AlCloth

[Frank trading @Franktradinglog]

复盘一下做空半导体的逻辑，以及对下周一韩国的一点看法

其实上周的周报里已经写得差不多了https://t.co/2Odld4493x。这里只讲最核心的一条：这次暴跌的原动力，从来不是基本面，而是杠杆。

判断杠杆堆到了多大，我主要靠两个指标，VIXEQ 和 COR1M，再辅以 call/put ratio 和另外几个情绪指标。

先解释一下这两个指标的原理。
VIXEQ（CBOE 标普500成分股波动率指数） 衡量的是个股层面的隐含波动率。VIX 用的是 SPX 指数期权，算的是"整个指数的恐慌"；VIXEQ 则对每一只成分股的个股期权做一次类 VIX 计算，再按市值加权汇总，算的是"平均每只个股的恐慌"。当单股 call 买入极度激进、投机高度集中在 MU, SNDK, INTC, NOK这类名字上时，个股期权会被买得很贵，VIXEQ 相对 VIX 的溢价就会拉到极致，这是单股投机与杠杆最直接的读数。
COR1M（CBOE 1个月隐含相关性指数） 衡量的是市场预期的成分股之间的相关性。指数方差 ≈ 成分股的平均方差 × 相关性，所以当个股都在涨、却是彼此独立地涨（资金分散押在各自的故事上）时，相关性会被压到地量。COR1M 收在 6.33，意味着隐含相关性已经逼近历史最低。

这两个指标合起来，描述的是同一种结构：所有人都加着杠杆、押在彼此独立的个股上（主要是半导体），同时有很多对冲基金在做多半导体的同时做空价值股，指数因此被人为地压平。 这种结构最大的风险在于任何一个冲击，都会让相关性在一瞬间从接近 0 弹回 1，所有票一起跌，所有杠杆被迫同时平仓。所谓的暴跌，本质上就是相关性回归 1 的过程。
所以早在上周初，我就已经意识到了这个巨大的杠杆风险。它才是下跌的原动力。

至于导火索是什么，其实并不重要。AVGO 的财报、SemiAnalysis 对MU的负面评论、那个所谓"过热"的 NFP、Meta 的增发，这些全都只是萨拉热窝的那一声枪响。 和今年 1 月底的白银一模一样：Warsh 上台也只是导火索，真正的理由是，在暴涨过程中堆积起来的、满载浮盈的杠杆资金一旦开始出逃，就会引发多杀多，多头踩踏多头，越卖越跌、越跌越卖。结构决定方向，催化剂只决定时点。

具体到做空。我一开始只开了1%仓位的 SMH 的 put spread，这种行情你很难判断究竟哪一天会崩，但我们可以预设一个点位。我们预设的点位，就是 7495 这个 HVL（high vol level）。7495 之上，做市商整体是正 gamma会压制波动；一旦跌穿 7495，正 gamma 翻成 -gamma，做市商被迫越跌越卖，制造出更大的系统性卖压。在这个位置加空，胜率最高。 不是去猜顶，而是等结构自己翻空、做市商自己变成强制卖方的那一刻，再动手。

别的也没什么好说的了。

哦，额外补充一点对下周一的看法。
韩国股市里仍然酝酿着系统性危机，说一种最危险的左尾，大概会是这样一种情形：如果 SK 海力士周一开盘直接跌停，就不会给2x海力士（目前全球最大的单股 ETF）任何减仓的窗口，它没法在跌停板上卖出对冲、无法降杠杆，于是只能带着远超 2x 的杠杆进入次日。一旦海力士隔日继续下杀，这只 ETF 就会被彻底击穿甚至被清盘，恐慌从会从首尔直接蔓延到香港引发剧烈的金融海啸甚至传导到更远。

但是大概率韩国政府会动手救一下？让我们为韩国祈祷吧。

[Constraint Edge @ConstraintEdge]

At $AAOI $378M/month mid-2027 revenue framework = $4.5B annualized revenue.

20% EBIT margin, $900M EBIT run-rate.

Against $12.5B EV, you are paying 2027 14x EBIT while the company is growing revenues 30%.

[Ren @ren_stocks]

$SIVE Q1 earnings are out, this is exactly the news I was expecting from past financials and future growth.

I have been saying this for weeks. The bears are going to sell the headline. Do not be the bear.

The financials only give us a glimpse of the past.
Revenue down 22% YoY. EBITDA burning. Low on Cash at 26.6M SEK.
The stock will get hit by people who read the first line and stop.

I expected exactly this. And I am still holding every share.

The revenue miss is not a business problem. It is a timing problem.

US government shutdown delayed defense budget approvals. That revenue did not disappear, it got pushed to H2 2026. FX headwinds from a stronger SEK against USD and GBP took another chunk on top.

The underlying demand is completely intact.

Now here is the number that actually matters.

Pipeline grew 77% year to date to $799 million. On a company doing roughly 250M SEK in annual revenue. $799 million in qualified pipeline. That gap between the P&L and the pipeline is the entire thesis.

The CEO said it himself: record pipeline growth and several volume productions confirmed through 2027, driven by enormous interest in wireless beamformers and InP lasers.

We got confirmation of what we already k
Inferred:

SIVE is developing a 1.6T LRO pluggable transceiver with Jabil for AI datacenters. Jabil serves hyperscalers at a scale most companies never touch. 800G is already dominating datacenter shipments and 1.6T is the next wave. Being Jabil's laser partner for that transition is a real design win.

Goldman Sachs put the CPO TAM at $91B by 2028.

O-Net and Enablence locked in Q1. Both deep in the CPO supply chain. The right ecosystem relationships are being built right now, before the ramp.

LiDAR production confirmed for Q4 2026. Automotive first, then industrial LiDAR and autonomous robots. Two monetization verticals from one platform.

York Space acquisition. York Space ties directly into the US Space Development Agency. Production orders described as imminent. This takes Sivers Wireless from component supplier to vertically integrated SATCOM player overnight.

Tachyon Networks expanding from 28GHz to 60GHz FWA with SIVE. A Tier-1 telecom vendor launching first products by end of 2026.

US Chips Act EW Star renewal confirmed. Microelectronics Commons Year 2 funding secured. The defense revenue that was delayed is de-risked.

Post-period they raised roughly SEK 125M via directed share issue. The cash concern is addressed. Board restructuring with new nominees explicitly framed as preparation for a Nasdaq NY dual listing.

So you have confirmed:

Jabil.
O-Net.
Tachyon.
Enablence.
York Space.
LiDAR ramp.
Defense recovery.
Nasdaq NY dual listing.

Plus those that can be inferred via supply chain mapping:

$MRVL
$APPL

All pointing at the same 12-18 month window.

Q1 numbers are the price you pay for early positioning.

The pipeline and partnerships are the reason you hold.

I’m counting on Sweden sells, America buy to scoop some juice shares at a discount.

They will sell the financials, we will buy the chock-point into the future.

Not financial advice.

In long $SIVE

[Macro_Lin ｜ 市场观察员 @LinQingV]

全球风险资产大跌，宏观话题又回到了时间线上。我在三月聊过两次全球货币动能的话题，现在数据有了新进展，做一次更新。

3月11号我基于货币领先PMI七个月的框架给了一个偏乐观的判断：2026年1月货币增速新高，往后推7个月，8月制造业动能重新走强，全年"跌了就买"。

3月30号我修正了这个判断。当时的核心担忧是：即便没有战争，周期模型本身就指向下半年走弱，货币数据的改善更像是回光返照。而战争带来的能源冲击从两个方向夹击货币信号，油价推高CPI压低实际增速，利率上行压制名义扩张，Fed被锁死。

现在两个多月过去，数据在验证3月30号那条的逻辑。

通胀挤压正在发生：名义货币增速没变，但CPI动能走高，实际狭义货币增速从1-2月的高位开始回落。那个高点的含金量正在被通胀稀释。

但对于目前的股票市场调整，需要先把时间维度理清楚。现在是5月中旬，1-2月货币增速高点往后推7个月，对应的是8-9月PMI见顶。也就是说，制造业动能在未来三四个月内大概率还是向上的，不过囤货透支需求可能缩短这个窗口。当前的下跌，更多是情绪和事件驱动，不是基本面拐点。别把周期尾部的颠簸当成趋势反转。

真正需要关注的是另一个更直接的市场信号："货币-产出缺口"，实际M1增速减去工业生产增速。这个差值为正，说明有超额流动性溢出到金融市场；归零或交叉，支撑就没了。

我做了美国版本的图表（附图）。当前缺口 +1.6个百分点，仍然为正，但是开始了首月收窄。OECD领先指标也显示同样的图景：美国和G7刚过趋势线，但斜率在变平，中国仍在趋势线下方。

3月30号提的三个确认信号现在对一下表：实际狭义货币增速连续转负？还没有，但方向对了。全球PMI新订单跌破荣枯线？还没有，4月还在高位，但有囤货虚高的成分。原油期货从back转contango？留给大家自己跟踪。

总结：眼下股票市场的调整，从周期位置看基本面还没有到真正拐头的时间点，支撑还有几个月的余量。但3月11号的乐观需要打折，3月30号的谨慎正在被验证。流动性窗口还开着但正在关闭，逢跌买入的前提是货币-产出缺口仍为正。一旦归零，就该从进攻切到防守。按目前轨迹，这个切换点可能在今年夏天。

[Financelot @FinanceLancelot]

The Nasdaq $NDX breakout began today. The speed of this rally is absolutely insane, likely getting us back to the trendline by next week.

The question is what happens when we get there?

The 25 year parabolic is curling backward in time.

[AlCloth @quispafen]

@TedPillows neither, he just does not know what to do next

[AlCloth @quispafen]

@aleabitoreddit Not speaking for others but I feel motivated to see yours

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Traders are positioning for a major shift in US funding markets:

Daily trading volume in futures tied to the spread between the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) and the Federal Funds Rate surged to a record 56,590 contracts on Tuesday.

SOFR is the cost of borrowing cash overnight against US Treasury securities, and is closely tied to the Fed interest rate, making it one of the most important reference rates in global financial markets.

Currently, SOFR is trading at 3.63%, just below the federal funds rate of 3.64%, a sign that cash is still plentiful in the financial system.

Traders are now betting this spread will turn positive, expecting borrowing costs to rise above the Fed's rate, signaling that cash is becoming harder to access.

This comes as the Fed is cutting its monthly Treasury bill purchases to $25 billion from $40 billion, while the Treasury is expected to increase the size of its T-bill auctions in the coming weeks to rebuild its cash balance toward a $900 billion target by the end of June.

Both moves reduce the amount of cash available in the financial system, tightening liquidity conditions that have kept overnight borrowing cheap throughout 2026.

Money market liquidity is set to shrink.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

For the next photonics CW laser chokepoint.

Personal high-beta exposure tierlist:

1. $SIVE: $302m
2. $AAOI: $8.35B
3. Yuanjie (688498): $13.55B
4. $MTSI: $17.4B
5. $LITE: $56.1B
6. $COHR: $49.2B
7. Suzhou Everbright: $5.95B
8. LuxNet (4979.TWO): $1.7B
9. Henan Shijia (SHA: 688313): $6.2B
10. Furukawa Electric (TYO: 5801): $16.06B
11. Sumitomo Electric (TYO: 5802): $45.113B
12. Mitsubishi Electric (TYO: 6503): $71.2B
13. $AVGO: $1.53T

Ended up taking the highest exposure picks personally (but avoided HK listed names due to conflict of interest).

[ Q-Cap  @qcapital2020]

Anthropic wanted for first degree murder

[THE SHORT BEAR @TheShortBear]

The full story of how the war started.
Just as we thought.

https://t.co/iHuMSywH9u

[AlCloth @quispafen]

Here is what I thought about Trump’s play: how he would benefit from the “$120 oil” ? he would call this is national emergency so the US oil would only be consumed within the US then the rest of Europe and Japan would beg for US oil. Mid east oil will be restrained upon US approv

[美股OK哥 @artinmemes]

段永平又秀了

Sell NVDA 170 put：收益1400万，年化24%

Sell NVDA 190 call：收益700万，年化64%

[wu fan @wufantouzi]

我真的怀疑美国根本不怕原油涨价
巴菲特买西方石油
川普拿下委内瑞拉
都是为了今天这个局面做的埋伏
现在霍尔木兹海峡封锁
中东的油卖不出来了

那么受益的其实就是美国和俄罗斯
因为他们是产油大国出口原油大国
所以美国是有可能演戏给全球看的
继续封锁吧苦的是亚洲和中东而已

美国的cpi也不会因为海峡问题上涨
原因很简单美国的油够用啊
不够用的还是亚洲国家
这样似乎理解了
纳斯达克和btc还蛮稳的原因

加上油价上涨亚洲地区工业成本抬高
也潜在利好制造业流回美国
但看起来川普和美国又很在意油价
所以其实我也没看懂只是探讨下

以上只是猜测

[Caroline（大叔） @thcaroline2233]

石油是一切工业的基础，油价暴涨到150刀，会导致巨大的通胀。美国的cpi会直接冲到6%。到时候政府铁定会疯狂加息，那就是股灾;
1973年石油危机，美股跌了50%，1980年，1990年，两次石油危机，美股也跌了差不多的跌幅。两个月内，没有和解的可能性。
美股撑不了两个月，这场石油危机发生的概率是80%，除非川普直接说赢麻了，然后直接撤军，或者伊朗直接投降，目前看都不太可能，而且伊朗的战略目标很清楚，就是通过封锁霍尔木兹海峡，抬高油价，进而引爆脆弱的美股。在这个战略目标没有兑现之前，他们不会停手的，美国的战略也很粗糙，直接军舰护航油轮，我在gemini上查过。
伊朗地势纵深太大了，军舰护航无法完全实现通航。这是一个死局，最终会以美股崩盘为终点。然后伊朗可能会迎来漫长的制裁

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

I'm long $TSEM, the $TSM of photonics.

My top two picks for CPO are $SOI and Tower Semi.

Given the $NVDA GTC catalyst on new photonic related architecture next week:

I expect Tower Semi to get a huge catalyst.

Nvidia laready directly collaborated with Tower to scale 1.6T silicon photonics last month (hint hint for GTC), likely pushing the downstream players to use it.

And now, Tower is the leading supplier of 1.6T SiPh PICs and the primary foundry for scale-up CPO architectures. (the other being global foundries)

From my forward est:
2028 Forward P/E: ~16.8x to ~18.1x

(Tower set a target $2.84B revenue by 2028, with ~31.7% operating margin, ~$750M in net profit)

The thing to note is over 70% of their planned SiPh capacity is already reserved through 2028. And photonics haven't even ramped up yet.

So, I expect them to strongly beat earning projections due to extreme photonics scaling + allocations price hikes that's not modeled into projections.

Also, $TSEM is heavily de-risked by 70% of capacity already being reserved. MC is likely due to $TSEM being a very obscure upstream player in the photonics supply chain.

But I expect the $NVDA GTC conference to be that catalyst that brings it to premium valuations.

I'm long $TSEM as an asymmetrical upside for upstream photonics foundry layer.

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

The $VIX increased 48% this week, the 21st biggest weekly spike ever.

What has happened in the past following the biggest $VIX spikes?

Stocks have tended to bounce back with above-average forward returns.

Does this always happen?

No. There are no certainties in markets, only probabilities.

[Bill Ackman @BillAckman]

An excellent update on the war in Iran from a credible source.

[Jimmy狐狸 @jimmyhuli]

https://t.co/RTHRNESHy3