RGConsultingbz

Trainer/Consultant

[Tara @Taraa077]

@elonmusk Sam scam trying to expose elon

Elon be like - hold my cyber truck 😭

[RGConsultingbz @RaineldoG]

@Amelia558rs 14

[RGConsultingbz @RaineldoG]

To grow in life we must create tensions that bend our paths for us to provide continuing value to our life and those in the broader ecosystems https://t.co/oBw3XIXwP3

[RGConsultingbz @RaineldoG]

Create room for improving foresight and understanding weak signals by exploring the tensions in our ecosystems. https://t.co/Ds3jTjpv2x

[RGConsultingbz @RaineldoG]

@Jhade4199 14

[RGConsultingbz @RaineldoG]

Bourbon Vs. Whiskey: What’s The Difference? via @forbes https://t.co/tHPNji9IXX

[RGConsultingbz @RaineldoG]

https://t.co/xG16pgT3Di

[Sahil Bloom @SahilBloom]

My entire life changed when I accepted one truth:

You don't plan your future. You plan your actions today, and those actions create your future.

[RGConsultingbz @RaineldoG]

'The Battle For Consciousness Theory': A Case Study, A Treat, And A Warning
Interesting reading, mind challenging. Take it in small doses. https://t.co/4vsXFvJK4N

[RGConsultingbz @RaineldoG]

I downloaded Strategic Learning: A practical guide to strategy development and execution. Get yours https://t.co/Rp5DwS8xyV via @chriscfox

[RGConsultingbz @RaineldoG]

Sun Tzu's Quotes which are better to be known when young to not Regret in Old Age https://t.co/NSmqNRILlu

[World of Statistics @stats_feed]

Time it took to reach 100 million users worldwide:

Telephone: 75 years
Mobile phone: 16 years
World Wide Web: 7 years
iTunes: 6.5 years
Twitter: 5 years
Facebook: 4.5 years
WhatsApp: 3.5 years
Instagram: 2.5 years
Apple App Store: 2 years
ChatGPT: 2 months

[Sahil Bloom @SahilBloom]

The most powerful paradoxes of life:

1. The Failure Paradox

You have to fail more to succeed more.

Our transformative moments of growth often stem directly from our toughest moments of failure.

Don't fear failure—learn to fail smart and fast. Never fail the same way twice.

[RGConsultingbz @RaineldoG]

Cracking the Code: Strategy Demystified through the Resource-Based View by amir ghobadi https://t.co/XuOGAV7JkX

[RGConsultingbz @RaineldoG]

A major tenet of leadership. https://t.co/Wc5x8PzOpd

[Ad Professor @The_AdProfessor]

10 creative ads I've collected this week:

1. Carlsberg

[RGConsultingbz @RaineldoG]

Pairing AI With Human Judgment Is Key To Avoiding 'Mount Stupid' via @forbes https://t.co/JdUeJBkKPI

[David Senra @FoundersPodcast]

This is great writing

Claude Hopkins —for the lucky few who love their work:

"I came to love work as other men love golf. I love it still. Many a time I beg off from a bridge game, a dinner, or a dance to spend the evening in my office. I steal away from weekend parties at my country home to enjoy a few hours at my typewriter. So the love of work can be cultivated, just like the love of play. The terms are interchangeable. What others call work I call play, and vice versa. We do best what we like best. If that is chasing a polo ball, one will probably excel in that. If it means checkmating competitors, or getting a home run in something worth while, he will excel in that. So it means a great deal when a young man can come to regard his life work as the most fascinating game that he knows. And it should be. The applause of athletics dies in a moment. The applause of success gives one cheer to the grave."

[Sahil Bloom @SahilBloom]

A young statistician saved their lives.

His insight (and how it can change yours):

During World War II, the U.S. wanted to add reinforcement armor to specific areas of its planes.

Analysts examined returning bombers and plotted the bullet holes and damage on them (as in the image below).

Based on this analysis, they came to the conclusion that adding armor to the tail, body, and wings would improve their odds of survival.

But a young statistician named Abraham Wald noted that this would be a tragic mistake.

By only plotting data on the planes that returned, they were systematically omitting the data on a critical, informative subset:

The planes that were damaged and unable to return.

Abraham Wald recognized a key fact:

• "Seen" planes had sustained damage that was survivable.
• "Unseen" planes had sustained damage that was not survivable.

Wald concluded that armor should be added to the *unharmed* regions of the returning planes (the areas without bullet holes on the image below).

His profound logic:

Where the survivors were unharmed was actually where the planes were most vulnerable.

Based on his insight, the military reinforced the engine and other vulnerable parts, significantly improving the safety of the crews during combat and saving thousands of lives.

Abraham Wald had identified a cognitive bias called "Survivorship Bias":

The error resulting from systematically focusing on survivors (successes) and ignoring casualties (failures) that causes us to miss the true base rates of survival (the actual probability of success) and arrive at flawed conclusions.

We see examples of Survivorship Bias all around us:

1. We read books on the common traits of successful people, but fail to consider all of the unsuccessful people who possessed those same traits.

2. We applaud the belief when we hear that an entrepreneur took out a second mortgage and succeeded, but fail to consider all of the entrepreneurs who did the same and went bankrupt.

3. We study the cultural strategies of the most successful companies, but fail to consider all of the companies that followed those same strategies and fell apart.

When we fail to consider the range of outcomes and the hidden evidence, we develop a skewed (and often incorrect) view of reality.

It cannot be avoided altogether, because the vast majority of books and history are written by and about the survivors and victors, but wherever possible, consider the unseen evidence.

Remember: What is unseen often has just as much value as what is seen.

***

If you enjoyed this or learned something, follow me @SahilBloom for more in future!

[RGConsultingbz @RaineldoG]

@LordAshcroft Me too