QuantPunter

Trying to beat the bookies / stock market using machine learning and common sense...

[QuantPunter @QuantPunter]

@jeremyphoward Isn't this inherently anti-capitalist? Since when do we mandate corporations share their IP?

[QuantPunter @QuantPunter]

@crow_data_sigh Go do the Dally M then!

[QuantPunter @QuantPunter]

The clear #1 by this methodology is @greenlitaccount (see the models sheet), who also won in 2023 and came second by a whisker last year. Big congrats there - he clearly has a very good handle on it. However there were lots of good models, so thanks all for your submissions.

[QuantPunter @QuantPunter]

Feel like I say it every year, but what a crazy count last night. Not complaining though, that's the beauty of it - you're not trying to predict the best, you're predicting who the umps think is best! It's why is hard, and why there is so much good betting! Long may it continue!

[QuantPunter @QuantPunter]

Assessing the various predictions always a bit subjective - there are many metrics you can use and any one on it's own is a bit subjective, so I've gone with six and ranked the models based on their average rank across all six.

[QuantPunter @QuantPunter]

@brownlowboss I’m aggregating all available Brownlow counts. Wanna be included and put your predictions to the test?

[QuantPunter @QuantPunter]

@_colonelsander_ @greenlitaccount @SgtButane done

[QuantPunter @QuantPunter]

It's that time of year again - Brownlow Eve. Here are the 2025 consensus predictions round by round! If you have a model / or know one that's missing, comment below (still awaiting a couple incl. last years' winners @greenlitaccount and @SgtButane ).

https://t.co/zUJe7ny2LY

[QuantPunter @QuantPunter]

@_colonelsander_ @greenlitaccount @SgtButane It def doesn’t. My systems just couldn’t handle a team playing twice in the same round, so made a captains call on that. Caveat emptor on this stuff for betting purposes!

[QuantPunter @QuantPunter]

@Damion23 Running a comparison sheet again this year (have for the past several years). Keen to add your count to the mix if interested.

[QuantPunter @QuantPunter]

Thanks to @joel_cashman5, @JMichaelsESPN, @Before_You_Bet, @andrew_whelan for putting their numbers out all year.

[QuantPunter @QuantPunter]

Will do a post-count tweet during the week announcing "best" submission according to a weighted avg of several metrics (see last years' sheet for details) and discussing anomalies, points of interest, etc.

[QuantPunter @QuantPunter]

Going to do this again! Have you got a Brownlow model? DM and I’ll add it to the sheet which should be out later tonight. Always good to look at the different predictions and then compare again after the count. Last years’ consensus votes were pretty accurate!

[QuantPunter @QuantPunter]

2024 consensus model predictions on Brownlow Eve... Still awaiting a couple of submissions (and open to other prior to start of the count tomorrow). Looks to be a two-horse race this year...
https://t.co/9U9CAZ9sVf
@WheeloRatings @greenlitaccount @MatterOfStats @optibrebs

[QuantPunter @QuantPunter]

@AflGlicko lol. Another data point

[QuantPunter @QuantPunter]

@AflGlicko It’s also my team, and your opinion holds some weight. Just not as much as Scotty, oppo coaches, media pundits, SuperCoach stats, pro gamblers. You asked why people say smith better… consider it answered!

[QuantPunter @QuantPunter]

@AflGlicko Everyone is entitled to their own view, but the arrogance to assert something as fact when it’s co traduced by the media votes, the coaches votes, the Brownlow votes, the SuperCoach, fantasy points, every fan on the planet etc etc is pretty stunning. And from a uni kid no less!

[QuantPunter @QuantPunter]

@AflGlicko Smith better on most metrics including every media poll, CV, Brownlow votes, SC. Holmes better on PR

[QuantPunter @QuantPunter]

@AflGlicko Oh so he would be better but <insert subjective reason why he isn’t >?

[QuantPunter @QuantPunter]

@AflGlicko Apparently neither does Chris Scott + oppo coaches who have given Bailey more CV in less games 😂