Scott A. Brave

Personal opinions only.

[Scott A. Brave @ScottBrave3]

This is my last tweet from this account. Will be deleting it later today. You can find me now at @BigDataGoSMALL. Thanks everyone!
#EconTwitter

[Scott A. Brave @ScottBrave3]

I am no longer employed by @MorningConsult. If you wish to continue following me, you can find me at @BigDataGoSMALL. See you all again soon!

[Jon Steinsson @JonSteinsson]

I just heard that 1st year PhD students in Econ at MIT no longer need to take a full year of macro. This should be a wakeup call for macro, lest this turn into a new trend. Some (perhaps controversial) thoughts. 1/

[Scott A. Brave @ScottBrave3]

@Stata Without a doubt has to be margins.

[Ryan Sweet @RealTime_Econ]

Part of our key themes for 2023 is whether the Fed can reduce labor demand without pushing the unemployment rate noticeably higher, which would trigger a recession. To gauge their progress, watch the Beveridge Curve.

[Scott A. Brave @ScottBrave3]

#Retailsales surprised to the downside this morning...but if you were paying attention to the U.S. #ConsumerSpending and #Inflation report that my @MorningConsult colleagues @KaylaBruun and
@_SofiaBaig_released yesterday its was not all that unexpected: https://t.co/cbIxPKegT6.

[Scott A. Brave @ScottBrave3]

Excellent commentary this morning @KaylaBruun on yesterday's reading for #CPI #inflation and what it means for the #economic #outlook.

[CNN Early Start @EarlyStart]

Today -- the Fed announces its rate hike decision at 2PM ET.
After months into the Fed's campaign to fight the inflation.. is it working?
@KaylaBruun joined to discuss.

[CNN Early Start @EarlyStart]

Today -- the Fed announces its rate hike decision at 2PM ET.
After months into the Fed's campaign to fight the inflation.. is it working?
@KaylaBruun joined to discuss.

[Scott A. Brave @ScottBrave3]

U.S. #financial conditions stopped tightening in October and have loosened a bit since then according to @ChicagoFed. Worth keeping in mind with this week's #fomc meeting on tap.

[Scott A. Brave @ScottBrave3]

The @UMich #consumer #sentiment index for December surprised to the upside at 59.1...but not for @MorningConsult . Our daily tracking of consumer confidence, #gasprices, and #StockMarket movements has been pointing to this possibility for a while now: https://t.co/fjeBSzxCPU.

[Scott A. Brave @ScottBrave3]

https://t.co/iUWHYU9EAC

[Market Interest @MarketInterest]

What's EconTwitter making of this?

H/t @MacroAlf

[Scott A. Brave @ScottBrave3]

Latest update from @IUibrc out this morning. Brave-Butters-Kelley business cycle indexes formerly produced by the @ChicagoFed show more of the same in October. Continue to signal weakness ahead for U.S. #GDP growth.

[Scott A. Brave @ScottBrave3]

Just released for October. View the Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes (BBKI) and GDP decomposition for the U.S. Updated monthly. https://t.co/PaaRpRwZnR via @tableaupublic

[ChicagoFed @ChicagoFed]

The board of directors has announced Austan D. Goolsbee (@Austan_Goolsbee) will be the Chicago Fed’s next president and CEO. He brings to the role extensive experience in economics and policy and a strong commitment to serving the public.
https://t.co/A57eSl6kEK

[Scott A. Brave @ScottBrave3]

@jc_econ Wow! That's a huge decline. Thank you @jc_econ!

[Julia Coronado @jc_econ]

Sources at BLS highlight that the response rate for the establishment survey that give us payrolls and wages absolutely crashed in November so a lot more noise in the data

[Gregory Daco @GregDaco]

🇺🇸November #Jobsreport: Worrisome

🟢Payrolls +263k
🟢Private +221k
   ▶️Goods +37k
   ▶️Services +184k
🟢Gov +42k

🟡Revisions: -23k

✅#Unemployment 3.7% (unch)
❌Participation rate 62.1% (-0.1pt)

🔥Wages +0.6% m/m & +0.2ppt to 5.1% y/y

[Scott A. Brave @ScottBrave3]

What to make of today's #JobsReport? Payroll increases have been awfully steady lately even with a lot of volatility in the accompanying measure of #Employment from the Household survey. On a concept-adjusted basis, November, however, was at least more in-line between the two.

[Gregory Daco @GregDaco]

⚠️This severe mismatch between the nonfarm payroll employment and household employment is concerning.

It represents more than 2 million jobs!

I'm worried that when we get the benchmark revisions in early 2023 the end of 2022 monthly payroll gains get revised down...