MM Update: This flush brought to you by Binance using Wintermute. All red lines (100x) removed on Bitcoin, all yellows (50x) removed on $SOL and $XRP, all blues (25x) removed on $SUI, $ETH and $HYPE - barely anything flushed on $BNB their own token.
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$BTC declined nearly 5% as $3.5B in realized profits were taken. The 14 July edition of Market Pulse anticipated this risk.
By combining on-chain and off-chain indicators, we provide forward-looking context.
Here’s what signaled caution: 🧵👇
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Wild examples below:
Bitcoin network activity has dropped sharply. Our Network Activity Index hit 3.47k, one of the lowest levels in the past 1.5 years.
But data suggests this kind of silence often precedes the storm.
Here’s what the data says: 🧵
Speculation is going nuts on BTC at a time when there's plenty of investor profits to take (SOPR).
Reminds me of "be fearful when others are greedy".
A lot comes down to how much buying happens this week when US markets open after a long weekend.
The REAL reason markets are crashing:
Over the last 2 months, the S&P 500 and crypto have erased a combined -$5.5 TRILLION of market cap.
We have just witnessed one of the most SUDDEN shifts in sentiment since 2020.
What's happening? Let us explain.
(a thread)
When looking at this recent move in the DXY through a historical lens, its challenging to be anything but bullish. I ran a signal screen for 3-day negative moves of more than -2% & -2.5% and found they have all occurred at Bitcoin bear market troughs (inflection points) or mid-cycle bull markets (trend continuations).
As always with Bitcoin, the statistical significance of medium-term signals is severely constrained by dataset history (not enough), but this is an objective data point to keep in mind.
Results 👇
When looking at this recent move in the DXY through a historical lens, its challenging to be anything but bullish. I ran a signal screen for 3-day negative moves of more than -2% & -2.5% and found they have all occurred at Bitcoin bear market troughs (inflection points) or mid-cycle bull markets (trend continuations).
As always with Bitcoin, the statistical significance of medium-term signals is severely constrained by dataset history (not enough), but this is an objective data point to keep in mind.
Results 👇
Windsurf Wave 4 is here!
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