Prof Norman Fenton

Making sense of math, probability & risk. Bayesian. Causal knowledge + data

[Prof Norman Fenton @profnfenton]

Thanks to amazing work by @stkirsch I have finally regained access to my X account after being locked out for 4 months.
So I can finally promote my new book to followers:
https://t.co/fm5KbfTRcr

[Prof Norman Fenton @profnfenton]

Please read this important article by Daniel Jupp

https://t.co/RViy2BC0oa

[Catherine Perez-Shakdam @ShakdamC]

Let's talk about Qatar.A country the size of Connecticut that has somehow convinced the West it is indispensable. It is not.
It is a gas station with a PR department. It hosts Hamas' political bureau - not in hiding, in office, for over a decade .

It funds Gaza by the billion, then calls itself a "mediator" when the war its money fed comes due . That is not diplomacy. That is arsonist-fireman, the family business.
It buys your universities by the tens of billions , runs a state broadcaster that foreign critics have called, correctly, a propaganda channel, and when it wanted the World Cup, it worked thousands of migrant labourers into the ground - rights groups put the toll in the thousands; Doha's official count: 37 stadium deaths.

And when it needed the American president compliant, it handed him a $400 million flying palace - a gift so naked even his own allies called it a bribe and a national security risk, with Republican senators warning it could be "rife with political espionage".

Every dime Qatar spends abroad has the same objective: to be needed by everyone, accountable to no one. The emir doesn't buy influence. He buys the absence of scrutiny.
Stop calling it an ally. It is the velvet glove, and the hand is not yours.

[Prof Norman Fenton @profnfenton]

Another must-watch interview as @TRobinsonNewEra reveals new background information about his recent trial.

[Winston Marshall @MrWinMarshall]

EXCLUSIVE: Tommy Robinson On British State Operation Behind His Court Case, Patriot Platform Growth And Grooming Gangs Cover-Up From The 1910s

Political activist Tommy Robinson (@TRobinsonNewEra) joins me to discuss Britain's grooming gangs scandal, his recent court conviction, and his new book, The Grooming Gang Cover-Up.

We discuss his investigations into grooming gangs, allegations of institutional failures, his battles with the justice system, free speech, censorship, and the controversies surrounding his career.

A conversation about immigration, two-tier policing, public trust, and the growing divisions shaping Britain's future.

Link in replies.

[Prof Norman Fenton @profnfenton]

@baldyduck Yes there are lots of details like that in the book.

[Prof Norman Fenton @profnfenton]

https://t.co/wsprO6vd1w

[Prof Norman Fenton @profnfenton]

@LucyTCWife and here is the review I just posted about it

https://t.co/YUu4pzhQ5X

[Prof Norman Fenton @profnfenton]

https://t.co/wsprO6vd1w

[נועה מגיד | Noa magid @NoaMagid]

Look how beautiful! The snow melted so quickly, and the sun came out.

By the way, the merchandise is Israeli.

[Hearts of Oak @HeartsofOakUK]

Montgomery Toms - From Brighton Mob to Paris Streets: Fighting for Free Speech

Montgomery Toms, founder of Freedom Watch GB, joins Peter to describe the organisation’s work recording public debates on free speech, immigration, national sovereignty and related issues in universities and on the streets. He recounts the Brighton incident in which a crowd damaged equipment and attacked the team over its positions on mass deportations and sovereignty, with police intervening, and notes similar hostility during filming in Paris amid protests, including tear gas and physical confrontations. Toms discusses the erosion of common-law protections, the Magna Carta and the English Bill of Rights by later legislation, mixed experiences with police, and concerns over speech-related arrests, digital ID, surveillance and the Online Safety Act. He argues for continued open debate despite rising threats, rejects violent revolution in favour of political organising and electoral action, and expresses support for Restore Britain while criticising Reform UK for inconsistency on immigration, national identity and free speech @MontgomeryToms

[Dani Blekman @Dani_Blek]

Palestinians and their useful idiots want you to believe that this is how weather and the laws of physics work.

[Dr Brian of London 🇮🇱 @brianoflondon]

This is the story currently exploding on Israeli right X. We all know the way prosecutions are handled in this country are completly political and terrified of Arab crime families.

Superintendent Boaz Balat is heard accusing Israel’s State Attorney’s Office of keeping old criminal files as...

Now ready with English captions.

[Prof Norman Fenton @profnfenton]

Wow. The level of antisemitic hatred described here …..

[Jemima Goldsmith @Jemima_Khan]

I am going to describe some painful and personal things in relation to Russell Brand because I have been put in a position now where I feel that I have no choice other than to do so, given the misleading reports and speculation around the facts of a harassment injunction that was taken out to protect me and my family.

Firstly, and most importantly, I am and have always been strongly and unequivocally on the side of all of Brand’s victims. I am in awe of the courageous women who came forward at Brand’s trial, told their stories, testified and ensured justice was done. I have had my own personal experience of his violence, coercive control and abuse. I had to call the police to have him removed from my house in 2014 during a violent incident. I chose not to press charges at the time and not to go public with this, as I was worried about the impact of the press attention on my then teenage children. I have neither seen nor spoken to Brand since that period in 2014. Whilst my pain in relation to this, pales in comparison to what the women have testified in court have suffered, this was a difficult period in my life which has had a lasting impact.

Over several years, I assisted the journalists who finally exposed him; Ros Urwin, Louisa Compton and Dorothy Byrne.  I also undertook to testify in court to his abusiveness, if the newspaper that published the victims’ accounts were ever to be sued.

I have spent much of my professional career trying to support unfairly demonised and silenced women, such as Monica Lewinsky and defending free speech.

In 2014, a harassment injunction was taken out against a woman called Szilvia Berki which was made final in 2015. 

I fully understand the good intentions of those now advocating on her behalf online and agree with their demand for this harassment injunction to be varied, as my lawyer made clear to Berki’s lawyer in December last year.

However, the commentary and media reporting this week has presented an untrue narrative, which has opened me up to vile hatred and abuse online.

For this reason, and to correct the record, I am providing the factual background to that injunction to explain why The High Court found the campaign of harassment by Berki against me to be, "oppressive and unacceptable” and made the order permanent.

The background to this is that Ms Berki came to my house for roughly 30 minutes in June 2014, after I booked her to give a massage to Brand. By the time she arrived he had decided he didn’t want a massage and asked her to leave. She was clearly offended. I was present the whole time he was with her, and I did not see anything untoward, despite the fact that he was later found guilty of sexually assaulting other women and he later physically assaulted me. If I saw any man abuse any woman under any circumstances, I would do my utmost to stop them, without hesitation.

Ms Berki later reported to the police that Brand had pushed her in the back whilst she was leaving the house and that she also said she was “attacked” by my dog, which she described in her police statement as my dog licking her face. The police rightly investigated Ms Berki’s complaint. I cooperated fully with the investigation, provided a truthful statement about what I saw and also provided CCTV footage, which showed my overly exuberant but totally unaggressive dog jumping up.  

Following an investigation into Ms Berki’s allegations, police concluded that there was no case to answer and that no criminal offence had been committed.

According to the police, at no time did Ms Berki ever state to them that she had been assaulted, threatened or falsely imprisoned.

There was also a subsequent review of the investigation by the IPCC and Thames Valley Police Professional Standards which found that the original police investigation had been correct in its findings.

In the meantime, several untrue stories appeared in the tabloid papers. Ms Berki forwarded an email to me confirming a payment for one such story she had received from The Sun newspaper. Articles were also published in The Telegraph, The Mail and The Mirror at Ms Berki’s instigation which contained her account of the alleged incident.

Then having at first said in a story published by the Daily Mail that she had found me to be “really very nice, very, very nice,” she later embarked on a campaign of vicious antisemitic and threatening abuse online and in emails.

Below is just a sample of some of those tweets and messages sent over many months (which were submitted to the judge who granted the harassment injunction)-

(Jemima is a) “deeply rotted JEWISH Bitch”

“Did you know that if your life is in danger you can LAWFULLY kill your attacker as defence?! … by now I could have lawfully kill at least 5-6 people who were hurting me”

“Also happy birthday (Jemima). I hope you have more. In other words I hope you don’t die this year.”

EMAIL- “If you make me very upset…you can expect the worts from me – I think you know this – without that I need to remind you”

“What is going on in Britain is a dictatory of J evils. English Jewish Evil dictatory”

“Would like to see justice, and I do not think that I should do it myself but what can I do when every organisation is scared of Jevils! ;)”

“They say … Do not hate all Jews because you know a few Jewish evils. They are on top always decadent and evils”

“Fortunately there are many mansions outside of the UK where Jewish money aristocrats are still not welcomed

#Germany #Austria #Italy #Hungary”

"Judge on High Court: I ordered her to shut up Jew. Do I have a case or not? soon we will kill her then".

“A pity that I was in the UK. BB In Hungary if you would report the Police they would for sure find it without an investigation already that the Jews are guilty. Sad”

“Every organisation is scared of JEVILS”

“When my great grandparents see what Jews did to me they do something in heaven to solve this. I will not make my hand dirty with Jews.”

“J evils … Rob, lie, crime”

“I am so happy I am free from the English Jewish Evil dictator and outside of England the High Court cannot rule”

“Probably I wait a bit more and than go public. What is going on in Britain is a dictatory of J evils.”

She sent an enormous volume of similarly disturbing emails and tweets to or about me, to my family, to my workplace, to journalists from the national media to members of my family, to UNICEF UK where I had been a goodwill Ambassador for decades, and to organisations my ex-husband was associated with, and to MPs.

She began disseminating on social media wild and untrue allegations about me, ranging from kidnap to cyberhacking, to having someone bump into her and laugh at her in the tube station, having her followed by two men, bribing the police, paying off a judge, and other false and alarming conspiracy theories based on my Jewishness.

The number, tone and content of these messages was extremely frightening. It was distressing for my then teenage children and my family. I was concerned that Ms Berki was potentially a real danger to my family and me. I have had stalkers before and this behaviour felt similarly threatening.

Although I was at this point no longer in contact with Brand, I agreed to the suggestion by his lawyer of a harassment order. My sole reason was to stop Ms Berki targeting me and my family. The harassment injunction was upheld by the High Court and Court of Appeal on several occasions.

I engaged a lawyer of my own when I was made aware that Berki was applying to the court to vary the terms of the injunction. And I instructed my lawyer in December last year to approach Ms Berki’s barrister to say that I agreed to vary the injunction so that she could speak to the police again if she wanted to. I also instructed my lawyer to engage on her other requests.

I did this despite my real fears that the harassment would re-commence and that her threatening antisemitism, if again unleashed, might exacerbate the danger to my children and me that we continue to face because of our Jewish heritage and their father’s political career and incarceration in Pakistan.

Her barrister has not responded to my lawyer since May of this year despite trying to engage him. I was informed by her lawyer that any change to the injunction must also be agreed by Brand.  I have no ability to compel Brand in this matter, as I have not seen or spoken to him in over a decade.

I hope this information will help clarify speculation about my involvement in the anti-harassment order.

I am glad and relieved that Russell Brand has finally faced justice.

[Niyak Ghorbani (نیاک) @GhorbaniiNiyak]

According to the IDF and COGAT, more than 91,000 tents and 8,200+ trucks of blankets, tarpaulins and winter clothing have entered Gaza, along with UNICEF vaccines, mobile clinics, medicine and hospital fuel.
Israel knows Hamas terrorists steal this aid instead of giving it to civilians, and it sends it anyway.
Now show me one mainstream outlet covering this. You won't find one. They boycott every story like this because it doesn't fit their narrative.
The only ones who benefit from that silence are the terrorists of Hamas.
👇

[Steven Barrett @SBarrettBar]

We all paid to give Gaza fresh water and safe drainage.

They dug them up to kill Jews.

[Wayne Kuykendall @WayKuy4truth]

It's hard to believe this is true, but it is!

[Maarten Boudry @mboudry]

A year ago, I published a long essay in @Quillette debunking the “Gaza genocide” calumny and exposing the disingenuousness of its proponents.

It was translated into French by the magazine @LePoint, as well as into Polish and German. And in my own language Dutch? Every single newspaper I pitched it to in Belgium and the Netherlands turned it down. No dissent on this question is tolerated in the Low Countries — not in the press, and certainly not at the university, where my rector declared that anyone questioning the genocide narrative was “crossing a line that should not be crossed”.

But I have finally found a way to publish at least part of the essay in Dutch: it will appear as the foreword to Genocide en Gaza, the Dutch translation of an excellent new book by political scientist and genocide expert Joël Kotek of @ULBruxelles.

Did I mention that this internationally renowned genocide scholar (https://t.co/OMBFHuhb5D) happens to agree entirely with my thesis? Are you listening, rector De Sutter (who deleted her account @pdsutter)?

[Raja Miah @recusant_raja]

I thought it was past time that I wrote something on Tommy Robinson. The more I researched, the angrier I got. So many politicians on the right should be ashamed of themselves. It is so easy to judge someone when you have no idea just what was done to him.

https://t.co/MzUYoA7L4O

Please sign up to my newsletter if you enjoy the article. I share all my content for free. There are no paywalls to access any of my work.

I very much doubt my viewpoint will go down well amongst the chicken shop cartels and jacked up jihadists that all but run my home town.

Raja Miah MBE

[Prof Norman Fenton @profnfenton]

This interview of @TRobinsonNewEra by @danwootton needs to be widely shared.

https://t.co/DlBD7q7JYr

[Mor Edge Insight @MorEdge_Insight]

A number of people have been asking me what an Intifada really is. They’ve heard people say it’s a violent uprising and terror, yet they’ve also heard the pro Pali crowd claim it’s just “peaceful” resistance.

So instead of doing the whole I say-they say thing, I thought I’d show it instead through this really good video by @CUFI.

The Second Intifada was not just some protest movement. It was a sustained campaign of suicide bombings, shootings, and stabbings that killed more than a thousand Israelis between 2000 and 2005.

It began after Camp David collapsed. Palestinian groups, including Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and factions of Fatah, deliberately targeted civilians, buses, restaurants, nightclubs, and markets. The Dolphinarium discotheque bombing in Tel Aviv in June 2001 killed 21 people, most of them teenagers. That attack, and dozens like it, produced the Israeli operations that followed.

The security barrier and the checkpoint system were built during and after the Intifada because the bombings were occurring inside Israeli cities with such frequency. They didn’t exist beforehand as a cause. They were the response once the casualty numbers became unsustainable.

The word “intifada” is now used by activists to mean generic resistance. The historical record of the one that actually occurred is a multi-year terror campaign whose primary method was the deliberate indiscriminate murder of civilians. The fence and the checkpoints reduced those attacks sharply once they were in place. That sequence is documented. The claim that it was only peaceful protest is not.

When you watch the two minute video, which I encourage you to do, you’ll instantly notice the similarities in some of the footage to the riots you see today in France, Italy, Spain, Germany and other parts of Europe, and also a few that occurred in the US over the last two years. These are still just the beginning. That will change soon enough. It will get a lot more violent. A lot more deadly. And what will be telling is how your governments choose to deal with it.

We had over a thousand Israelis killed during the intifada. But we also have a much smaller population. When it hits Europe and the US, it will make even 9/11 look small. It isn’t a case of if it happens. It’s just a case of when.

[Aizenberg @Aizenberg55]

Hamas child soldier Yamen Thabet (ID 424685626 Age 16) was lauded by family for "rigging houses and roads with explosives." These are some of the children, always dressed as civilians, that the IDF had to confront. Silence from those who claim to care about Gazan children.

[Andrew Doyle @andrewdoyle_com]

Academics at a London university are being made to take a test they can only pass by professing the “correct” opinions.

Compelled speech is a hallmark of authoritarianism and must always be resisted.

My latest post is now up! Read here: https://t.co/UECwmHd7MC