Analysis Paralysis

L/S Equities | Experience in Public Equities, Private Equity, FX, and FI

[Analysis Paralysis @quantum_macro]

$4238.JP Miraial seems to be working, check out my recent write-up

https://t.co/lWJxe2B4Uh

[Analysis Paralysis @quantum_macro]

@ContrarianCurse My pleasure good sir

[Analysis Paralysis @quantum_macro]

Despite being bullish oil I think this is an interesting take. The geopolitical puzzle pieces fit together pretty well. I wouldn’t say oil was solely held down by the Saudis, since SPR releases and Bessent’s futures manipulation probably had a decent effect, but it makes sense.

[SuspendedCap @ContrarianCurse]

April 2020 neg prices was caused by the Saudis RAMPING capacity to 12 mmbpd into global lockdowns because of a falling out with Russia

The lowest cost producer will sit on a balanced market but when prices soften they will rationally not sit or be the one to take off capacity and let competitors scale - they do the opposite and ram supply higher to push prices down and the worst cost structures out

Basically the Saudis have single handedly kept prices down by under pumping post 23 and at least OPEC was stable

now when 1) UAE has already said fuck it they are done 2) other opec countries sustained damage under the support of the Saudis 3) us majors are ripping supply on far lower prev cycle breakevens 4) Iran likely pumps above prev capacity 5) Venz likely ramps 6) China demand is actually structurally not going to be great -

I think they all say fuck it and rip supply higher until we actually get a true cycle again. Great balance sheets are a double edged sword in commodities because though it keeps you out of distress, it also can elongate a cycle because people will try to absorb some losses before giving up (see trucking last 5 years)

So I see reflexive downside. War gets a deal. Supply is going to come back, prices go down, OPEC fractures as people want to pump to rebuild, they all go, and prices crash

There is a little out of consensus oil content for ya on a Saturday

[Analysis Paralysis @quantum_macro]

In other news, AI company at the forefront of the new cold war reminds everyone we’re in a cold war

[Anthropic @AnthropicAI]

The US government, citing national security authorities, has issued an export control directive to suspend all access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 by any foreign national, whether inside or outside the United States, including foreign national Anthropic employees.

The net effect of this order is that we must abruptly disable Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for all our customers to ensure compliance.

Access to all other Claude models is not affected.

We apologize for this disruption to our customers. We believe this is a misunderstanding and are working to restore access as soon as possible.

Read our full statement: https://t.co/bwn0sximKZ

[Analysis Paralysis @quantum_macro]

@LukeWolgram Fair enough, what have you heard makes it difficult on the HNW side in Canada? Pretty curious myself

[Analysis Paralysis @quantum_macro]

@LukeWolgram It’s possible, 3 of my former PMs did it and my friend’s PM as well. You typically need institutional credentials and having relationships with LPs (especially pensions) helps. Not easy though

[Analysis Paralysis @quantum_macro]

The asymmetry in the long oil trade seems to be improving week by week

[Bob Elliott @BobEUnlimited]

Most institutional investors are in total denial that the oil markets could see disruptions for an extended period of time. Makes sense since none are long commodities and up to their eyeballs in stocks and bonds. h/t @thedailyshot

[Analysis Paralysis @quantum_macro]

Well, there goes the bet the labs are rational. Here’s hoping the IPOs are a good source of funding https://t.co/mxfwZbfiOA

[Analysis Paralysis @quantum_macro]

“Release the ticks”

[Hedgeye @Hedgeye]

The price of a pound of ground beef is over $7/lb.

[Analysis Paralysis @quantum_macro]

The US gov will backstop AI because Scott Bessent is vehemently aware of the effects of reflexivity. The top 10% drive the majority of consumption. If asset prices fall a negative wealth effect will lead to a recession. Remain long here imo.

[Analysis Paralysis @quantum_macro]

@sammutgabi Awareness ~ emotional maturity / internal honesty

[Analysis Paralysis @quantum_macro]

@knockouttrader An interesting beneficiary is https://t.co/pOkEHKHhkp, they produce containers that ship the wafers

[Analysis Paralysis @quantum_macro]

$4238.T Miraial

- Semi wafer container manufacturer with 70% upside & little downside
- 0.5x p/b with ~35% of the mkt cap in cash
- Revenue + margins inflecting from cycle bottom
~9x p/e on cyclically adjusted numbers vs comps at 15x+

https://t.co/NDswsMmHCd

[Analysis Paralysis @quantum_macro]

No just my thoughts. Not the first time someone claims my response is AI generated, maybe I write too formally. Anyways I was curious to understand why you felt so strongly about your opinion and this is my take on it. I respect Lee's work, but I also like your picks (I'm in CCLD too). And I agree if you on buy hype you'll get the benefits of flows.

[Analysis Paralysis @quantum_macro]

I see, ok I agree that retail can find an edge in large caps during a technological / industrial revolution if you can understand how the technology will lead to increased demand for the product/service (or new products/services) ahead of the average institution. This works particularly since LOs are typically slow to react, and speed is an edge for retail / low net worth investors. If you're more value driven like Lee, I agree with his take that valuation / microeconomic mispricings are much more frequent and are of higher magnitude in small / micro cap. The distinction in my opinion is the type of mispricing; "value investors" like to see proven economics which is not a characteristic of betting on technological shifts.

[Analysis Paralysis @quantum_macro]

@3Plantey2 @leevalueroach Curious for your take here Shrimp

[Nick Dixon @NickDixon]

Feel like this guy has waited his whole life to say this. Incredibly eloquent and accurate appraisal of the failure of Western elites.

[Analysis Paralysis @quantum_macro]

@GNewmanOfficial @ethanrkho @GavMcCracken an added piece that could explain institution’s inability to understand how the physical markets are reacting