alina

EM doc. Politics nerd 🇷🇴🇬🇧🇫🇷
European at core
Into military stuff nowadays, out of necessity
Also on bsky

[Jennifer Griffin @JenGriffinFNC]

This action by the US government to subpoena reporters for reporting legitimate news on security concerns about Air Force 1 should alarm every American.

“The appearance of federal law enforcement agents on the doorstep of news reporters should shock the conscience of any American who believes in the Constitution and the press freedom it protects,” said David McCraw, The Times’s top newsroom lawyer, in a statement on Friday evening.

[Frontex @Frontex]

📉 Irregular border crossings into the EU: down 37% in the first half of 2026
🔹 Just over 49 000 detections
🔹 Steepest drop: Western African route
🔹 Only increase: Western Mediterranean
Details ➡️ https://t.co/v00DykIM4M

[CSIS @CSIS]

Russia targets Ukrainian positions, logistics routes, and nearby cities that are critical for military operations on the battlefield. The most frequently damaged areas include the Donetsk region, Kharkiv, Sumy, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson.

Read: https://t.co/0T1EKFs7ND

[CSIS @CSIS]

While roughly 49% of units of munitions the DOD requested in FY 2027 cost less than $600,000 per unit, this figure increases to over 70% in FY 2031 based upon projected munitions budget requests.

Read more: https://t.co/kjgmxb4mor

[Les Jeunes en marche @Jeunesenmarche]

On continue ! 🚀🇫🇷

Rejoignez la campagne sur https://t.co/49ZSGSGIpU

[alina @ramshackle78]

I am constantly in awe of how much more combat utility per carrier France gets. This is why it certainly doesn't feel like it's only got one carrier.
So many lessons that Britain should have learned

[Laurent Lagneau @zonemilitaire]

La Marine nationale valide une nouvelle configuration du Rafale M F4 à deux bombes AASM de 1 000 kg https://t.co/SRDWdx62WZ

[alina @ramshackle78]

Look, the underlying concept is not silly. But this explanation from MoD is still in the 'trust me bro' territory and does not cut it, as UKDJ rightly points out

[UK Defence Journal @UKDefJournal]

The MOD says crewed and uncrewed ships together bring more missiles and mass, while the exquisite Type 83 would have meant too few ships for the Navy's tasks. Click image for more.
https://t.co/8AkdX24AjI

[alina @ramshackle78]

Please don't put in the newspaper this is a forever war.

[Michael Weiss @michaeldweiss]

If you want to know where things stand with the MOU and U.S.-Iranian "ceasefire," have I got a special Saturday afternoon treat for you. Below are excerpts of what J.D. Vance told a group of reporters in a background call yesterday at around 3 o'clock in the afternoon. I wasn't on the call but someone kindly sent me a transcript.

As you know, the MOU isn't looking so hot right now. Iran keeps opening fire on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and the CENTCOM spent two nights this week retaliating, striking at least 170 Iranian targets, including "air defense systems, coastal surveillance assets, missile and drone storage sites, naval capabilities, and military logistics infrastructure along Iran’s coastline."

Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner were also on the call yesterday, but Vance, rumored to be the "fall guy" if this tenuous deal collapses, led the conversation. He did it so well that at one point Witkoff professed he had "nothing to add" to a "perfect articulation of where we are today."

When asked if perhaps Iran didn't interpret the MOU to mean that Iran was in control of the Strait of Hormuz, the Vice President said: "What happened is they were caught off guard after they signed the MOU by how rapidly traffic was moving, and especially how much traffic was moving through the southern lane of the Strait of Hormuz. So in reality, and we saw this again with many of the pragmatic people within their system, they recognized that our interpretation was not just reasonable, but it was the only plausible interpretation. That some of the hardliners, and you can even see this in some of the social media posts, started to attack [Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas] Araghchi and [Speaker of Iranian Parliament Mohammad] Ghalibaf for making a bad deal. This is not an interpretive difference. What it is is that certain elements within Iran decided, 'Oh wait, we gave up leverage that we didn't want to give up.' They decided to renege on the deal. So I think it's very important to characterize this accurately, and it's not a reinterpretation of the MOU. They they were reneging on the deal because they felt caught off guard by how quickly oil and gas was moving through the southern channel."

Paragraph 5 of the agreement states: "Upon the signing of this MOU, the Islamic Republic of Iran will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels, with no charge for 60 days only, from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman, and vice versa. The traffic of commercial vessels will immediately start, and considering the need for removing the technical and military obstacles, and de-mining by the Islamic Republic of Iran, will be instated within 30 days."

Most read this as implicit confirmation that Tehran did indeed control the Strait; otherwise, why would the Iranians have to make arrangements for the safe passage of commercial vessels and why would they have to de-mine a waterway they had no custody over?

Vance now says that's not how to read paragraph 5 at all. Rather, the U.S. is simply a victim of its own naval success. By opening the Strait, the "pragmatic" Iranians acknowledged their loss of leverage but the hardline radicals felt bamboozled and started firing at commercial ships and, well, here we are now!

Vance is very disappointed in the Iranians, maybe even in the cool new super-friends he's made in the IRGC. "The simple deal was," he said, "we lift the blockade, and the Iranians stop shooting at ships, and that's the easiest but the most important end of the bargain for the Iranians to keep. And so far, I would give them an F on, or at least a D minus, on keeping their end of the bargain."

(Earlier in the call, Kushner said: "Iran is showing a lot of signs of wanting to make this deal.")

But what if it all falls apart? Not to worry, Vance assured reporters, "it's not a forever war if the Iranians violate the terms of the agreement and shoot commercial shipping, and and we respond to it."

They can shoot, we can shoot, and this can go on indefinitely -- but no forever war. Got that? Please don't put in the newspaper this is a forever war.

What else did J.D. Vance say yesterday?

Remember the Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU), or "nuclear dust" (it's not dust), to which Trump often alludes? Removing or destroying HEU was one of the objectives of Operation Epic Fury. Except Trump suggested weeks ago -- round about the time said it'd be very unfair to leave Iran without an arsenal of ballistic missiles (even though doing so was another stated objective of the war) -- that he might not even bother trying to remove the HEU from Iran at all, as the stuff was not very "valuable."

Vance now hints at leaving the HEU right where it is; the U.S. might just entomb it: "You know, look, either they're going to give us the nuclear dust, or we have very low-cost military options to ensure that it remains buried underground forever." (The reporter who asked about this noted that the U.S. might have just used such a low-cost military option earlier in the campaign but didn't because it expected to exfiltrate the HEU somehow.)

Vance was also queried about reported Israeli intelligence suggesting that the Iranians are still plotting to assassinate Trump. "On on the question of what Israeli intelligence about assassination slots and so forth," he responded, "I've seen the same public reporting that you guys have seen. I'm not going to comment on, you know, private conversations that have been had between you know leaders in our government and leaders in their government. What I will say with great confidence is Donald Trump is not a person who makes decisions based on fear or based on threats to his personal safety."

With great confidence, he says that.

Donald Trump posted to TruthSocial last night, about eight hours after this background briefing, about what happens in the event Iran assassinates him or tries to assassinate him: "1000 Missiles are Locked and Loaded and aimed at the Islamic Republic of Iran, with thousands of more to immediately follow, should the Iranian Government act on its threat, pronounced in many corners of the Globe, to assassinate, or attempt to assassinate, the sitting President of the United States of America, in this case, ME!"

We are therefore invited to believe that J.D. Vance, who would succeed Donald Trump as president of the United States in the event of Trump's assassination by the Iranian government, is prepared to fire these thousand missiles at Iran. But not in a forever war kind of way, mind you.

[Aymeric Pontier @aympontier]

L’industrie navale française continue de grandir grandir grandir : après une nouvelle croissance +9% en 2025, son chiffre d'affaires atteint 17 milliards d'€ - soit un doublement en 15 ans - dont la moitié à l'export.
https://t.co/nRRklCAfXQ

[Chris Combs (iterative design enjoyer) @DrChrisCombs]

It's the Japanese Starhopper!! 😍

[Geoff Ramsey @GRamsey_LatAm]

I don’t think anyone had “Marco Rubio and Delcy Rodriguez exchanging messages in Spanish on WhatsApp, trading gossip, birthday greetings and selfies” on their 2026 bingo card. https://t.co/sI6p1v4ol0

[Gabriel Attal Actu @GAttalActu]

🇫🇷✅ Il sillonne la France pour vous rencontrer, vous écouter et vous convaincre qu'un chemin d'espoir est possible.

— Au contact des Français, @GabrielAttal parle projet et rassemble : en dynamique, le candidat engrange +2 points dans les intentions de vote !

© Sondage Elabe

[Michael Weiss @michaeldweiss]

Col. Ants Kiviselg, the head of Estonian military intelligence: "We still see no military preparations from Russia to carry out an operation in the Baltics or this region in the near future."
I would rate this assessment, coming from this source, more highly than any online chatter. The Estonians take U.S. intelligence extremely seriously (they were outliers in Europe in believing CIA/MI6 about the inevitability of a Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine), and so if they are saying this, it means they've done their due diligence. https://t.co/qNL8jLTHFD

[Tom Antonov @Tom_Antonov]

9 new French Naval Aviation pilots officially qualified on Rafale M.
Unofficially qualified in mustache excellence.
🇫🇷⚓️

[Jan Rosenow @janrosenow]

1/ Irony number one: Many of the people now cheering me on spent years insisting heat pumps don't work.

Air conditioners ARE heat pumps. Same refrigeration cycle, same physics, running in reverse. Most modern units do both.

If AC works (it does), heat pumps work (they do).

[alina @ramshackle78]

@sandumaiamd @Vasile_Tofan Ar fi bine daca domnul Tofan n-ar mai vorbi de Milei. Nu cred ca intelege cine e Milei. Altfel totul bine

[aktual24.ro @ak24ro]

Datele economice oficiale arată o mare surpriză. Fără PSD la guvernare, economia se ”regenereaza”, a fost ”eliberată din chingile populismului”. Directorul INSCOP: ”Trei efecte neașteptate ale crizei politice”
https://t.co/veFhvOxdQL

[alina @ramshackle78]

@gregbagwell I would also mentioned the gaps in training/training pipeline which will remain

[alina @ramshackle78]

We had and are going through a coup in Britain and everybody treats it as if this is normal

[Steven Swinford @Steven_Swinford]

Times weekend read:

* Andy Burnham may be at his most powerful - no Cabinet positions announced, 'North Korean' levels of support among Labour MPs - but there are already tensions and jockeying for position among his most loyal allies

* Such is the speed of coronation that Burnham has yet to decide on his living arrangements. His wife, Marie-France Van Heel, is considering staying in Manchester so she can continue her role as a marketing executive, with the couple reuniting over long weekends. One ally jokingly said Burnham could end up living a 'bachelor' lifestyle above No 11

* Burnham's allies still don't know their fates. Even Ed Miliband, who is likely to be Chancellor, is in the dark. Burnham's plan is simple - set out his agenda first then retrofit Cabinet ministers at the end of the process

* A row has broken out over who is in charge of drawing up plans for major policies. Miattah Fahnbulleh, who hails from the soft-left of the party, has been pulling together ideas. But so too has Josh Simnos, the former MP for Makerfield who quit to make way for Burnham

* Their ideas were synthesised into a single document, leading to tensions. “The soft left don’t trust Josh and the feeling is mutual,” said one Labour source. “The two are operating independently of one another.”

* Fahnbulleh told The Times that she and Simons had worked well together. “I have now done my bit in terms of ideas generation and that has now been handed over to Andy and the senior No 10 team to consider as part of their programme of government.”

* A friend of Simons said: “Josh has great respect for Miatta and he’s enjoyed working closely together — it doesn’t have to be factional warfare.”

* Then there are tensions between Burnham’s old Manchester “gang” and his new Westminster team, with accusations of snobbery

* Starmer loyalists were angered by Lou Haigh's admission that Burnham has been preparing for office for as long as a year. There is still a lot of bad blood

https://t.co/waeAvbHOQb

[アルノ @ArnoTaoTensor]

Voir Jean-Luc Mélenchon et la gauche insoumise se pavaner à Avignon en hurlant que « le budget de la culture n'est pas assez élevé » est la plus belle performance théâtrale de l'été.

Ayant bossé 15 ans comme ingénieur du son sur ces plateaux, je connais l'envers du décor. Et vous n'êtes pas prêts.

Avignon, ce sont deux mondes étanches : le ON et le OFF.

Le ON, c'est l'aristocratie d'État. Des compagnies invitées, payées par l'impôt pour venir. Qu'elles soient géniales ou ringardes, leur budget est garanti par le ministère de la Culture. Zéro risque financier.

Le OFF, c'est le capitalisme le plus sauvage déguisé en fête populaire.

Pour les propriétaires de théâtres privés locaux, c’est le jackpot absolu. Ils font leur chiffre d'affaires annuel en 3 semaines. Une salle se loue entre 5 000 et 15 000 € le créneau d'une heure trente pour le mois. Les bailleurs y font défiler jusqu'à 10 spectacles différents par jour. Les compagnies ont exactement 15 minutes pour monter leur décor et 15 minutes pour tout démonter sous 40 degrés.

Des centaines de petites compagnies indépendantes s’endettent à hauteur de 20 000 ou 30 000 € pour s’offrir ce créneau d'une heure. Elles croient au mérite. Elles espèrent se faire remarquer par un « programmateur » de théâtre public pour décrocher une tournée.

Sauf que les dés sont pipés depuis le départ.

La majorité des directeurs artistiques des scènes subventionnées ont déjà bouclé leur programmation bien avant d'avoir posé le pied en gare TGV. Le reste se joue au copinage pur : l'ami de l'ami de l'ami. On s'échange et on se refile des artistes entre structures amies pour justifier les subventions croisées.

Pendant que les comédiens se ruinent et jouent devant des salles vides, ces directeurs s'offrent trois semaines de vacances dorées sous le soleil du Midi. Tout est pris en charge par le budget de fonctionnement de leurs théâtres municipaux ou nationaux : trains, restos, et Airbnb surévalués passés en notes de frais.

Le système vit de l'exploitation pure : des techniciens payés au lance-pierre et des artistes précarisés, tous maintenus sous perfusion grâce au régime de l'intermittence, lui-même financé par les cotisations des actifs du secteur privé.

Rajouter du budget public, comme le réclame LFI, ne sauvera aucun artiste indépendant. Cela financera simplement des bouteilles de rosé supplémentaires pour cette aristocratie de fonctionnaires de la culture qui s'auto-congratule sur votre dos.

Allez-vous continuer à croire que la culture d'État défend la création, ou allez-vous enfin ouvrir les yeux sur ce cartel de rentiers ?