Quant

crypto hft - usually wrong about everything

[Quant @quant_xbt]

@explosivesox @AetherXCapital I don’t mind retarded. In fact, I like retarded. What I do mind is “coordinated”

[Quant @quant_xbt]

If you can actively trade DOGEUSDT profitably, you can trade every market under the sun.

[Quant @quant_xbt]

@bcherny bro what did you do

[Quant @quant_xbt]

I've been using Opus 5.5 for 12+ hours a day since it came out.

I can confidently tell from firsthand experience that they nerfed it since the last few hours.

Jfc.

[Quant @quant_xbt]

@Z0llan same experience with new sessions

[Quant @quant_xbt]

@molaco_ Dario pays me $500k per tweet

[Quant @quant_xbt]

@Armv7lFx lmao

[Quant @quant_xbt]

To this day, I still don’t understand why I paid $700 for a WiFi microwave.

[Quant @quant_xbt]

@TheReal50972902 It doesn’t

[Quant @quant_xbt]

@21lajbJ It does

[Quant @quant_xbt]

@0xLoris lmao

thanks brother

[Quant @quant_xbt]

@0xLoris My guess too is that they'll enable withdrawals, maybe it's cope, but I really think they will.

For now we're just trading whatever opportunity the closed environment provide, which if resolved favorably, is likely good. Lots of people trying to indirectly withdraw.

[Quant @quant_xbt]

Happy birthday!

[Bitget @bitget]

The view hits different from up here.

#BitgetTurns8

[Quant @quant_xbt]

Why use Opus 5.5 with medium effort when you can use GPT 6 Astra with ultra effort at 10x the cost, 10x the slowness, and half the intelligence?

[Quant @quant_xbt]

Opus is good again, chat.

[Quant @quant_xbt]

For those who don’t understand why I say this, win rate only really means something alongside the magnitude of your wins and losses.

If I make $1 on every positive trade but lose $100 on every negative trade, a 92% win rate still means I’m losing money despite the very high win rate.

On the contrary, if I lose $1 on every negative trade but make $100 on every winning trade, a 10% win rate still means I’m profitable.

Without any edge, the magnitude of your losing trades is expected to offset the winning trades in proportion to how often each happens, plus a little more lost to spreads, fees, slippage and/or adverse selection.

Unfortunately, this isn’t something you get to choose. You can’t just play with the asymmetry between your take profits and stop losses and fabricate positive expectancy out of nowhere.

If you want a very high win rate, it’s as simple as taking profit very tightly while setting your stop losses very loosely. You’ll win very often, but when you lose, you’ll lose much more.

On the contrary, you can set your take profits very wide and your stop losses very tightly. You’ll have a much lower win rate, but your wins will be much larger than your individual losses.

You should always remain skeptical of the opinions of a turkey.

[Quant @quant_xbt]

You can have a 92% win rate and still lose money.

You can have a 10% win rate and still be profitable.

Win rate tells you absolutely nothing about how good or bad a trader is.

[BQ @BaseLayer365]

🤡 Payaso tengo 9 años haciendo trading.... Y creeme dices una de las payasadas más grande que existe. Si claro con un 10% de win rate puedes ser rentable. Suerte con eso

[Quant @quant_xbt]

https://t.co/nnqRHijvmM

[Quant @quant_xbt]

You can absolutely manufacture your win rate by adjusting TP/SL asymmetry. That does not create edge. Expectancy is the only thing that matters. +5 bps TP with -50 bps SL can print a 90% hit rate and still be a loser after costs. What counts is net keep per trade. Trading R:R is trading guru BS.

[Quant @quant_xbt]

You can have a 92% win rate and still lose money.

You can have a 10% win rate and still be profitable.

Win rate tells you absolutely nothing about how good or bad a trader is.

[degenomics.hl @degenomics]

86% win rate on my trades since 2024 on Hyperliquid

Last 30D performance is 92%

Data from @hypurrdash

[Quant @quant_xbt]

https://t.co/yBMpASXKfM

[Quant @quant_xbt]

This must hit pretty hard if you know nothing about the markets.

I’m here to tell you that you can easily achieve a ~90% win rate if you just set your stop losses 10 times as far away from your take profits, and you’ll likely still lose money.

You can trick the math however you like, but there’s no substitute for edge if you want to make money trading. Don't fall for this BS.