As the onshore oil inventory draws get momentum, more and more people from the energy world will scream at the top of their lungs.
The problem is that even if the Strait had reopened in mid-April, the June low storage scenario would still play out because of the logistical timing issues.
Now that we are here, we are barreling towards tank bottoms.
It is what it is.
The Strait of Hormuz has been closed for 8 days. Everyone thinks this is about oil. This is about what oil becomes. 92% of the world's sulfur comes from refining oil and gas. Close the Strait of Hormuz and you don't just lose 20 million barrels of crude per day. You lose the feedstock for sulfuric acid, the single most produced chemical on Earth. Sulfuric acid is how we extract copper. It's how we extract cobalt. Without it, you can't make transformers, EV batteries, or the substrates inside every data center on the planet. One chemical, made from one feedstock, shipped through one chokepoint. The cascade goes further: Qatar ships 30% of Taiwan's liquefied natural gas through Hormuz. Taiwan has 11 days of reserves left. TSMC, the company that makes 90% of the world's advanced chips, draws 8.9% of Taiwan's total electricity. No gas, no power, no chips. Then food. 33% of the world's nitrogen fertilizer feedstock moves through the Strait. Half of all humans alive today exist because of synthetic nitrogen. Sulfur, semiconductors, food. That makes three supply chains, one 21-nautical-mile chokepoint, and zero domestic alternatives at scale.
@OilandEnergy They are like sitting ducks compared with energy facilities within Russia. More logical and cost effective for drones to target. This will drive shipping and insurance costs up.
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@Rory_Johnston@JavierBlas Won't prices get cheaper if they eventually unload and increase export quotas? Coupled with continuous Russian crude exports?