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The rhythm and duration of $BTC cycles are evolving.
The 4 year cycle is intact until it isn't.
Most people just aren’t noticing the subtle shifts.
Take a look at my chart and you’ll see that BTC keeps creating new ATHs sooner each cycle, which means recoveries happen faster.
At most, we’ve got 4–6 months left, then it’s likely straight up from there.
$BTC
Same playbook as in 2022.
Historical PA has always been the real edge, but context is everything. It’s not about comparing fractals randomly, but about identifying the ones that are relevant for specific market conditions.
If this current fractal plays out as expected, a retrace below $60K would likely mark the macro bottom.
HIstory doesn't always repeat. However, it has served me well for 6 years.
Might regret posting this. Not doing the whales any favors here, the accumulation clock is ticking.
The mathematics behind the next $BTC ATH high break.
Coming faster than most see it, the last push before the big collapse of 2029-2030.
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Something interesting is happening with $BTC...
Most of us are familiar with Bitcoin’s clinical market cycles. Historically, bear markets last about 365 days, and by that metric we’re roughly 1/3 in.
What’s different this time is speed. Price is dropping faster than usual, 1.25x. Since BTC topped in October, earlier than past cycles, it’s reasonable to expect the bottom to arrive earlier too.
My base case: we bottom in August, not Q4. That’s why I’m planning to accumulate between June, August.
Part of this is intuition, but the structure supports it.
Cycles appear to be shortening. As institutional demand grows, it will increasingly absorb miner and OG selling pressure. When that balance shifts, BTC may start behaving less like a boom-bust asset and more like a traditional risk asset, closer to the S&P 500’s cycle profile.
Based on drawdown math, we’re likely 22–30% from the bottom. Historically, smart money builds spot positions in the -40% to -60% range. I don’t expect a -70% drawdown this cycle.
I think we’re 20% away from the bear market low, with the bottom forming in Q3.
Using the 365-day model, there are 200 days left to a formal bottom. That gives us two paths:
• slow sideways chop with a gradual bleed, or
• a faster dump that ends the bear cycle early
I am betting that we bottom sooner. So I am buying at
69K.
65K.
60K.
55K.
50K.
45K.
Don't cry because its over, smile because it happened.
Note: In regards to massive swing longs, you will know when I am long.
My Next $BTC Plan
I have placed scattered short orders between 83.4K and 86.6K, with my invalidation level at 90.3K.
The trend still is still bearish, and I believe this represents the maximum extension zone from which BTC is likely to form a lower high.
@cysic_xyz wtf is this? $CYS do not buy this SCAM coin, look on-chain, it has no liquidity, the same addresses buy and sell for $10-11 for alleged activity, on binance alpha there are also purchases and sales of 200-220 tokens, be careful
@tomatofroots@cysic_xyz $CYS do not buy this SCAM coin, look on-chain, it has no liquidity, the same addresses buy and sell for $10-11 for alleged activity, on binance alpha there are also purchases and sales of 200-220 tokens, be careful