Andrew Hung 

美股探路客 Investing is a trial of knowledge about the world. Entrepreneur & venture capitalist. Stanford PhD, Chip design & 3D sensing.

[Andrew Hung  @raikk61]

週末免費開放閱讀 #Reddit $RDDT 介紹文章，9/25介紹到昨天，一個半月時間上漲逼近100%了

Reddit 2021年因Gamestop軋空事件讓全世界知曉，其實在社交媒體平台的google trend搜索量早在2011年就一路攀升

看好公司的發展策略，自己一上市就買入了，持股成本$50，但直到…

https://t.co/JQp8MC0CKz

[Andrew Hung  @raikk61]

@crux_capital_ Tom Lee said there is another big one like bear market coming. Why do it now?

[郭明錤｜Ming-Chi Kuo @mingchikuo]

Key takeaways on TSMC's next-generation advanced packaging, CoPoS (publicly available technical details omitted):

1. CoPoS is currently expected to enter mass production in 2H28. It is designed to improve the economics of ultra-large packages above the 9.5x reticle-size class, with NVIDIA’s Feynman AI chip a potential first adopter.

2. According to industry checks, glass is used in two distinct places (dimensions in mm):
→ 310 x 310 temporary glass carriers
→ 250 x 250 (pilot) / 510 x 515 (mass production) glass panels, processed and later cut into individual glass core substrates

3. The glass core substrate is essentially a three-layer structure: a glass core sandwiched between ABF (ABF-GCP) build-up layers on both sides. The widely discussed glass processing challenges, such as TGV formation and copper filling / metallization, are tied to this part of the stack.

4. Common misconceptions about CoPoS:
→ ❌ Misconception 1: CoPoS uses a glass interposer. ⭕️ Correction: The glass is not an interposer. The interconnect role is instead handled by the chip-side RDL, plus the TGV/Cu interconnects and ABF build-up layers in the glass-core substrate stack.
→ ❌ Misconception 2: Glass replaces ABF. ⭕️ Correction: As the substrate architecture above shows, glass and ABF coexist.
→ ❌ Misconception 3: Chips sit directly on glass. ⭕️ Correction: Chips are attached to the ABF build-up surface of the glass core substrate.

5. CoPoS should extend and reinforce TSMC’s leadership in advanced packaging, potentially giving that advantage visibility through around 2032.

[Andrew Hung  @raikk61]

@_Aria_2210 7

[Andrew Hung  @raikk61]

@farman4x 3

[郭明錤｜Ming-Chi Kuo @mingchikuo]

WWDC26 won't change Apple's positive 2H26 share-price trend, but it will test the staying power of the bull narrative
‒‒

1. Apple's core bull narrative right now is an almost intuitive market consensus that few people push back on: "Even if Apple is temporarily behind on AI, it will ultimately catch up and come out ahead."

2. Based on my latest supply-chain checks, I believe Apple's business momentum will remain strong through year-end, which should further reinforce the narrative into something like: "If Apple is doing this well without AI, just imagine once it has AI."

3. So regardless of what Apple says at WWDC26, as long as this core bull narrative stays intact, Apple's positive 2H26 share-price trend is unlikely to change.

4. That core bull narrative has its weak spots, but I think it has a good chance of holding at least through end-2026. How much longer it can last is what makes WWDC26 genuinely worth watching.

5. The key takeaway from WWDC26 will not be the short-term share-price reaction after the event. It will be whether Apple, using the same Gemini, can deliver better AI applications, agentic workflows, and on-device & cloud hybrid experiences than Google.

6. If the answer is yes, it would help extend Apple's core bull narrative. If the answer is no, it would suggest that Gemini sets the ceiling for Apple's AI experience. The stock may not necessarily turn bearish, but the "Apple will ultimately come out ahead" narrative would start to face growing scrutiny.

[郭明錤｜Ming-Chi Kuo @mingchikuo]

1. The Apple XR headset and smart glasses roadmap I put together about a year ago is no longer a useful reference. For now, only two smart glasses products remain visible in the roadmap.

2. The major overhaul was signed off by Apple's next CEO, John Ternus. This shift actually happened a while back. I'm just late updating the chart. I think removing the Vision Pro line was the right call, as Apple shifts resources toward smart glasses with greater mass-market potential.

3. My latest supply chain checks suggest Apple’s display-equipped AR/XR smart glasses device, powered by optical waveguides, has slipped to 2029. The display-less AI glasses, similar to Ray-Ban Meta, are still expected to ship in 2027.

[Andrew Hung  @raikk61]

@WallStreetMav SpaceOracle, a hyperscaler.

[Andrew Hung  @raikk61]

@carlquintanilla SpaceOracle

[Andrew Hung  @raikk61]

@_Aria_2210 100

[Andrew Hung  @raikk61]

@Batmantallk 81

[Andrew Hung  @raikk61]

@didem5654 110

[Andrew Hung  @raikk61]

@HedgieMarkets Most of their cusomers dont want TPU bc its difficult to use. They prefer Nvidia GPU bc of CUDA for time to market reason.

[Andrew Hung  @raikk61]

@SqSehrish 41

[Andrew Hung  @raikk61]

@zephyr_z9 Lol. Its an overstretched stock market that needs reset. Not about how many memory needed.

[Andrew Hung  @raikk61]

@StockMKTNewz SpaceOracle.

[Andrew Hung  @raikk61]

@Adam_and_EVs The entire IPO thing is to save xAI. SpaceX doesnt need that much cash. xAI is burning cash rapidly and needs bailed out solution. Musk cannt let it go bankrupt. So SpaceX is turning into SpaceOracle.

[Andrew Hung  @raikk61]

@JohnTinsman Look at $TSLA capacity today vs no of car sales. Micron trying not to repeat the same mistake.

[Andrew Hung  @raikk61]

@MilkRoadAI You mean SpaceOracle.

[Andrew Hung  @raikk61]

@JesusGodAndKing @theo No one wants TPU except Anthropic. Customers want Nvidia Blackwell.

[Andrew Hung  @raikk61]

@JohnTinsman @davidtayar5 They are different GPUs. Its normal and not so called 50% rise.