To Profit

learning AI investing + building hardwares

[To Profit @quaestusx]

Airlines

bad biz for shareholders
bad biz for customers
Asian airlines are the best due to state subsidies and a level of high excellency

American airlines are horrible due to low margins biz so lots of cost cutting and 0 incentive in the culture to provide good service when no money is being made

So what makes airline biz a good biz?

state subsidies (Asia, Middle East)
a culture of excellency / shame without excellency (East Asia)
targeting luxury/high income individuals (Delta)
securing long term biz contracts (Delta)
Still learning about airlines but seems like the only good ones either

Act as a government public transportation in countries of high trust and safety (Asia, Middle East)
A luxurious service for high income and companies, ie targeting the top 10% in high income countries like US and 1% or 0.1% in lesser income regions in LatAm, Europe, Africa, SEA, others
Would appreciate any feedback thanks!

[To Profit @quaestusx]

Well written thesis

[NINGI RESEARCH @NingiResearch]

We are short $SIVE.

A retail-driven pump built on speculative hyperscaler links, a fabricated bottleneck narrative, and a rumored volume ramp-up has driven a 1,800%+ rally in $SIVE.ST.

Insiders sold ~29M shares into it. Here's what they're not telling you.👇 Full report: https://t.co/4QEyuXQIQb

[NINGI RESEARCH @NingiResearch]

We are short $SIVE.

A retail-driven pump built on speculative hyperscaler links, a fabricated bottleneck narrative, and a rumored volume ramp-up has driven a 1,800%+ rally in $SIVE.ST.

Insiders sold ~29M shares into it. Here's what they're not telling you.👇 Full report: https://t.co/4QEyuXQIQb

[To Profit @quaestusx]

@Buyside_Hub @HighyieldHarry First time hearing his voice. Unfollowed.

[To Profit @quaestusx]

@claudeai @PythiaR Sales tactic

[To Profit @quaestusx]

@pmarca BX in the making

[Alex Muresianu @ahardtospell]

General Electric was worth around $90 billion before it started its final fragmentation in January 2023.

Its main successor companies are now combined worth almost $700 billion.

[To Profit @quaestusx]

@pmarca Ok

[To Profit @quaestusx]

@Restructuring__ The bank is called Elon Musk

[To Profit @quaestusx]

As a Gen Z looking at AI developments from Cursor to how homogenous the world has become so you can connect across cultures and values, I may be contrarian to say I’m very very hopeful for our future.

I don’t think it’s possible to understand for previous generations how there’s a new breakthrough in medical, in software and overall productivity everyday with AI and increased compute & capacity.

I think this is better than the renaissance where men can focus on building not just their wealth via AI but the whole of productivity extends beyond work and into how you build your body, your relationships, your worldview, your diverse uncorrelated skillset from philosophy to potmaking.

As the generation entering the workforce I don’t even care if this is a bubble of course this is unprecedented in many aspects yet so similar to previous eras of the Internet, the telephone, the railroad, the printing press, invention of the fire. Even if the bubble pops innovation has increased to unprecedented levels and you can build anything.

I remember a couple years ago when I was 14 it was a hassle to build anything online from web design to coding to video editing, nowadays people who use AI with their experience are creating insane things online and can even move it offline to hardware, and the barriers of entry for newbies are so low that with enough creativity and personal edge you can carve our your own niche to win. Please tell me how if the economic bubble burst this is going to stop.

I don’t even get the premise of school / a good job / big house / job title / job pay / vacation in Monaco being the absolute defining factor of your success.

You get to build it and define it for this generation.

Of course this world fucking sucks and there’s so much negativity, but I believe personal liberty — the ability to choose how you would like to live and define your own version of success has never been better.

I think my kids are gonna ask me how it is to grow up in this era like how we ask the boomers how it is to have everything so easy. Seize the fucking day.

[matthew sigel, recovering CFA @matthew_sigel]

🚨 VALUATION GROUND FAULT

$DLR just paid $27M/MW at a 6.5% cap for three fully-leased AI data centers, with 3.6% escalators, 15-year leases. This is now the North Star for stabilized AI infra.

To refresh: Miners are converting Bitcoin infrastructure at $3-12M/MW. Same NOI economics (~$1.5M/MW). That's $15-24M/MW of value creation, if you can execute.

CIFR, and HUT are two public miners that have signed triple-net leases with investment-grade hyperscalers, the same lease structure as DLR's Northern Virginia portfolio.

To see what the market thinks of their remaining opportunity, take each company's disclosed stabilized NOI (net operating income), capitalize at DLR's 6.5% rate, and subtract net debt. That's the contracted book, valued at the clearing rate $DLR just paid. (The signed leases are already funded at the project level, so no additional equity is assumed to get there.)

Subtract that from the actual market cap. The residual is what you pay for everything uncontracted: the energized capacity sitting idle (or mining BTC) and the pipeline behind it.

The highest quality part of that residual is energized but unleased MW. Power on, interconnect done, substation built, no lease yet. Even if you attribute the entire residual to just these MW and give the pipeline zero credit, the implied values are roughly:
>$2.9M/MW for CIFR's ~313 MW >$2.1M/MW for HUT's ~443 MW.

Eight to fourteen cents on DLR's dollar for capacity that just needs a lease (not a permit).

And the gigawatts of development pipeline sitting behind all of that: Zero. The land is free.

There is no optimism in these valuations. In a market where plenty of stocks are priced off 2030 earnings, these companies cannot get any credit for powered land they already own.

The market is pricing the long-dated pipeline as if AI infrastructure demand stalls, lease rates collapse, and the opportunity never materializes.

Every lease signed, every MW energized, every quarter GPU rates hold is a step toward closing that gap.

[To Profit @quaestusx]

Interesting

- 2025 global commerce spending 60T, Ecom 6T

- 2030 global commerce 67T, Ecom 8T

3-5T for metaverse is 30-60% of e-commerce, so they’re saying most ppl will just tell an agent to buy the best shampoo for looksmaxxing or book a reservation for 2 vegan introverts in Midtown, bypassing the websites (which we are already seeing now)

[Rohan Paul @rohanpaul_ai]

Mckinsey report - AI agents are quietly taking over the retail shopping cart and could mediate $3 Tn to $5 tn of global consumer commerce by 2030.

Instead of just suggesting a product, an AI agent can now scan multiple stores, check inventory, and build a ready-to-buy shopping cart.

This shift is happening across 6 different levels of automation.

- At the lowest level, the AI just compares prices and features so a human can make the final choice.

- At the highest level, your personal AI agent negotiates directly with a store's AI agent to get the best price and shipping terms.

Brands will increasingly compete to win over algorithms rather than just human shoppers.

For this to work, retail stores must make their product catalogs and return policies machine-readable by software via API

If a brand only focuses on looking good to humans but hides its inventory data, the AI agents will simply ignore it.

Stores that expose their pricing and stock data through clear software connections will dominate this new landscape, while those relying purely on flashy marketing will lose out as machines make the actual purchasing choices.

Automation ranges from simple product comparisons to full machine-to-machine negotiation.

[To Profit @quaestusx]

Is there an AI that maps out supply chain of capex spending players from META to China’s CXMT, and able to identify major beneficiaries and produce value & growth investing framework?

I know there’s the ai bottleneck website but where’s the modelling, numbers, and latest data part? It seems quite ez to build, any engineers / coders think I’m j being stupid?

[To Profit @quaestusx]

Chinese Hedge Funds Warn the AI ‘Super Bubble’ Is Ready to Burst (bloomberg)
- china AI infra company lack moats to AI, likely crash 80%+
- anthropic's ARR will falll short of expectaitons (50B+), 3 reasons:
1. run rate comes via amazon, googl resold, not as materially huge
2. much of rev comes from enterprises, if they switch to cheaper chinese models or pay less it'll balk
3. majority rev from claude code, competing w/ codex + googl in future

personally staying bullish on AI in China long term:

- joe tsai, alibaba, says china is underinvested in AI
- China prepares $295 billion plan to fund nationwide AI buildout, Bloomberg News reports

I think fears are completely valid esp for companies without a strong moat, and I guess to improve margin of safety I'll personally long market leaders w great boats:

$BABA & Tencent imo has such a huge potential for them. imo they're undervalued due to 1. saas selloff 2. china depressed consumer spending 3. recent yrs china capital exit.

but the fundamentals of AI innovation and their ability to capture market is unchanged.
Sure Anthropic might miss and markets will freak out but you are buying into a growing TAM if u hold a LT view. Maybe u can short SOXX or semi stocks before Anthropic announce numbers (so maybe aug/sept)

[To Profit @quaestusx]

I have to build / dream / learn / bet / win bigger.

[To Profit @quaestusx]

Opening my short position for $IREN here

- dogshit company in neoclouds space
- poor shareholders value
- why does a neocloud need to advertise to basketball fans? What is it over compensating for?

[Golden State Warriors @warriors]

Welcome to Dub Nation, @IREN_Ltd 👏

Golden State and IREN announced today a landmark multi-year global partnership that will include the IREN badge on all Golden State Warriors jerseys beginning with the 2026-27 season.