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[Brett Appley @BrettAppley]

Let's do it #UFCVegas115 Fight Thoughts:

1⃣Moicano/Duncan - Expect Moicano to fight competitive early. He's a skilled distance striker and great back taker. Has a legit path to an early RNC. I worry that once he starts taking damage on the feet, Duncan won't let him recover. So I kind of expect Moicano to start well and Duncan to take over at some point and find a TKO. But Duncan doesn't separate enough on the numbers for me to feel extremely confident.

2⃣Jandiroba/Ricci - Love Jandiroba's top game but I much prefer to target her against bad grapplers, which Ricci is not. Still a viable path for Jandi but mostly expect these two to neutralize each other, where Ricci could feasibly win striking exchanges and the decision.

3⃣Yakhyaev/Ribeiro - Yakh had some concerning grappling sequences on the regionals that scare me, but doubt it matters. Still a high-variance fight if he wants to go life or death with Ribeiro, but Ribeiro has died so many times that it's impossible to pick against Yakh early finish.

4⃣Ewing/Estevam - Binary fight. Ewing is a good boxer and I favor his cardio. Estevam is a solid wrestler but too control based for me to be confident here. Lean Ewing late but expect Estevam to have some takedown success early.

5⃣McMillen/Zecchini - Jury still out on McMillen but he's a willing fighter and tough. Decent grappler. Zecchini has mild striking path but isn't athletic and doesn't offer much. Guessing McMillen subs him but could be TKO/early/late.

6⃣Delano/Ruchala - Delano is a decent prospect but think he has capped upside. Expect him to be the more dangerous pocket fighter here and produce more offense. Ruchala fine at kicking range, and he can clinch/grapple a bit but just isn't that dangerous, and has questionable defense. At least he's tough. Picking Delano to outstrike him or maybe TKO him.

7⃣Pat/Petersen - Another binary fight. Pat far more effective at distance. Petersen far more effective wrestler. I hate Pat's urgency but there's so much variance in striking. No strong opinion. Probably lean Pat early and Petersen late.

8⃣Costa/Nicoll - I thought Nicoll was a solid grappler coming into the UFC but he's looked awful. Still think he has a grappling shot but dependent on him having cardio. Costa super inconsistent but if he's facing a tired Nicoll he probably just picks at him for a dec or mid-round stoppage.

9⃣Vannata/Flowers - Thought Vannata had retired. Wished Flowers had retired. No clue Vannata's form but he's a better round winner. Flowers live for some early athletic/power moments but hard to see him winning rounds cleanly otherwise.

🔟Pereira/Cowan - Super low level fight. Pereira prob better pure technical striker. Cowan more physical, better in clinch and on the mat. Think Cowan is a little sneaky for DFS but who knows really. Could be ugly/competitive.

1⃣1⃣Bekoev/Gore - Gore just too moments based to ever be confident. I'm not completely sold on Bekoev though. Think he has multiple paths here but if he can't get wrestling going, I'm not extremely confident he wins cleanly. Gore fine for a DFS upside punt but Bekoev better fighter overall.

1⃣2⃣Barbosa/Gatto - Have gone back and forth on this one all week. I think Barbosa is the better grappler and better athlete. Think she can have success early. Gatto pretty live to win striking rounds. Gatto also better cardio on paper. Guessing it's competitive.

1⃣3⃣Kamaka/Hope - Somewhat binary in that Kamaka is far more experienced striker with better volume. He gives up takedowns though, and Hope is a pretty physical wrestler. Think Hope takes him down early but he's not a consistent striker and wouldn't be surprised if Kamaka just takes over and wins the latter half cleanly. Lean Kamaka overall for experience but Hope very live.

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