QuantDominus

Tech sector trader, stock/options. Independent research and analysis. Not financial advice.

[QuantDominus @QuantDominus]

1) The very fact that CXMT is telling Apple its priority goes to China’s domestic companies is exactly why Apple shouldn’t be allowed to source from China in the first place. This is deeply subversive behavior by Apple. US memory maker Micron is blacklisted in China, the Pentagon followed suit reciprocally with China, Apple needs a reminder which team it's playing for.

2) It also appears CXMT understands the incentive not to race to the bottom. They’re signaling they expect to remain capacity-constrained. Why discount when someone else will simply pay the prevailing rate?

[QuantDominus @QuantDominus]

@jukan05 So the main villain wasn't 2x levered Koreans, it was 4.5x over-levered golden boy Leopold...

[QuantDominus @QuantDominus]

@smartertrader I think u mean SKHY, right?

[QuantDominus @QuantDominus]

@DeItaone Customs: Is that a robot?
Importer: No, robot parts... We have a robot here that puts them back together again.

[QuantDominus @QuantDominus]

@firstadopter The reason why memory is expensive now is cause Apple's been charging 5x the cost to create their own margin.

With Apple at the top reaping all the profits, there wasn't much room for investment. Now they want to go to China, when we could be onshoring American fabs.

[QuantDominus @QuantDominus]

He got it wrong though, forced the memory stocks down as AI kept upping the specs / and the transition to DDR5 limiting supply.

He took an air pocket, and made it sound like a cyclical peak. Forced the stock to be cut in half, just before it rocketed on AI. Everyone talks how MU 16x'd, well it was never suppose to be that low to begin with.

[QuantDominus @QuantDominus]

@zephyr_z9 Must be one of those Korean memory makers, they are they only ones making sub 11gbs HBM4. 😂

[QuantDominus @QuantDominus]

@brandonjcarl Supply contrained, they literally said that on the call. You can't grow something at a 800% CAGR before you run out of something, like data centers... or atoms in the universe. 🙄

[QuantDominus @QuantDominus]

@R_and_Invest They said to expect 'significant' capex increases in '27, its probably just timing. This is the capex increases for the remaining four months of '26.

[QuantDominus @QuantDominus]

@jukan05 How many times are model weights already replicated in a hyperscaler that can handle these 10,000 clients?

A few hundred times? a few thousand?
Just pointing out we aren't starting from one.

[QuantDominus @QuantDominus]

@ronjonbSaaS Some late reported trade, probably from a private pool during premarket, miscoded as live, micron never got above 900 during RTH.

The spike up doesn't exist on my charts (Schwab)

[QuantDominus @QuantDominus]

@jukan05 HBM4 has lower margins cause it's negotiated farther ahead, and they couldn't price in the run we've had. HBM's trade ratio with DRAM sucks up supply, and DRAM prices climbed, but SK Hynix by focusing on HBM gets the least upside from current prices as a result.

[QuantDominus @QuantDominus]

@jimcramer Micron is up 9% atm, I'm sure SK Hynix will be up tonight as a result, making that price "3% up from last nights close" a big discount nonetheless.

[QuantDominus @QuantDominus]

@mdotjacks25 @DeItaone Every year bit consumption will increase, even well into 2040. Price will moderate as supply catches up, but there's no 'demand' pop on the horizon.

[QuantDominus @QuantDominus]

@jukan05 When the memory stocks start using their piles of cash on stock buybacks, weak hands will just improve the fundamentals, creating a virtuous cycle, or the stock corrects to its fair value.

In the end, the stock market is a weighing machine.

[QuantDominus @QuantDominus]

@aleabitoreddit Given it's a reply specifically to the Kyber claims adds some credibility that it's not just a general statement.

[QuantDominus @QuantDominus]

"looks to have peaked in 2Q26"
Your graph actually shows it not peaking until early '28...

Check how Samsung is raising prices 20% in 3Q26 or how UBS believes they'll increase 32%....

You're misreading your graph, and all other datapoints if your sticking with '2Q26' as peak.

Finally, the word "oversupply" hear means any quantity that comes online that bring prices down from their peak. And yes, sometime in '28 or early '29 most agree prices will come down as volume picks up. This isn't contra to virtually all of the bullish analysts, it's part of their forecast.

[QuantDominus @QuantDominus]

@EugeneNg I asked Grok to redraw the graph in terms of absolute price...

[QuantDominus @QuantDominus]

@kevinxu You are going to have to put more quarters in if you want to keep playing this game...

[QuantDominus @QuantDominus]

@StockSavvyShay Would have bounced hard already if SNDK didn't decide it needs to drill to earth's core today.