The largest reserve on the planet is also the least precisely known.
World Oil Monitor puts China's reserve near 900mn barrels; the US House Select Committee near 1.2bn.
The gap between the two estimates alone exceeds the entire US Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which stood at 286.6mn barrels on 28 August โ the lowest since 1982.
Every model of the global balance carries this uncertainty.
Asymmetry of OIL reserves between countries
Strategic cover is distributed with an extremity that decides who bids first in a crisis.
Japan holds more than two hundred days; India about ten.
The two live in different worlds โ and in a prolonged crisis India goes to the spot market first at any price, setting the ceiling on Asian premiums.
$USOIL NO matter what kind of manipulative headlines are being pushed into the market, price action continues to behave very technically and predictably.
The data are increasingly pointing toward another escalation and potentially a much larger military campaign.
- The U.S. and Iran have not reached any lasting peace agreement. The June interim agreement has effectively broken down, and recent hostilities have resumed.
- Oman rejected Iranโs proposal to impose fees on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, despite claims from Iranโs IRGC that an agreement had been reached.
- Gulf countries are accelerating alternative land-based routes and pipelines to bypass the Strait of Hormuz and reduce their dependence on the chokepoint.
- Saudi Arabia and the UAE are already expanding pipeline, port, and alternative export infrastructure.
-The U.S. is imposing sanctions and applying increasing economic pressure.
-China has shifted more of its crude imports toward Russian oil, but Russia itself is currently facing significant problems with oil production and, especially, refining capacity due to ongoing Ukrainian attacks on its energy infrastructure. Russia has already lowered its 2026 oil-production forecast to the lowest level in 17 years.
Then we have the approaching heating season, which could add even more pressure to an already depleted refined-product market. U.S. diesel inventories are at their lowest August level since 1982, while the European diesel market is also experiencing an extreme supply squeeze.
And today, the shipping premium is above $15 โ an absolute record.
The important thing is that this is no longer just about the price of crude oil. The real pressure is building across the entire physical energy supply chain: crude availability, refining capacity, inventories, transportation costs, and seasonal demand.
๐ Intervention in the Japanese market $JPYUSD
the open gap at 149 looks good, you know what I mean?
This looks excellent, especially when you call it 3/3 โ and now the possibility of intervention ahead of a rate hike looks even better than the rate hike itself.
The real catalyst would be seeing more than 25 basis points, which would bring Japanโs policy rate closer to the U.S. rate and significantly strengthen the case for further yen appreciation.
With the yen already surging and markets increasingly pricing a September BOJ hike, the setup is becoming particularly interesting.
@great_martis Right now, the price is below the largest accumulation of short positions accumulated in May and June, and just one more spike will trigger a cascade of closings.
So after escalating my problem two levels up to @TMobile tech and waiting a week for a response. Today tech told customer service to tell me that the issues I have been having for a year were due to last weekโs storm Berly. ๐คฆ๐พ
โCan you hear me now?โ