$BTC.D Update
We are topping out, no higher than 65%
Now before you go all in on every single altcoin, keep in mind that a sweep more or less is possible IMO. And also keep in mind that not every single altcoin goes up with $BTC.D dropping.
As our thesis goes and what we have been correct on with our read: mostly utility altcoins do. This is part of our bull market masterplan with a high coherence to the 2017 cycle, but with institutions involved. And there is far less coherence to the 2021 cycle to which for some reason there is (way too much) comparison out there.
So as mentioned, a sweep is possible and a single long wick has tendencies to get at least partially taken out very often, although in compound charts, less likely (such as $BTC.D).
And this final (IMO) push to 65% is still acceptably close to the 0.618 area, and month 37 is now counting. We are also in the monthly breaker POI we laid out and we have the local pattern of setting a high (at 62% in Nov).
Last update, from the bottom, we projected a top between month 33-37, and we are now at the tail end of that move.
Overall, this reversal has been stubborn, and we had to express a lot of patience for it. I have tried to call the top before when we first went above 60%, and only managed to get a drop from 62% to 55%. But the most lucrative moves are the hardest to call out and that is especially true if me move anything like the 2017 cycle, so I accept this $BTC.D reversal's stubbornness.
Comparing the times and sentiment at the exact times of $BTC.D hitting 65% is helpful too and there it's also hard to say we could top that fear.
It was during times where people called crypto ruined by the president of the United states, whilst $BTC was still above 90k and we had record 2025 liquidations. From my side, I wrote out an emergency tweet for the first time I ever tweet to call out live without any analysis to buy big on utility alts such as $AVAX, $ADA, $ETH, $DOGE, etc. and those positions have all bounced back quick.
I think it's hard to imagine alts to be crushed any further. Yes, the 'news' or 'countries might be ruining altcoins' plays its effect. But markets are forward pricing in nature so the effect of that news is the reason why we peak in altcoin fear (and $BTC.D) and will never help you predict where things will move. And due to the cyclical nature of the markets, it's usually the opposite way that the news is telling you. Which is why news is so good at fooling everything.
'Use the charts to predict the news' We say.
The charts tell different, quality alts have put in their first leg, and are ready for their second, paired with a $BTC.D drop in the next months IMO.
So here you go, my high timeframe thoughts, as this indeed is a high timeframe analysis. Intended to base your investments and positional trades on (NFA), not your intraday and swing trades.
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Each of us is working hard for something. Even if we work hard, sometimes we may not be able to do it. However, as long as we have faith, joy will always accompany you.
What is failure? Nothing, just one step closer to success; what is success? It is to walk through all the roads leading to failure, and only one road is left, that is the road to success.
What do I think about TRUMP COIN?
Not much.
Unfortunately, the whole crypto world is becoming a “tranny” transformimg from the “future” to a “farce.”
I hold my course buying real
Gold, real silver, and real Bitcoin.
As a personal rule I do not invest in any ETFs.
I am old and I prefer “real.”
What does $BTC do around inaugurations? 🤔
In this chart, I've plotted the oscillation of BTC around the power law trend around inaugurations. 📉📈
On average, we see a sight dip after inauguration before a rally until just before US Tax Day (15 April). 💰
But this time, the dip after the last inauguration may not happen, depending on the announcements on Day 1 (e.g. Strategic Bitcoin/$TRUMP Reserve). ⚡
These are definitely interesting times! Grab the popcorn. 🍿🔥
The most common courage is to be honest and upright in daily life, to be able to resist temptation, to dare to tell the truth, to show your true side, and not to be hypocritical.
No matter what the trend of the times and the social atmosphere are, people can always rely on their noble character to transcend the times and society and take their own correct path.
WHAT a TRAGEDY: I cannot imagine my home burning down. More than the house are the memories each home protected. Homes can be rebuilt… but memories are priceless.
Count your blessings if you have a roof over your head and a bed to keep you warm.
Please say a prayer for those who are not as fortunate as you tonight.
Take care.
I just put together the numbers from every credible study over the last 16 years and ran a line through it.
If you understand this curve and the size of the addressable market you'll know why BTC outperforms every asset class on the planet.