zet

Investor. NFA.

[zet @profitzet]

@AtlasShrug1 Jg

The “commodity” argument is getting old. 1.6T optics are literally entering the biggest AI infrastructure buildout we’ve ever seen, and AAOI is scaling into it. Competition doesn’t kill the thesis — demand growth does. And I don’t see that happening anytime soon.

[zet @profitzet]

I’m bullish on $NBIS, and a big reason is Arkady Volozh.

This isn’t some random CEO who suddenly decided to build AI data centers.

Volozh co-founded Yandex and spent decades building and scaling one of the biggest tech companies in Europe.

Now he’s applying that experience to AI infrastructure, at a time when demand for compute is going absolutely crazy.

I keep seeing people question whether Nebius can actually scale fast enough.

Maybe they can’t execute perfectly — that’s always a risk.

But I’m not going to bet against a guy who has already built and scaled a massive technology company.

I’m betting on Volozh to figure it out.

[zet @profitzet]

I get the bearish argument around CPO and InP, but honestly I think it’s too early to write the whole InP thesis off.

Yes, pluggables use more InP today. Yes, CPO has thermal issues. And yes, VCSEL could end up taking some share.

But I think the bigger picture is being missed.

AI networking requirements are going absolutely insane. We’re going from 800G → 1.6T → 3.2T, while GPU clusters keep getting bigger and more interconnected.

I also don’t think CPO needs to completely replace pluggables for the InP thesis to work.

If pluggables keep scaling AND CPO/NPO gradually get adopted, that’s still a massive increase in optical demand.

Maybe CPO takes longer than people expect. Maybe another architecture wins.

I’m not betting on one specific architecture.

I’m betting on one thing: AI is going to need an absurd amount of bandwidth.

And I don’t think we’re anywhere near the end of that trend.

[bubble boi @bubbleboi]

Interesting facts I learned today

Pluggables actually use much more InP than CPO. The reason the InP trade was always associated with CPO is that the laser quality and stability is so high it’s like a double bottleneck where a small % of them can get qualified for use thus it greatly multiplies the demand for InP more than normal.

Thus I see this “shortage” as extremely levered to CPO working despite having less InP content. I’m not bullish on CPO or NPO for scale up at all and even when it comes to switches and I don’t think those will be widespread for another 3 years at best. Even worst CPO is actually WORST than copper for scale up when it comes to power efficiency because of thermal tuning !!! I found this to be really shocking since that was the only real reason to use it for scale up in the first place.

VCSELs seem more promising and don’t have any InP content at all. It’s too early to say if they win as there are many drawbacks but much easier to fix than CPO imo. Then we have the added fact that better chip packaging lowers pressure on networking (or at least keeps it the same) and the added fact that for inference architectures you probably can get away with just a simple 25G interconnect since bandwidth isn’t stressed as much as training.

With all this being said, why would you be long the InP supply chain directly or indirectly? Seems like a lot of assumptions baked in that are going to need to become reality fast.

[zet @profitzet]

Genuine question.

Is Michael Burry a retard?

[zet @profitzet]

By the way this is the last time you see $AAOI below 140$.

After $LITE earnings we going straight to 200$+.

You decide what to do.

[zet @profitzet]

@ak_dfranco Why so bearish? I expect at least 50%

[zet @profitzet]

@NBISDood What?

[zet @profitzet]

I love $AAOI.

[zet @profitzet]

Adding to this bullshit again.

Hopefully this goes to 125$ and fills my limit order.

Before $LITE earnings is free money.

$AAOI.

[zet @profitzet]

@pepemoonboy Be careful, very risky

[zet @profitzet]

@Trradinglounge Buddy you invest in $MSTR

[zet @profitzet]

Woke up.
Portfolio green.
Photonics are back.

Life is good.

[zet @profitzet]

@antibearthesis I would liquidate all and go all in on $AAOI

[zet @profitzet]

Futures open slightly red.

[zet @profitzet]

I’m really excited for $NBIS earnings.

People are getting scared because of the fag Burry, but if you actually look at the fundamentals, the thesis keeps getting stronger.

My conviction in neoclouds is still very high, and I see $NBIS as one of the leaders of the sector.

[zet @profitzet]

@Matrix_B0SS Why not 1000000$

[zet @profitzet]

@retard3dinvst0r Fair

[zet @profitzet]

@SpinCapx Yup

[zet @profitzet]

My 3 favorite sectors right now:

Space:
$ASTS
$RKLB

Neoclouds:
$NBIS
$CRWV

Optics:
$AAOI
$SIVE

[zet @profitzet]

@htownharde79290 I want one before $LITE earnings

[zet @profitzet]

Will be saving up cash to buy the dip on memory.

Short term bear, long term bull.

I believe optics will have a very good run. Don’t want to miss it.

$LITE $COHR $AAOI