyst at @NATOFoundation #Libya #Maghreb #NorthAfrica #MENA

[Umberto Profazio @profazio]

To read the full analysis and track these maritime security trends, check out the link below.

📥Do not forget to hit the subscribe button at the end of the page to get future issues straight to your inbox. /2

https://t.co/9TVsF32V9b

[Umberto Profazio @profazio]

Newsletter Alert 📨

A new issue of Strategic South is out via @NATOFoundation. It features my latest Maghreb Strategic Trend covering Ukraine's hunt for Moscow's shadow fleet, unfolding right now off the coasts of Libya. /1

#Ukraine #Libya #Russia #ShadowFleet #Drones

[Umberto Profazio @profazio]

Kyiv's inroads reverse years of diplomatic estrangement, offering a chance to capitalise on the Gulf's security needs. Read more in my Food for Thought piece for the @NATOFoundation⬇️:

https://t.co/F1qhIbtvdG

#Gulf #Ukraine #Iran #Drones #ArmsTransfers

[Umberto Profazio @profazio]

A win-win situation 🇺🇦 🛡️

In the lucrative Gulf arms market, local partners are pushing for diversification. This allows newcomers like Ukraine to export its expertise and battle-tested aerial systems to counter the barrage of Iranian-launched drones and missiles. /1

[Umberto Profazio @profazio]

Russia and Saudi Arabia draw closer amid OPEC upheaval https://t.co/d8O6pjRPNc

[Umberto Profazio @profazio]

Read my full analysis on the structural shifts driving this split and its impact on energy markets suffering from regional volatility in the latest Gulf Strategic Trend for the @NATOFoundation. Full paper available here. /2

https://t.co/06N30e2Mwv

#Gulf #UAE #OPEC #SaudiArabia

[Umberto Profazio @profazio]

Diverging paths 🇸🇦🇦🇪

The Emiratis' decision to leave OPEC and OPEC+ represents the culmination of an intra-Gulf competition that has rapidly come into the open.

The move speaks volumes about the ailing state of multilateralism and the future of global energy architecture. /1

[Umberto Profazio @profazio]

To know more, read my latest Gulf Strategic Trend for the @NATOFoundation, available at the link below. /2

https://t.co/OpCgJ9T0Yg

#Gulf #Israel #UAE #IranWar‌ #NATO

[Umberto Profazio @profazio]

Dynamic duo 🇦🇪🇮🇱

Facing Iran's aggression, Gulf States have received considerable support and military backing from partners. Israel's defence partnership with the UAE stands apart for its geopolitical implications, with Tel Aviv intent on doubling down on the Emiratis. /1

[Umberto Profazio @profazio]

'Au fond, la véritable question n’est peut-être plus de savoir si le Maroc et l’Algérie peuvent parvenir à une réconciliation complète, mais combien de temps encore le Maghreb peut se permettre le coût stratégique de leur rivalité.' @jeune_afrique

https://t.co/bNCOGPJTRi

[New Lines Magazine @newlinesmag]

Since Druze militias took control of Syria's Sweida province in 2025, the region has become a Captagon hub run by former Assad officers and internationally sanctioned crime figures, and shielded by Israel.
https://t.co/8DLs5z84ll

[ᴅʀ. ʜ.ᴀ. ʜᴇʟʟʏᴇʀ 🖖🏾 ⚜️ @hahellyer]

Trump raised Abraham Accords expansion with regional leaders Saturday. The response, per US officials: silence. Not reluctance. Silence. That silence isn't just about the Accords. It's about how detached Washington has become from a region it claims to understand. 🧵

[Umberto Profazio @profazio]

'In this context, many armed and political elites perceive competitive elections not as a pathway to legitimacy, but as a potential threat to entrenched economic interests and patronage networks.' @africaarguments https://t.co/PxFZqbAaBK

[Ahmed Zaher - أَحْمَد زَاهِر @AhmedZaaher]

Il vero dato politico di questo formato non è soltanto la cooperazione sulla migrazione.
È il fatto che l’Europa, incapace di contribuire alla costruzione di uno Stato libico stabile e sovrano, sia ormai costretta a condividere la gestione del Mediterraneo centrale con attori esterni al suo stesso spazio vitale.
Che un dossier strategico per la sicurezza europea venga oggi coordinato insieme a Qatar e Turchia rappresenta di per sé un indicatore della crisi geopolitica europea nel Mediterraneo.
La Libia non è diventata il centro della soluzione,
ma il centro della gestione permanente dell’emergenza.
Il problema, infatti, non riguarda soltanto l’immigrazione irregolare.
Riguarda il progressivo trasferimento della sicurezza mediterranea verso equilibri regionali esterni, in assenza di una vera strategia europea di stabilizzazione statuale.
Quando l’obiettivo diventa contenere i flussi senza ricostruire lo Stato, si produce soltanto una “stabilità funzionale” fragile, temporanea e facilmente ricattabile.
Ed è proprio qui che emerge il paradosso:
più l’Europa tenta di esternalizzare il controllo del caos libico, più aumenta la propria dipendenza geopolitica da quel caos stesso.
@kajakallas @vonderleyen @eucopresident @EU_Commission @Europarl_EN @GiorgiaMeloni @GiuseppeConteIT @Agenzia_Italia

[Tg3 @Tg3web]

Il caso Almasri. Il generale libico accusato di crimini contro l’umanità e crimini di guerra. La sua difesa chiede che venga giudicato in Libia e non davanti alla corte penale internazionale.

[Umberto Profazio @profazio]

https://t.co/DYHEkwRCng

[Umberto Profazio @profazio]

My post from 10 months ago about the killing of Palestinians in Gaza has been removed from LinkedIn. I have been informed just today, as I was checking notifications. /1