Quant

crypto hft - usually wrong about everything

[Quant @quant_xbt]

Saylor is discovering from first principles what convexity looks like when you’re naked long an inverse BTC contract.

[Quant @quant_xbt]

I don’t think I’ve seen Bitcoin’s sentiment this bad in months (likely over a year even). I might actually be a buyer here.

[Quant @quant_xbt]

Do people really think that when an asset is bought, there’s no one on the other side selling it?

[Crypto Tea @Cryptotea]

Bitcoin was 69k in 2021 before Saylor and ETF’s bought $160 billion

can someone explain?

[Quant @quant_xbt]

@jagmavi 🎯

[Quant @quant_xbt]

@0xEniotna There's always a but, it's not an isolated factor.

[Quant @quant_xbt]

Not a trader: You can’t beat the market. EMH.

1 year as a quant trader: EMH is the dumbest thing academia ever came up with. Markets are obviously inefficient.

3 years as a quant trader: JFC. Every edge is crowded, every signal decays, and the market is basically efficient the moment I try to trade it.

[Quant @quant_xbt]

@0xdoug Wait, I need to be in peak athletic condition too?

I thought being willing to get covered in shit was the edge.

[Quant @quant_xbt]

@Steven_McKie @roshunpatel A modest 3bps fiat<>stable conversion fee

[Quant @quant_xbt]

What 7 months at one of the world’s top trading firms does to a mf

[MaryCate Delvey @marycatedelvey]

No

[Quant @quant_xbt]

@CryptoKaleo Plenty of banking systems worldwide allow you to send 100k+ to a stranger without any issues. This is bank-imposed, not a shortcoming of the technology. It’d be the exact same way if they used a stablecoin underneath. I’m a stablecoin bull, but this is the wrong take.

[Quant @quant_xbt]

@svbmrgd Thanks!

[Quant @quant_xbt]

What's the Codex equivalent of Claude's --dangerously-skip-permissions?

[Quant @quant_xbt]

I honestly don’t think there’s any market where “Main St.” has an edge over “Wall St.”

There may be markets where some retail participants have edge over other retail participants, but on the long run the big boys always win.

[Tarek Mansour @mansourtarek_]

Kalshi is the only financial market where Main St. has an edge over Wall St.

Gigi, Nicholas, Brandon, Joel, Heather, Paul, and Stephanie have all found their edge and mastered their own niche on Kalshi.

Prediction markets are the people’s markets.

[Quant @quant_xbt]

@ScottPh77711570 @NeelBParekh Bro low-key shared the best parenting advice one can hear at this stage

[Quant @quant_xbt]

@SBF_FTX @realDonaldTrump JFC, is this what you did at Jane?

[Quant @quant_xbt]

@0xfunds Yeah probably for some tasks, but honestly, even when I waste a bit of time fighting with it, I still end up way ahead most of the time. Hard part is knowing when to give up and just do it yourself.

[Quant @quant_xbt]

Battle with Claude Code on Opus 4.7 for an hour over an issue that feels trivial but it just can’t get right.

Ask Claude to write me a handoff so I can take the same issue to Codex.

Codex on GPT-5.5 gets it right on the first try.

This has basically been my workflow lately.

[Quant @quant_xbt]

@okx whoever thought this was a good idea should be fired immediately. JFC

[Quant @quant_xbt]

@okx bring back the specific network address whitelisting for EVM addresses. Pooling them all into an "EVM Address" instead of allowing for a specific network address is the stupidest, most error-prone thing you've done for crypto UX.

[Quant @quant_xbt]

It feels like everyone in my TL has had a Jane Street interview.

At the same time, they have over 3k employees, and they likely interview at least a dozen for each hire, so it checks out. Also, my account likely has a massive selection bias too from the X algo.