Rajat Bathla

[Rajat Bathla @rajatbath]

@Macrobysunil thanks Sunil.

[Rajat Bathla @rajatbath]

@Macrobysunil so 2yrs bond yield is to watched?

[Rajat Bathla @rajatbath]

@Macrobysunil Will Inflation Super Cycle activate before Fed reacts on interest or after the printer starts printing?

[Rajat Bathla @rajatbath]

@onechancefreedm @riteshmjn is it that cracks have started appearing in front line forts?

[Rajat Bathla @rajatbath]

@anuragsingh_as The US is a democracy, India is still in the feudal age.

[Rajat Bathla @rajatbath]

@Macrobysunil @UMAMAHE05674141 Thanks Sunil.

[Rajat Bathla @rajatbath]

@Macrobysunil @UMAMAHE05674141 Physical market

[Rajat Bathla @rajatbath]

@Macrobysunil @UMAMAHE05674141 6-7% increase. That means the market has not priced in the 10% increase in taxes. Is that so?

[Rajat Bathla @rajatbath]

@Macrobysunil @UMAMAHE05674141 Sunil, Silver ETF FOF are up by 7% whereas ETF are up by 12%-15%. Both were/are co related. Why is the difference today in the pricing?

[Rajat Bathla @rajatbath]

@rajesh10sharma @sandeepbansal28 Depends on FCI's OMSS price. But as Rs depreciation is on the cards, Delhi may price 3200/- this marketing season.

[Rajat Bathla @rajatbath]

@sandeepbansal28 Minimum 20% Pan india

[Rajat Bathla @rajatbath]

@NeerajCNBC You are a lucky man with a direct hotline. My best wishes.

[Macro Liquidity by Sunil Reddy @Macrobysunil]

Why successful US-China decoupling + reshoring requires $10,000+ Gold.

It’s not gold-bug theory. It’s pure balance-of-payments physics.

For 40+ years the system worked like this:

China, Japan, Germany, oil exporters ran massive trade surpluses with America → they piled up hundreds of billions in USD every year → they recycled almost all of it straight into US Treasuries.

This created the perfect self-reinforcing loop:

• Foreign UST buying suppressed US yields
• Strong dollar + cheap financing let Americans consume far more than they produced
• Persistent $800B–$1T+ trade deficits became normal
• Manufacturing, critical supply chains, and entire towns were hollowed out (“China Shock”)

The UST-as-global-reserve system literally turned America into the world’s consumption and borrower of last resort.

Now the Trump administration’s full-stack strategy (tariffs, critical minerals policy, defense reindustrialization, stablecoins) is designed to break that loop, without killing dollar dominance.

The explicit goal (as Michael McNair laid out and @LukeGromen highlighted):

“Keep the USD as the world’s transaction rail WITHOUT agreeing to absorb unlimited foreign savings into USTs.”

Stablecoins are the key innovation here. They let dollars circulate globally for payments and trade (the part America wants to keep), but they carry no yield and create no automatic claims on US assets.

So the world keeps using dollars to transact… but those surplus dollars no longer automatically finance endless American consumption.

So where do China’s (and others’) giant annual surpluses go instead?

They can’t hold piles of plain USD (no yield, weaponizable).
They won’t hold RMB at scale.
Euros and yen can’t absorb the volume.

The only neutral, non-weaponizable, globally accepted reserve asset left at scale is physical gold.

Reshoring critical supply chains while preserving dollar payment dominance REQUIRES redirecting foreign surpluses out of USTs and into gold.

Now the math:

China’s current-account surpluses routinely run $300–900B+ per year.
Global gold mine supply is only ~$280–350B per year at current prices (~$5,200/oz).
Central banks are already buying ~1,000 tonnes/year.

Even a meaningful slice of those surpluses rotating into gold instead of Treasuries is enormous relative to the tiny gold market.

The only way the flows balance without chaos is if gold prices rise dramatically, to five figures ($10k–$15k+ per ounce).

At those levels the gold market “grows” in dollar terms: annual production value expands, above-ground stock becomes large enough to absorb hundreds of billions in new flows every year.

This is why @LukeGromen says it so cleanly: separating from China and reshoring requires five-figure gold.

Tariffs + stablecoins + critical minerals + defense capex + gold re-monetization = one coherent strategy.

The old system used USTs to make America a consumption state.
The new system uses gold to make America a production state again, while keeping the dollar’s most powerful privilege.

This is one of the biggest macro regime shifts of our lifetime.

The UST recycling machine is being deliberately turned off.

[pmbug @pmbug]

🔥The Silver Derivative Market's Doomsday Clock is 2 Minutes To Midnight 🔥

The silver derivative markets (futures, options, promissory note OTC claims) require a minimum threshold of liquid free float vault stock (actual physical silver) be available in order to function. When liquid free float inventory falls below that threshold, the markets could break down in a disorderly fashion.

We know from October 2025 that the markets seized up when the LBMA's liquid free float ran dry. The LBMA's total free float at that time was about 3,400t.

At the beginning of February (about a week ago), I estimated the upper bound for the LBMA's total free float to be around 4,600t. Thus, it likely had an upper bound in the neighborhood of 1,200t of liquid free float.

Throughout the month of January, by my estimate, the LBMA's liquid free float grew by ~809t. CME silver stock reports claim that COMEX withdrawals totaled ~2,235t across the month. I believe that the bulk of that drain was shipped to London (whether directly or indirectly via Switzerland where it might have been recast). If we accept that ~90% of the COMEX withdrawals was shipped to London, that would be ~2,000t. Subtracting free float growth in January, the LBMA would have delivered (to ETFs, domestic actors, etc) or exported (to China, India, et al) ~1,200t of silver in January.

Thus, I estimate that the LBMA currently (at least, as of a week ago or so) had roughly one month's supply of liquid free float vault stock available.

Within the last week or so, silver lease rates in London briefly spiked from less than 1% to 6.1% before coming back down a bit to 2.7% recently. The elevated lease rates are evidence that the LBMA's liquid free float vault stock is thin as they try to satisfy demand from ETFs, India, China, et al.

The LBMA needs a constant flow of silver from the COMEX in order to satisfy this demand - at least 1,200t/month in order to maintain current liquid free float vault stock levels.

Over the last five days, COMEX withdrawals have averaged ~116t/day. At 20 working days/month, that rate projects to 2,320t for February. That's a healthy flow for the LBMA and should cause lease rates to subside as demand can be satisfied.

However, the COMEX cannot sustain that pace indefinitely. I analyzed the net drain on COMEX Registered and Eligible vault stock from October through December 2025. During those 3 months, ~60% of the net drain came from the Registered stock. If we accept that as a baseline, we can estimate a run rate for COMEX Registered vault stock as follows:

3,154t Registered / 70t/day withdrawals (116t * 60% = 70t) = ~45 working days left

That's just two months and one week of inventory left. The variables in this equation (LBMA delivery demand, COMEX drain rate) may change, but at current levels/pace, the COMEX is likely to run into trouble in April. Maybe they slow down the withdrawals and last another month - two at the most. I think by June we will definitely be seeing either the LBMA, the COMEX or both experiencing delivery defaults.

[Rajat Bathla @rajatbath]

@GoldSilverHQ Earlier slam effects used to be there for a week or days... now it has reduced to hours.