Rani G

[Rani G @ranig]

There is only ONE metric that counts. Miles without injury/airbag deployment.
That number is the leading indicator for Tesla growth for the next 3+ years.
We’re at 3m. Once Tesla reaches 6.8m with <1 incident it is 10x safer than human driver. The bigger the number is, the faster Tesla can deploy.

It’s not about a version, a feature, navigation, hours of operations, speed of operations. It’s only one metric.

The higher it gets, the stronger the indicator for future growth.

No Wall Street investors are tracking it. Few if any “influencers” are emphasizing this. They’re all tracking late indicators instead of the only true leading indicator

[Rani G @ranig]

Tesla (and us) should aspire to maximize miles driven by FSD (% wise) because it increases safety for EVERYONE.
If anything, Tesla can price FSD like insurance, where the price is set by total miles driven, not by FSD miles driven. This will incentivize people who don’t drive much (eg retired, mostly city driving) to buy FSD and maximize use of it.

However, given FSD subscription % is growing rapidly, I don’t see a business reason for Tesla to reduce the price.

After all, especially for those coming from ICE vehicles the price of FSD is well below the savings from switching from buying fuel (usually way more than $3/day even for those who don’t drive much).

[Rani G @ranig]

Pay per use or pay by mile is a HORRIBLE idea. It incentivizes people to use FSD less. Tesla (and community) should incentivize people to use FSD 100% (or close to it) since it literally saves lives.
If Tesla does want to offer lower pricing to those who drive less they can do pricing like insurance companies - based on total miles driven, so if one drives 500 miles a month (eg retired, city driving), they can offer a lower cost plan for that audience.

[Rani G @ranig]

@KRoelandschap When ICE turns into CE

[Rani G @ranig]

@munster_gene @JoeTegtmeyer @elonmusk @bscholl @boomsupersonic Boom said they’ll be able to produce 2GW/year in the next 2-3 years. Elon needs 20GW in 2027. Seems like Elon is aware of Boom but that is not sufficient for SpaceX plans.

[Rani G @ranig]

@wholemars He needs to beat the 3m miles done by unsupervised robotaxis 😂

[Rani G @ranig]

@wholemars Robotaxi Unsupervised FSD will be 10x better than humans once it hits 6.8m miles. With current robotaxi growth and launch in Dallas, and assuming no incident, that can be achieved by the end of the year if not sooner.

[Rani G @ranig]

The benchmark is not the version or a feature. It's the miles.
They already reaches 3m miles without injuries or airbag deployment. Every million miles makes a HUGE difference. That's the true benchmark. That's what will ensure regulatory approvals.
To be 10x better than human drivers they need <1 incident in 6.8m miles (or 10.5m miles with <1 airbag deployment)
To be 10x better they need <1 incident in 68m miles (or 150m with <1 airbag deployment)

At 10x it's already VERY significant milestone and I believe they'll get there soon as the fleet grows rapidly (and hopefully without incidents).

Once they reach 100x it's a game changer. Literally. I won't be surprised if they manage to pull it off with v15.

Even if navigation is not perfect in v15 - they can improve data to overcome school zones and other imperfections - especially given it's geofenced. Better navigation is a nice to have for robotaxi - it's not a requirement. It can be fixed in data layer if it becomes an issue.

[Rani G @ranig]

No, because they’re planning to launch more starships that Falcon 9 and would be able to launch more payload (multiple satellites) per launch. The cost is per payload. Starship launches about 5x the volume and 5x the mass of Falcon 9, so cost is half and payload is 5x, so revenue is significantly greater.
The fast that cost to SpaceX is 1/2 (and possibly 1/10 within 5-10 years) doesn’t mean they need to transfer all the savings to the customer. Falcon 9 is already the cheapest launch provider. They can keep the same price (ie at least same revenue) and significantly increase margin.

[Rani G @ranig]

@flyaisleseat @audrey_decker9 They’ll likely winding down falcon 9 in 2028. By then they’ll have starship variants that support larger satellites. These are concepts.

[Rani G @ranig]

@wholemars They would still need less than 1/10th of the sites because all the huge swaths of land that other carriers need to fill in with cell towers, spacex can cover from space. They also won’t need fiber backhaul to run to the towers because they can backhaul using starlink

[Rani G @ranig]

Tesla Interceptor 😂
Original: https://t.co/ISy12E351t

[US Attorney L.A. @USAO_LosAngeles]

L.A. health care fraud takedown results in 15 defendants charged, including six medical professionals, with $2 billion in losses alleged https://t.co/CEA328r9s1

[Rani G @ranig]

@wholemars I wonder what would happen with FSD if Tesla had access to 1-2GW of compute for a few months... maybe after the merger 🤔

[Steve Hilton @SteveHiltonx]

🚨 Feds bust $2 billion medical fraud ring in L.A.

Tip of the iceberg. When I'm governor we won't need the feds to bust the fraud because I will do it. THIS is how I'll fund my tax plan: your first $150k tax free.

Becerra? He ENABLED the fraud as HHS Secretary!

VOTE!!

[Rani G @ranig]

I bet they'll start opening it up initially where Robotaxi is geofenced which will likely include multiple major cities and corridors between them.
Assuming CA/NV regulations permit, think SF<->LA, LA<->Vegas, SF<->Reno, LA<->San Diego - these are areas in which MILLIONS of people will be able to operate in L4.

[Rani G @ranig]

Who said no other factories? Also, they have room to expand in Berlin, Austin and Shanghai. It's also very likely that M3/Y sales would grow with FSD esp if they for L4/5 with customer cars in the next couple of years (even if only where Robotaxi L4 is operational).
It takes Tesla ~1-2 years to build a new factory. They have year+ to start one to be able to get to 5m run rate by 2030.

[Rani G @ranig]

It's the same as landing rockets. Everyone said it's impossible, then when it was possible they said it's not repeatable or that it wasn't commercially viable. It took 10 years (!!!) for anyone else to accomplish an orbital reusable FIRST stage - just as SpaceX is about to solve FULLY reusable rockets and leave EVERYONE in the dust (literally) again.
People said FSD will never be L2, will never be L4. Now it's L4 and everyone is saying it's easy. I doubt ANYONE will be able to match v14 or v15 in the next 5 years and once they do, Tesla will already have L5 for ALL thier vehicles on all roads and conditions.

[Rani G @ranig]

@RealJimChanos @munster_gene Tesla Robotaxi is offically L4, has done over 3m miles with no injuries and is just ramping up.

[Rani G @ranig]

@wholemars Pretty sure apps will get revamped within a month or so