I genuinely don't understand why every trader isn't preparing for CPI like this.
6+ years trading this release. The framework is stupidly simple:
Stop trying to predict the number.
Start mapping what each outcome does to rate expectations.
Here's the whole thing:
1. Know the chain: CPI โ Fed expectations โ markets repricing.
Hot = higher rates repricing โ bullish USD, bearish gold & US equities.
Cool = higher rates repricing โ the reverse.
2. Ignore the consensus number.
You need to pull the full range of institutional Minimum/Maximum estimates instead. That's what the market is actually positioned for.
3. The range is the game.
Inside the range you get chop and reversals. Outside the range, the markets arenโt expecting this you get the real clean move.
4. Build your playbook before the print.
Don't chase the first candle. Wait for price to confirm the repricing.
CPI drops Tuesday. Most traders will react to it. You'll understand it.
Full walkthrough in the video. Bookmark this and comment "CPI" for my exact pre-release checklist.