built a stock research copilot that assigns conviction tiers to positions and then revisits them on 30/60/180 day cycles with forced invalidation checks. every position needs falsifiable criteria with specific dates. no vibes allowed. just data
every founder should have a system that forces them to argue against their own assumptions at least once a week. if your thesis can't survive your own counterarguments it definitely won't survive a vc partner meeting
japan is what happens when a culture optimizes for craft over speed for 1000 years. every meal, every train, every interaction is engineered. silicon valley could learn a lot from this place if it stopped long enough to pay attention
something i have been thinking about: the best deals i have ever seen were companies solving problems so boring that nobody wanted to compete with them. boring is the moat
if you are a founder and your pitch deck has the words "ai-powered" on the cover slide just know that every single investor who sees it has seen that phrase 47 times this week
@etnshow@avipat_@useKled VCs are about to get a real edge. With proper data, they’ll stop funding founders who don’t deserve it. the ones who were just larping through their pitches.
That’s exactly why I built this tool: so they can look into everything before writing the check.
microsoft just said they will be capacity constrained on GPUs through 2026. they are
buying 3,200 acres in wyoming just for data centers. an industrial supercycle disguised as a tech narrative imo
We haven’t even seen proper melt up yet
90% of ai startups raising right now are going to die not because the tech doesn't work but because the founders have no idea who they are selling to. the best ai companies i have seen aren't even calling themselves ai companies
the craziest thing about building with ai right now is how fast the feedback loop is. i went from idea to working prototype in 4 hours yesterday. 4 hours. two years ago that would've been two weeks and three contractors
anytime a16z breaks down legislation this thoroughly you stop and read it
the CLARITY Act just passed Senate Banking Committee on a bipartisan vote
for a decade the US had no real crypto regulation. agencies just sued people and called it oversight. that did not stop bad actors. it stopped the good ones. builders moved offshore. consumers got less protection not more
the core insight in their piece: blockchains are networks not companies. existing law was built for companies where someone is always in control. forcing that structure onto blockchain projects is what created the mess
we already saw what happens when crypto gets real regulation. GENIUS Act passed July 2025 and stablecoin adoption exploded overnight
CLARITY is that same unlock for the entire market structure
the window where no other country has gotten this right is still open. not for long
the permanent underclass take is lazy futurism
you cant say AGI rewrites one domain and then freeze everything else at 2025. that is not how system shocks work.
if it is real enough to destroy jobs it is real enough to destroy the cost of housing food education and healthcare too
the slice of futures where only the bad stuff propagates is very small
@pmarca both things are true and thats the point.
institutions hollowed out and attention fragmented at the same time. you dont get to pick one villain.
the smartphone didnt cause the collapse. it just made it impossible to hide
built an ai operator for my healthtech company last month. it now does 80% of what our ops person used to do. not replacing anyone. she's now doing strategic work instead of admin. that's the real ai story nobody talks about
I spent the past few days in Washington with @hyperliquidpc meeting with policymakers during the historic advancement of the Clarity Act. We discussed Hyperliquid, the benefits that it offers to American consumers, and the regulatory path to bring onchain derivatives markets into the United States.
Some conversations were technical with an impressive baseline understanding of Hyperliquid. Discussions included how onchain trading is a financial innovation that has clear global user demand. Other conversations focused more on a first principles introduction to defi and the promise of onchain markets. It was encouraging to see bipartisan support for thoughtful regulation of crypto. I look forward to continuing discussions in DC and working hard to make American access to Hyperliquid a reality.
@OpenAI everyone's debating whether ai will take jobs. meanwhile i literally built one that runs half my company's operations and the team is more productive than ever. the take should be: ai doesn't replace people. it replaces the worst parts of people's days