An abliterated top-tier open weights model today can tell you how to build a nuclear weapon. The challenge to building a nuclear weapon isn't knowledge. It's not even really resources.
Iran has knowledge and resources. They can't build one.
Why? A lot of other entities with knowledge and resources have a vested interest in making sure Iran doesn't have a nuclear weapon, and they get in their way.
If you wanted to build a nuclear weapon in your basement, to vibecode one with abliterated GLM 5.2, you would find that your efforts are stymied at every turn.
Even with step by step instructions, even if it was good enough at day-trading (it's not) to make you a tidy profit to finance your operations, you would find you would quickly attract the attention of law enforcement and the intelligence community.
It turns out they really don't want you to have a nuclear weapon!
If GLM-5.2 were good enough to tell you how to build a superplague (it's not), you would quickly learn a similar lesson in biology.
It turns out the challenge to building a superplague isnt really knowledge. Just as there are thousands of nuclear physicists with the theoretical knowledge to build nuclear weapons, there are thousands of biologists who have the theoretical knowledge required to make a superplague.
But if they wanted to do it, or if you wanted to, with your abliterated GLM-5.2-Bio-Edition, you would find that you would be stymied at every turn.
First you would design your virus particle or virus-like-particle. You could do this in the computer. But now you need to make it.
Traditionally you would order it from a company like Thermo-Fischer scientific or IDT. They'll synthesize a DNA strand for you and send it back so you can inject it into a cell of your choice to get it to produce the protien you want. For a fee, they'll even get an organism to express it for you and send *that* to you.
But, it turns out they're not stupid. And if you engineer a highly virulent strand of ebola and send it to them, before they help you make that, they're gonna say "hey wait a second, this kind of looks like a highly virulent strand of ebola!"
They will get upset, law enforcement will be contacted, the cops will show up, and so on and so on.
So maybe you'll do it yourself.
You have GLM 5.2-Bio-Edition and GLM 5.2-Trading-Edition so you make a bunch of money to order the expensive, highly specialized equipment you need to do this complex synthesis at home in your basement.
So you go online with your roughly $300k and start trying to order a Mermade DNA synthesizer and assorted sundries and suddenly they're asking all these strange questions like "what's your .edu email" or "what institution are you a part of?" and you don't really have answers to those questions because you're just some guy trying to make a superplague in your basement.
And actually it turns out the Government, intelligence community, and Bio Research technologies company *also* have GLM-5.2-Supply-Risk Edition and so they notice you trying to order all the parts to make a superplague in your basement.
They get very upset and the cops get called and so on and so on.
And *actually* it turned out *everyone* had access to GLM-5.2 Trading edition, so it wasn't so easy to make a killing on the market to finance your operation in the first place because your agent wasn't placing trades against human rubes, but against a whole hoard of *other* agents every bit as intelligent as itself, so the net result is that the market became slightly more efficient, but no one was really able to lock in asymmetrical gains.
Unless, however, *one* person had access to the GLM-5.2-ASI-Edition. Because if that person had access, they would be trading against rubes-by-comparison, and they would make a killing in the market to finance whatever operations they please.
And their ASI would be smarter than anything anyone else had, so it could engineer a VLP that thermo-fischer wouldn't be able to detect and reject on site. Or it would be able to deftly bypass supply chain safeguards, hacking into MIT or something (who has no ASI defender) to get you a .edu email and the appearance of institutional backing.
See, in a world where everyone has ASI, it's as though no one does. It's just normal society, where everyone's wishes and capabilities are mediated by group dynamics, everyone kind of has to stay within the overton window, and deviations are policed largely by the community, and then by the state when need be.
But in a world where only anthropic has ASI, or only openAI, or only the US government, then the *first* bad idea they have is immediately implemented with no resistance, with no hope of stopping it.
And on a long enough timeline, its only a matter of when, not if, they will have a bad idea.
Pluralism has served America well for a long time, and when it comes to ASI, I'm a pluralist too.
Reading what they did to this tree over time to "help" it reminded me of what the imperium of mankind does to help humanity in Warhammer40k.
Including:
Concrete Filling: Pumping solid concrete into the hollow trunk cavities for support.
Waterproof Wrappings: Covering exposed branches with lead sheets and fiberglass.
Chemical Sealants: Painting open wounds with protective coatings and fire-retardant paint.
Mark wants the United States to double-down on a folly that is much his own making, he’s just a deeply unserious talking head.
‘There is no strategy shift that will result in a different outcome’, that just doesn’t exist.
On the contrary, if we try this shit again, we’re actually going to get the shit smacked out of us.
The ‘one’ lesson that the IRGC took away from this war is that “the US doesn’t like ballistic missiles, and it likes accurate ballistic missiles even less”, so their defense sector is going to go into overdrive mass producing them — and not the shitty “to whom it may concern” ones either.
Not only was Iran’s nuclear program not destroyed, pretty much all of their HEU was transferred to a tunnel complex at Isfahan that we simply declined to airstrike.
This isn’t “new news”, the team over at the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists has shared satellite imagery of Iran’s personnel moving this HEU from Fordow to Isfahan ‘last year’, which they shared before the war was in full swing this year.
The Isfahan storage complex isn’t Fordow either, it doesn’t have a bunch of poop-chutes that USAF can drop smart bombs into, it is a storage complex. Seizing or neutralizing that HEU ‘requires’ deploying ground troops.
Seeing as the Isfahan complex is right down the street from one of the IRGC and Iranian military’s largest complexes in Iran (with space for at least a corps worth of guys — read, 20k to 30k troops); is a relatively short distance south of Tehran (and the two divisions based there, one of which is an armored division — so another 10k to 20k guys); in addition to the on site security force and a police battalion based like 3 blocks away from the Isfahan complex (another 1500 guys); and that the immediate area is bristling with anti-air assets (that’s why we lost an F-15, and the CSAR helicopter sent to fetch the pilots was all shot to hell)… seizing Isfahan would’ve required dropping in a division’s worth of troops smack-dab into the middle of Iran.
Anyone who didn’t bother reckoning with all of the above, but still wanted to “take out Iran’s nuclear program” is just deeply unserious.
Trump: "Let's make a deal and end the war."
Iran: "These is our complete and non negotiable super maximalist list of demands."
Trump: "Agreed."
Iran: "You're not even going to read it?"
Trump: "No need, I'll just sign it."
Iran: *confused Iranian sounds*
Trump: "So we have a deal?"
Iran: "We also want Israel out of Lebanon."
Trump: "No problem, anything else?"
Iran: "..."
Trump: "Hello?
Iran: "OK, OK, we want you... *laughing*... we want you... *wheezing*... we want to you to call Bibi a crazy son a bitch that belongs in prison and that everyone hates him!"
Trump: "Done."
Iran: "Deal!"
It all could have went very different for Iran if:
- It had no missiles & drones able to penetrate opponents defenses and answer back...
↪️ 🇺🇲 + 🇮🇱 would have certainly hit Powerplants & bridges
- It had no 60% enriched weaponizable Uranium...
↪️ Entirely possible that it's Missile Cities & Nuclear sites would have been hit by chemical or even tactical nuclear weapons
- It had no persistent & credible control over the Strait of Hormuz on which world economy depends...
↪️ A U.S. naval & economic blockade could have put Iran under siege without any leverage to counter it with time on its side
- It had no super-hardened Missile & Drone Cities...
↪️ U.S. & Israeli stand-off missile power, and Airpower, would have neutralized Iran's capability to hit back at will and persistently
- It had no ambush-type air-defenses to hold opposing Airpower at risk...
↪️ 🇺🇲 & 🇮🇱 Airpower with low-cost guided bombs could have suppressed Missile & Drone launch operations and badly degrade Iran's missile launcher fleet
➡️ Only the combination of all of this, and more, lead to the outcome we witnessed
Iran is a very... different country...
Im old enough to remember in 2020 the amount of anger in Iran the day Trump killed Soleimani. The funeral procession around the country was the biggest I had ever seen.
In the 6 years since then, America and Israel ramped up the psyops, economic siege, and doing maximum instigation to try and destroy the relationship between people and government, building towards regime change. Despite instigating two waves of riots in 2022 and 2026 through lies, mindraping, and terror agents on the ground, as well as conducting two wars, they still failed.
Literally every single intelligent person on earth knew that the Iran "war" was going to be a complete disaster
This is not hyperbole. If you thought otherwise, you are actually fucking stupid, and that includes Trump and even the self-serving Jews who thought it would work
RABBI CALLS NON-JEWS APES 🚨
Chabad rabbi Chaim Mentz on Fox News just compared Jews to humans visiting Planet of the Apes and non Jews to savage monkeys.
They hate us with pure venom.
But if you import stolen minerals from the third world to make advanced chips and stealth fighter jets, you get to become a superpower right?
So the people of the third world are like whores to you who are good enough to be f*ucked but not good enough to be brought home as wives, right?
And another bar:
“The party that is attacked finds it difficult to explain a "softening" option internally. Domestically, it is often forced to adopt a hardline stance, and even has to escalate further to prove that it has not been completely suppressed. The costs of the conflict do not dissipate, but are postponed, accumulate, and subsequently backfire on the party that initiated the provocation.
This raises the issue to a higher level: a seemingly brilliant tactical move does not automatically equate to a guaranteed strategic victory. No matter how dazzling the tactical effect, if it's not incorporated into a clear overall plan, it could become the beginning of dragging oneself into a quagmire. If decision-makers are attracted by short-term "impressive results," they will develop a decision-making path driven by "short-term KPIs," gradually leading themselves into an endless war of attrition amidst seemingly continuous successes.”
He is in the comments defending the unnecessary war that almost took the global economy with it, and his excuse is October 7th. Their excuse for the war was "Regime change because Iran killed 25k, 45k, 100k of its own people in January. Iran should never have a nuclear weapon."
Three months later, 1,000 civilians have died, the regime is still there, and Iran is now controlling the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump’s approval ratings in the US are now under 30% because of this war, but Trump’s African supporters see nothing wrong with the war and still think it was necessary.