Entrepreneur. Curious, observant and imaginative. Learning every day. Trading/Broking/Sales - did it all. Not financial advise, just thinking out loud.
@dampedspring@JaredKubin Those are 1st day post IPO close expectations by retail and live market to trade on IG index.
(Just felt it to short Anthropic at 1.97 trillion cap)
The S&P 500 is at an all-time high while Consumer Sentiment is at an all-time low.
We've never seen a gap this wide between Wall Street and Main Street.
Investors have never used this much leverage:
US margin debt surged +$83 billion in April, to a record $1.3 trillion.
Over the last 12 months, margin debt has risen +$453 billion, or +53%.
As a result, margin debt is up to a record 5.2% of US GDP.
This is ~3 percentage points above both the pre-2008 Financial Crisis level and well above the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble peak.
Market leverage is through the roof.
A 20% gain in the S&P 500 tech sector in four weeks has happened only three times in 100 years.
1929. 2000. 2026.
The first two times ended badly.
The third just happened.
The market is a great teacher. It just charges very high tuition for the same lesson.
@dampedspring Buffett’s market-cap-to-GDP indicator is at all-time highs at 225%, way above the 2000 peak - so when you wave off the comparison by cherry-picking single-stock multiples, you’re arguing the air at the top of the mountain is thinner than the air higher up the same mountain
@verniman S&P closed 7.7% > its 50-dma Friday, but only 52% of components were above their own 50-day. In 30 y that breadth divergence has never happened when the index is this stretched. Friday was also only the third time since 90 the S&P hit a new ath with more new lows than new highs
@MasterPandaWu S&P closed 7.7% > its 50-dma Friday, but only 52% of components were above their own 50-day. In 30 y that breadth divergence has never happened when the index is this stretched. Friday was also only the third time since 90 the S&P hit a new ath with more new lows than new highs
S&P closed 7.7% > its 50-dma Friday, but only 52% of components were above their own 50-day. In 30 y that breadth divergence has never happened when the index is this stretched. Friday was also only the third time since 90 the S&P hit a new ath with more new lows than new highs