@SawyerMerritt@Tesla For normal awareness, FSD’s current AI4 capabilities are similar to what a truly unsupervised version would do. Regardless of safety, adoption rates would likely remain similar. However, if price becomes an issue, further diffusion may be prevented.
@lexfridman Could you do deeper dive on Chinese models with ongoing efficiency breakthroughs (e.g., their Jan 2026 mHC paper) and possibility of causing DeepSeek moment in 2026 by disrupting US AI hype amid ongoing geo-politics tensions?
A major additional factor should be considered.
Satellites with localized AI compute, where just the results are beamed back from low-latency, sun-synchronous orbit, will be the lowest cost way to generate AI bitstreams in <3 years.
And by far the fastest way to scale within 4 years, because easy sources of electrical power are already hard to find on Earth. 1 megaton/year of satellites with 100kW per satellite yields 100GW of AI added per year with no operating or maintenance cost, connecting via high-bandwidth lasers to the Starlink constellation.
The level beyond that is constructing satellite factories on the Moon and using a mass driver (electromagnetic railgun) to accelerate AI satellites to lunar escape velocity without the need for rockets. That scales to >100TW/year of AI and enables non-trivial progress towards becoming a Kardashev II civilization.
This is fun to consider. Remember that selling semiconductors involves lots of other support and processes. You don’t just show up in a new business. #itainteasy
A number of people are talking about implications of AI to schools. I spoke about some of my thoughts to a school board earlier, some highlights:
1. You will never be able to detect the use of AI in homework. Full stop. All "detectors" of AI imo don't really work, can be defeated in various ways, and are in principle doomed to fail. You have to assume that any work done outside classroom has used AI.
2. Therefore, the majority of grading has to shift to in-class work (instead of at-home assignments), in settings where teachers can physically monitor students. The students remain motivated to learn how to solve problems without AI because they know they will be evaluated without it in class later.
3. We want students to be able to use AI, it is here to stay and it is extremely powerful, but we also don't want students to be naked in the world without it. Using the calculator as an example of a historically disruptive technology, school teaches you how to do all the basic math & arithmetic so that you can in principle do it by hand, even if calculators are pervasive and greatly speed up work in practical settings. In addition, you understand what it's doing for you, so should it give you a wrong answer (e.g. you mistyped "prompt"), you should be able to notice it, gut check it, verify it in some other way, etc. The verification ability is especially important in the case of AI, which is presently a lot more fallible in a great variety of ways compared to calculators.
4. A lot of the evaluation settings remain at teacher's discretion and involve a creative design space of no tools, cheatsheets, open book, provided AI responses, direct internet/AI access, etc.
TLDR the goal is that the students are proficient in the use of AI, but can also exist without it, and imo the only way to get there is to flip classes around and move the majority of testing to in class settings.
With DeepSeek’s OCR tech leveling up insanely fast, @elonmusk@aelluswamy@Tesla_AI —when do we train FSD v14 to nail basics like “No Turn on Red” signs? Self-driving needs this yesterday!
Ref:
BG2. Bessent Fair Trade vs. Nuclear Navarro, H20 & Rare Earth Ban, Exit Ramp & Market Impact 👊💥@altcap@bgurley
(00:00) Intro
(02:15) Complex Systems
(06:00) Tariff Negotiations & Free Trade
(23:19) Export Controls: AI War, H20 & Rare Earth Ban
(42:29) New AI Cold War & Zero Sum Game
(52:37) $TSLA & Market Check
Listen to Jensen reasoning through the question: how many more GPUs will the world need in five years?
What's your number for $NVDA? https://t.co/usuDePILwU