rob thomas

Healthcare leader. Welsh. Interested in better healthcare, AI, economics, politics and the awkward gap between policy and reality. Probably a Liberal (in UK)

[rob thomas @rapthomas35]

A slightly different Welsh independence thread from me.

I’m genuinely open-minded on independence. I’ve read many of the arguments put forward by the nationalist community and, so far, I haven’t found the economic case particularly convincing. I do, however, completely understand and respect the emotional and cultural case.

So I decided to try something different.

Rather than arguing against independence, I asked myself:

Could I build the strongest possible case FOR it?

Not slogans. Not history. Not “Westminster bad”.

A serious, economically credible case that could persuade someone like me.

Think of it as an academic exercise in challenging my own assumptions and staying true to something I value enormously: follow the evidence, even when it takes you somewhere unexpected.

And bugger me, it started revealing some genuinely interesting possibilities.

So this is simply my journey down that rabbit hole.

🧵 1/

[rob thomas @rapthomas35]

@aledgwynj Here goes
Dwi dym gwybod llawer o gymraeg ond dwi'n dechrau dysgu unwaith eto
Sorry my Welsh is bad but I'm trying ...I'll have more time next year to goo deep
Ymlaen!!!

[rob thomas @rapthomas35]

@aledgwynj Tbh aled the more I read about this guy the more I like him. Amazing his presence has stayed with us down the centuries. Respect to Owain fawr

[rob thomas @rapthomas35]

This really troubles me, and not because it is Reform versus Plaid Cymru.
Bridgend is my own constituency. I know a number of people who voted Reform in May. They quite deliberately did not vote Plaid Cymru. Whether I agree with their choice is completely irrelevant. It was their democratic choice and it deserves to be respected.
And that is precisely why Wales’ new closed-list system creates such a serious problem here.
Those voters did not elect Sarah Cooper-Lesadd personally. They cast their vote for Reform and its list. The electoral system explicitly works that way.
Yet only months later, an MS elected through those Reform votes can cross to Plaid Cymru and take the seat with her.
Stranger still, if she resigned tomorrow, the rules say the seat would revert to the next eligible candidate on the original Reform list.
Think about the contradiction in that.
The system effectively says the mandate belongs to the party when a vacancy occurs, but allows an individual MS to transfer that same mandate to a completely different party while remaining in office.
This may be entirely within the rules. That does not remove the serious ethical and democratic question.
Plaid Cymru has accepted the defection. I would genuinely like its leadership to explain to those Bridgend voters how this respects the choice they actually made at the ballot box.

And, much more importantly, I think the Senedd now needs to examine this loophole urgently. Whatever rule we adopt must work both ways. I would take exactly the same view if a Plaid MS elected on a closed list crossed to Reform.
This is bigger than either party. It is about whether voters can trust that the vote they cast produces the representation they intended.

[rob thomas @rapthomas35]

This looks tremendous.

The more I've read about Glyndŵr, the more interesting he becomes. Strip away 600 years of mythology and there was a remarkably ambitious political vision underneath it: parliament, universities, law, diplomacy and a belief that Wales could govern itself.

Whatever your politics today, that's a fascinating piece of Welsh history worth knowing properly.

[rob thomas @rapthomas35]

This is where we need to be careful with the statistics.

Welsh Government data showed casualties on 20/30mph roads in Q3 2025 were 33% lower than the equivalent quarter before the change.

That doesn't prove 20mph caused the fall.

But equally, an increase in headline road deaths doesn't prove 20mph failed.

I'd rather see a proper multi-year evaluation than politicians on either side cherry-picking whichever number suits them.

[rob thomas @rapthomas35]

Whatever your politics, Wales needs serious opposition and serious government.

The bigger question for Reform now isn't personalities, it's policy.

What exactly is the economic plan for Wales? NHS? Education? Productivity? Investment?

If you want to govern, slogans eventually have to become a credible programme.

[rob thomas @rapthomas35]

Both camps are overclaiming here.

XRP has a 2023 district court ruling that the token itself isn't a security. Helpful, but one judge in New York is not national precedent.

Bitcoin is treated as a commodity by the CFTC and the courts have backed that. But there's no statute saying so.

The bill that would have settled it in law failed in the Senate yesterday, 49 to 50.

So as it stands, nobody has full legal clarity. That's the fact, Jack.

[rob thomas @rapthomas35]

Fascinating reading more about Owain Glyndŵr today. More than 600 years ago, yet that instinct to stand up for your community, your country and what you believe in still resonates.

Whatever your politics today, that sense of pride, identity and determination travels remarkably well across the centuries.

Happy Owain Glyndŵr Day.

[rob thomas @rapthomas35]

@digitalassetbuy Not true mate

[rob thomas @rapthomas35]

@LupineLives Morgannwg needs to be reformed and declare UDI from Wales

[rob thomas @rapthomas35]

@LSRPlaid Liz, fair criticism. But I’d like to hear more about what you’d build. More powers to do what? How will you grow the economy, improve education and fix the NHS? Give us a credible, positive vision and I’m listening. Knocking the opposition only gets us so far.

[rob thomas @rapthomas35]

Fair play, you’ve had a proper go at defending it and no hard feelings at all. You simply haven’t persuaded me that Wales is technically a colony.
Same with independence. I’ve no philosophical objection whatsoever. Show me a compelling evidence-based case that Wales will be more prosperous, our NHS will improve, waiting lists will fall and education will get better, with the major risks properly mitigated, and I’m in.
I’m genuinely persuadable. But “because nationhood” isn’t enough for me. Outcomes matter. And, frankly, our experience of devolution so far, particularly education, gives me good reason to ask some fairly awkward questions.

[rob thomas @rapthomas35]

@iScotNews @WillHayCardiff I'm not talking about the Irish am I
I'm talking about Wales
Connected
Integrated
And pretty easy going most of us
We ain't colonised technically culturally or in plain reality

[rob thomas @rapthomas35]

@iScotNews @WillHayCardiff Bristol is across the Severn and many work there
They may talk funny but they ain't a different species lol

[rob thomas @rapthomas35]

Wow this is getting groovy looking at the regs

That’s not quite the UN test though. You’re jumping straight to the “integration” provisions of Resolution 1541 while missing Principle IV. The prima facie colonial test starts with a territory being geographically separate from the administering country, as well as ethnically/culturally distinct. Wales plainly isn’t.
Nor does Britain simply get to decide who is on the UN list. The UN has re-listed territories against an administering power’s wishes.
I’m perfectly happy to debate whether the Union works for Wales. But “Wales is a colony” is a political interpretation, not its status in international law. And I see precious little evidence that the vast majority of Welsh people regard themselves as a colonised people either.
That distinction matters.

[rob thomas @rapthomas35]

@iScotNews @WillHayCardiff All good tho cos u have forced me to go deeper to research
I respect your passion

[rob thomas @rapthomas35]

Fair point: having MPs at Westminster didn’t magically erase Ireland’s colonial history. But that history involved conquest, plantations, land dispossession, coercion and sectarian exclusion. Wales today is a very different constitutional case. Ireland doesn’t prove Wales is a colony.

[rob thomas @rapthomas35]

@Plaid_Cymru Yep
The fact that plaid are even contemplating it is great
We have to let Adam Price loose on helping businesses!

[rob thomas @rapthomas35]

@Plaid_Cymru That's an excellent move !
Llongyfarchiadau and thanks for being business friendly
Made me much more optimistic. Diolch