BREAKING: The US Government has begun refunding up to $166 billion in tariffs charged under President Trump after the Supreme Court ruled the policy unlawful.
Beginning today, businesses can file claims through a new customs system.
Over 330,000 importers across 53 million shipments are expected to be eligible.
Once approved, refunds plus interest will be paid within 60 to 90 days.
IRAN COULD CONSIDER SHIPS BEING ABLE TO SAIL THROUGH OMAN SIDE OF STRAIT OF HORMUZ WITHOUT INTERFERENCE OR ATTACK AS PART OF A DEAL WITH THE US: REUTERS, CITING SOURCE CLOSE TO TEHRAN
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The White House is (truly) winning the oil jawboning battle against Tehran — still to be seen if Trump would win the physical oil market war.
But to see Brent trading at sub-$100 a barrel (and WTI below $90) after 25 days of Hormuz almost full closure is almost surreal.
Brent crossed $90 this morning & our rupee instantly fell within the first few minutes. This is really just the market's way of saying that Middle East is getting messier & moved the issue from a geopolitical headline into an economic reality faster than one could imagine.
Near term earnings will feel the pressure, particularly anything with import or export exposure. Also with 85% of our oil sourced from outside, high crude does come with major problems. Inflation, rupee weakness & margin squeezes tend to come as a direct side effect & right now all 3 are knocking our doors. Rather banging our doors!
That said, the relentless selling in markets to me feels more emotional than structural. Some of the recent sharp dips in market history looked exactly like this: 'loud & frightening' in the moment but nowhere near as damaging as it actually was.
While things settle, it makes sense to sit a little heavier in telecom, quality banks & steady NBFCs, businesses that collect their money regardless of what the headlines are doing. Avoiding anything with heavy global chain exposure right now is the smart move.
The oil situation is worth watching closely because more supply is expected to come online & any meaningful easing in West Asia could bring crude down faster than current forecasts assume. Well this would quickly change India's inflation & currency math meaningfully.
Valuations around 18.5 to 19 times FY'28 (2 yr fwd) earnings feel like a sensible ceiling in this environment & a collapse to 15 or 16 times would need news much much worse than what we are currently dealing with. Domestic India is holding growth at 7.3 to 7.5% & most large economies are navigating the same global storm.
Markets are handing out discounts today that most people will wish they had used six months from now. I am adding in this dip while remembering & applying this wisdom:
"In the middle of every difficulty lies opportunity." ~ Albert Einstein