Most of CT overhypes AI agents. This has created a lot of noise around the topic of @coinbase and @cloudflare’s x402 protocol.
Here’s how x402 applies to majority of every day people using the web, and how the first movers can make money.
🧵⬇️
picture this
> your life is a movie
> people have watched up to this exact point in your life
what would these people be screaming at the screen, telling you to do?
are they screaming
> quit the job
> leave the toxic relationship
> go learn the new skill
> take the risk?
you already know the answer of what you should do, you’re just too scared to make the commitment.
so, what is the obvious thing you’re putting off?
i just witnessed the guy parked beside me reverse out and side swipe the car next to him. then he drove off.
feeling guilty by association, even though i wasn’t even associated 🥲
what do you do in this situation?
It’s a hard pill to swallow, but shipping a nicer UI and hoping users rewrite 20 years of search habits is not 0 → 1.
When I say 0 → 1, I mean creating something that is fundamentally new.
In that context, Perplexity is trying to be a slightly better 1.
“Better product” isn’t always enough.
I'd put Perplexity's chance of surviving the next 5 years at <5%.
- no way big tech is going to allow a smaller player to control the browser-level interface. they'll muscle they way to keep market share
- the category tends to reward whoever reaches massive scale first. Perplexity does not have the resources to reach the 'big-boy' level that protects long-run dominance.
- unclear what their long-term product direction is. feels like grasping at straws