R Andrew Butters

Associate Professor of Business Economics and Public Policy at Kelley School of Business, Indiana University.

[Scott A Brave @BigDataGoSMALL]

Our recent @ChicagoFed Economic Perspectives article on the U.S. labor market using 70 years of data and theory-based priors to produce forecasts and evaluate scenarios. The model, forecasts, and scenarios can be downloaded and updated via an R Shiny app. Link in first reply.

[Scott A Brave @BigDataGoSMALL]

@ChicagoFed published our Economic Perspectives article yesterday on the U.S. labor market. We estimate a statistical model on 70 years of data guided by theory-based priors. Today's unemployment data was largely in-line with the median estimates of the model.

[R Andrew Butters @rAButters]

Another #Unemployment insurance claims report comes out this Thursday. #GoogleTrends and our model in the @iiforecasters International Journal of Forecasting forecasts a healthy increase in initial claims is likely for North Carolina arising from Hurricane #Helene.

[R Andrew Butters @rAButters]

@BigDataGoSMALL @Econ_Parker @IIForecasters Time will tell if the weakening of the labor market continues, but for one very big state, I suspect there will be some room for upside going forward--at least per #GoogleTrends (n/n):

[R Andrew Butters @rAButters]

@BigDataGoSMALL @Econ_Parker @IIForecasters What's more is if you estimate the elasticity that translates #GoogleTrends to #UIClaims from Hurricane Beryl, you arrive a a very similar estimate to the one we got in 2022, when we used the top 11 hurricanes at the time. 5/n

[R Andrew Butters @rAButters]

#Economics #PhD admissions time is here. For those interested, or those advising them--consider the Business Economics and Public Policy department at the @KelleySchool. Smaller (2:1 faculty/student), well supported program, with high caliber faculty. https://t.co/BrFLn0Gc7v

[R Andrew Butters @rAButters]

Business Economics & Public Policy @KelleySchool @IndianaUniv is hiring! Opportunity to work with a great group of faculty in a top business school. Open rank position with research interests in #appliedmicro and #industrialorganization. #EconTwitter https://t.co/JEOYfspQz5

[R Andrew Butters @rAButters]

#Economics #PhD admissions time is coming up. For those interested, or those advising them--consider the Business Economics and Public Policy department @KelleySchool. Smaller (2:1 faculty/student), well supported program, with high caliber faculty. https://t.co/KwCF9KMoMn

[Scott A. Brave @ScottBrave3]

Latest update from @IUibrc out this morning. Brave-Butters-Kelley business cycle indexes formerly produced by the @ChicagoFed show more of the same in October. Continue to signal weakness ahead for U.S. #GDP growth.

[R Andrew Butters @rAButters]

@ScottBrave3 Just released today, IBR article with @IUibrc highlighting how the BBKI can be used to assess the current economic environment. Lot of #recession talk out there, a lot of it not so useful. Check out what the BBKI has to say on the matter. https://t.co/ePPUmznQIi

[Bloomberg @business]

The batteries that help fortify California’s electric grid are kicking in at times when they’re not really needed, draining the power source before more critical junctures https://t.co/0A8ZBUckif

[Scott A. Brave @ScottBrave3]

Time for an update on #FederalReserve #interestrates policy using the @ChicagoFed Adjusted National Financial Conditions Index and @CMEGroup's FedWatch Tool. With #financial conditions loosening a bit recently, for the first time this year the #Fed is leaning against wind.

[Scott A. Brave @ScottBrave3]

@EconBerger @stlouisfed @ChicagoFed I'm pretty sure the divergence comes down to one variable that the St. Louis Fed includes in their index that the Chicago Fed does not. The series below is the 10-year breakeven inflation rate. It gets a very large negative weight in the St. Louis index: https://t.co/bGZWL50u3w

[Scott A. Brave @ScottBrave3]

@EconBerger @stlouisfed @ChicagoFed Both the Chicago Fed and @KansasCityFed indexes do not include this variable and show similar movements recently.

[Scott A. Brave @ScottBrave3]

@ChicagoFed just released April 2022 estimates for its Business Cycle Indexes. Leading Index has been below trend for almost a year now, and more than one standard deviation so since November 2021. Suggests slower GDP #growth going forward.
https://t.co/8EOt4J2nrg